Exploring Johan Oviedo's potential role for the 2025 Pittsburgh Pirates

Johan Oviedo was a key part of the 2023 Pittsburgh Pirates’ rotation. He pitched 177.2 innings, the eighth-most in a single season from any Pirates starter over the last decade. He also provided solid results as well, working to a 4.31 ERA, 4.49 FIP, and 1.37 WHIP. Oviedo struck out 20.6% of opponents with a 10% walk rate and 0.96 HR/9.

Oviedo had his ups and downs in 2023. Of his 32 starts, 14 of them saw him go 6+ innings with two or fewer earned runs allowed, but he also had nine starts where he pitched five or fewer innings with 4+ earned runs allowed. But for a young starter who was getting their first full look as a major league rotation arm, it was an overall solid campaign.

The Pirates were likely hoping Oviedo could further build off of his success in 2023, but those hopes came to a screeching halt in late November, as the right-hander underwent Tommy John surgery, eliminating him for the entirety of the 2024 season. Since Oviedo’s surgery, his contribution window has changed once again, as the Pirates have had many pitchers take off.

Where does Johan Oviedo fit in Pirates' rotation when he returns from Tommy John surgery in 2025?

Mitch Keller, Paul Skenes, and Jared Jones have each had quality seasons of varying degrees, but have been a strong trio nonetheless. Luis Ortiz has looked good since stepping back into the rotation in June. Bailey Falter has also been a pleasant surprise. Along with that, the Pirates have multiple top pitching prospects on Triple-A Indy’s roster, including Bubba Chandler, Thomas Harrington, Mike Burrows, and Braxton Ashcraft.

The first three rotation spots definitely belong to Skenes/Jones/Keller. Chandler may make his major league debut late this year, which would put him in a prime position to compete for a rotation spot next season, at the very least. That would leave the final rotation spot to Oviedo, Ortiz, Falter, or one of the other top prospects the Pirates will likely enter camp with next year.

The Pirates may look to shake things up in the final rotation spot if they enter 2025 with a five-man rotation. Oviedo being the fifth starter would mean they would have five right-handed starters. With how well Falter has pitched this year, the Pirates may go into camp with the lefty penciled in as the team’s 5th starter.

So where does that leave Oviedo? The Pirates will likely be cautious with the repetitive righty's workload since he is coming off Tommy John surgery. If that is the case, then Oviedo may see time in the bullpen. He could take over a role similar to the one Ortiz served this year; he's mostly worked as a long reliever until he started to see his workload increase. Eventually, Ortiz worked himself back into the Pirates’ starting rotation, where he has given the Bucs multiple strong outings in recent weeks.

Getting Oviedo back will give the Bucs yet another starting pitching option on their already mountainous load of MLB-ready arms. But with all that pitching already on the roster, and with the righty returning from major surgery while having not thrown a single inning in over a year, Oviedo will likely have to build his workload up before seeing starts regularly again. Putting him in the bullpen where he can work as a long reliever/spot starter gives him that opportunity while still remaining an important cog to the pitching staff.