Five underrated Pittsburgh Pirates prospects who are off to good starts to 2024

Enmanuel Chapman

Enmanuel Chapman didn’t get much fanfare when the Pirates signed him during the off-season as one of their international signings. Chapman had struggled in the Cuban league, walking a ton of batters and allowing a ton of earned runs. On top of that, he wasn’t considered much of a prospect. But Chapman hasn’t let those things prevent him from starting the year off right.

Chapman has pitched 7.1 innings, all out of the bullpen for Greensboro, but has only allowed a single earned run. He has struck out nine batters in that time. Control was an issue for Chapman prior to signing with the Pirates, but he’s only allowed to free passes. in both cases, Chapman hit the strike zone at least twice, and it wasn’t called on him.

Chapman is an imposing presence on the mound. He’s 6’6”, 255-pounds while sitting mid-to-upper-90s with his fastball. The Pirates and Chapman agreed on a deal on December 15th worth $200K.

With Chapman dominating High-A batters to open the year and already in his age-25 season, I don’t see what reason there would be to keep Chapman at Greensboro beyond the month of May if he both stays healthy and keeps pitching extremely well. He was an older international signee, so let’s give him a real test and see what he can do against Double-A-level competition. He could end up being an interesting relief prospect to watch.

Garret Forrester

Garret Forrester isn’t the only underrated 2023 draft pick who is off to a phenomenal start to the season. The Bucs selected the corner infielder out of Oregon State with their third-round pick. Throughout college, Forrester displayed a pure hitting approach, hitting for some power but also contact and walking more often than he struck out.

Forrester’s first few games into 2024 did not go very well, but he’s caught fire since then. Over his last 59 plate appearances, Forrester is slashing .340/.475/.489. He has four doubles in this span, as well as a home run. Forrester has walked a ton with a 16.4% BB% but has also struck out a little more frequently than expected. He has a 25.4 percent K% during this stretch.

So far, the raw power is playing well at Bradenton. Forrester has a 92.7 MPH exit velocity. If he were to translate that to the Major Leagues, that would put him around the 90th percentile of hitters. Along with elite exit velo so far, he’s produced a strong 9.8% barrel rate. 

Forrester mostly played first base during college, only playing the hot corner seven times while at Oregon State. But the Pirates drafted Forrester as a third baseman. Another interesting thing is that Forrester is catching too, something he hasn’t done since high school at the latest prior to this year. He has a strong enough arm to play both at third base and behind the plate, but his range is the reason many expected him to land at first base. He has the instincts to play third. There’s not much to say about his skills behind the plate right now as he’s only appeared 70 innings so far, but of the few things to note, he has thrown out 25 percent of would-be base stealers but has also allowed two passed balls. 

Forrester could eventually develop into a bat this system needs. He has raw power and has displayed a good eye at the dish. He needs to cut the strikeouts down from what they currently are, but I wouldn’t worry too much about how his K% looks through less than 100 plate appearances.

Patrick Reilly

After the Pirates took Forrester in the third round, they would then go on to take two more college pitchers with their next two selections. One was right-hander Patrick Reilly out of Vanderbilt. Reilly was coming off a rough 2023 season with Vandy, turning in just a 5.77 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, and 2.17 K:BB ratio while walking 13.3 percent of the batters he faced in 48.8 innings.

Reilly bounced between Vanderbilt’s starting rotation and bullpen. He thrived out of their pen, but the Pirates apparently wanted to give Reilly at least one more shot to prove himself as a starting pitcher. So far, the early results are promising, and he is certainly putting up some extremely impressive numbers.

His ERA isn’t too impressive at 4.32. But beyond that, he has struck out 43.9 percent of the batters he faced with a walk rate a touch below 10 percent at 9.1 percent. His walk rate being that low is a massive development, as he struggled to hit the strike zone consistently as a college starter. His 1.08 HR/9 isn’t great, but a look at his underlying stats in the small sample size is promising. Reilly has a 2.72 FIP and an even lower 1.89 xFIP.

Reilly throws hard, sitting mid-90s but with a ton of ride on his four-seamer. Last season during his brief stay at Bradenton, his fastball averaged out with around 12 inches of vertical break. If the Pirates promoted him today, he’d be top 30 in vertical movement. It also helps he has about nine inches of horizontal break.

Reilly also throws a mid-80s slider, which is another above-average pitch. He also played around with a cutter last season, sitting in the upper 80s with the offering and having about 26 inches of vertical movement. He’ll also throw in a two-seamer and change-up. His sinker also sits the mid-90s but with a slightly more horizontal run.

Reilly being this good as a starter could be a massive revelation for the Pirates. He struggled greatly as a starter when Vanderbilt gave him the opportunity but now he looks like a completely different pitcher from those outings. Skenes is obviously the best player from the 2023 draft class, but Reilly is making a strong bid to be the second-best player so far from the same group.

Charles McAdoo

Both Forrester and Reilly were selected fairly early into the MLB draft last year. They went in the 5th round or earlier. But that isn’t the case for utility prospect Charles McAdoo. McAdoo was selected much later, as the Pirates took him in the 13th round. McAdoo has gotten off to a great start to both his pro career and 2024 and has done so while playing a ton of different positions.

McAdoo is providing Greensboro with a ton of offense right now. He only has 78 plate appearances under his belt but is batting .303/.397/.545. McAdoo is hitting for a ton of pop and already has four home runs and a .242 isolated slugging percentage. He is carrying a respectable 21.8 percent strikeout percentage while drawing walks 11.5 percent of the time. This has all resulted in an outstanding 170 wRC+.

So far, McAdoo has been one of the best hitters in the South Atlantic League. McAdoo ranks sixth in wRC+, OPS, and wOBA among the qualified hitters at this level. He also ranks top ten or higher in each of the three triple-slash stats. McAdoo’s power has also been top tier, ranking 8th in ISO.

McAdoo’s defense can best be defined as “jack of all trades, master of none.” He doesn’t project as a particularly good defender anywhere, maybe aside from first base. However, the only non-catcher/pitcher positions he hasn’t played at least once since getting drafted have been shortstop and center field. Most of his innings have been logged at the hot corner this year, but he was primarily a second baseman throughout college.

McAdoo is a hit first prospect. He has a short leg kick, but is a bit stiff in his swing. He is 6’1”, 180-LBS and can generate decent raw power numbers. So far, there hasn’t been a league or level of baseball he hasn’t excelled at. Greensboro has a hitter friendly park, but the park/league adjusted wRC+ speaks for itself.