Four college first basemen the Pittsburgh Pirates should keep on their draft radar

The Pittsburgh Pirates haven't had a good first baseman in ages. The last 1B to post at least +3.0 fWAR was Kevin Young. Their last first baseman to have two consecutive seasons of at least +2.0 fWAR was Jason Thompson. First base is still a massive issue for the Bucs, and the system doesn't have any prominent up and coming names who could help resolve some of the issues.

First base is typically not an easy position to fill via the draft. That's because most first basemen formerly played other positions, either during their amateur career in school or internationally, or early into their pro career. While most first basemen played other positions in college, high school, or as an amateur elsewhere, and while this year's first base draft class is shallow, there are still some 1 B's the Pirates should keep on their radar during this year's draft class.

Cole Mathis

Starting off, we have College of Charleston first baseman Cole Mathis. Mathis has experience as a two-way player, having tossed 100 frames and playing the field. Mathis is in the midst of an outstanding college season and could go within the first two or three rounds of the draft.

Mathis is currently slashing .300/.429/.620 through 187 plate appearances. The right-handed hitter is on pace for a second season in a row with more walks than strikeouts and holds a 16% BB% and 12.8% strikeout rate at the time of writing this. Power is also a part of Mathis' game, and he has already hit 11 home runs, surpassing his 2023 total in 59 fewer trips to the plate with an ISO clocking in at .320.

One promising aspect of Mathis' resume is his numbers in the Cape Cod League. In 147 plate appearances, Mathis hit .318/.381/.667. Despite using a wood bat, Mathis had 11 home runs and had a .348 isolated slugging percentage. The change to the wood bat also didn't affect Mathis' swing and miss, only striking out 17% of the time. But his walk rate did drop from 16.7% to 8.2%.

Mathis has an almost golf-like swing. But he's able to turn on things and hit the ball with some serious authority with little effort. Mathis is 6'1" and 210 pounds, so he has a strong built frame. He has a very strong arm for a first baseman, given that he also has 100 innings logged as a pitcher. He typically works in the low 90s on the mound and projects as a back-of-the-rotation arm if a team were to make him a two-way player. However, that strong arm has let him play a few games at third base. He's a fringy runner, so a team could try him out in left field, too.

Mathis has done nothing but hit throughout college. He's been able to handle velo and in a wood-bat league. He has the potential to have both an above-average hit tool and above-average power. First base is likely his long-term position, but he could potentially occasionally play some third base and left field as well.

Jared Jones

Not to be confused with the Pirates' right-handed pitcher of the same name, this Jared Jones is a first baseman for Louisiana State University. Jones has top-of-the-line raw power and the potential to be a 30-home run threat, but that also comes with some major concerns about his hit tool and ability to make contact consistently.

So far, in 199 plate appearances, Jones is slashing .299/.442/.758 with a 1.200 OPS in the SEC. Jones already has 19 home runs on the season. His isolated slugging percentage clocks in at .459. For reference of how high that is, Barry Bonds had a .450 ISO in 2004. Overall, Jones has 33 home runs in 101 college games. Jones also walks a ton and has an 18.1% walk rate this year.

There is one pretty obvious flaw in Jones' game, and that's the strikeouts. He has gone down on strike three 24.6% of the time. He also got overwhelmed with the K last year at the Cape Cod League, striking out 23 times in 67 plate appearances, resulting in a K% of 34.3%. Obviously, that's a major red flag, but there is one silver lining. That's the fact he cut his strikeout rate down from 34.2% last year for LSU.

Jones is an intimidating presence in the box. Not only does he pounce on mistake pitches, but he is 6'5"250 pounds. But that big frame also hinders his speed and overall range. Jones has displayed a well-above-average arm, so a team could try him in left field, but knowing the risk of his range, it might not be a great idea. Jones also caught in high school and has crouched behind the plate for a few games. Although he hasn't caught much, the Pirates have tried something similar with Garret Forrester this year, so a team could also see if he can handle himself well as a backstop.

Jones has a long swing, which is where many pitchers take advantage of him and get him to strikeout. From the video I've seen, there might be a slight hitch on pitches higher in the zone. But even though he has a longer swing, he moves the bat through the zone very quickly. That, along with his large frame, could lead to elite raw power in the big leagues someday.

But Jones has intense raw power. He's the kind of prospect that, if he develops even a 45-grade hit tool, could hit 30+ homers regularly. It is a high-ceiling/low-floor toolset, but Jones is arguably the third-best college first baseman in this year's draft class. He might go sometime during the third or fourth round.

Blake Burke

While Jones might be the third-best college first baseman in this year's draft, Blake Burke is arguably the second-best between Jones and Nick Kurtz. The University of Tennessee prospect has steadily improved his game each year and is putting together a promising season this year.

Through 189 plate appearances, Burke is batting .388/.450/.759. Burke has already topped his 2023 total bases amount in nearly 100 fewer plate appearances. He's gone yard 14 times with an isolated slugging percentage of .371. One thing that does standout in his numbers are his 21 doubles. He's never hit more than six in any previous year.

Burke's 10.1% walk rate isn't outstanding, but it's not bad either. When he first got to college ball, he was striking out about 30% of the time (30.8% to be exact). However, he's steadily cut that down to 17.4% last year and now currently sitting at 14.8%. His swing decisions have improved, but he can still get thrown off by off-speed.

Burke's raw power is up there with Jones. He's also a physical in the box at 6'3", 240-LBS. But he can also swing the bat very fast. A combination of bat speed and physical strength gives him the potential to have plus game power in the future. But his hit tool has more potential than Jones.

He is definitely a first baseman through and through. He's a well below-average runner with limited range in the field. Plus, his arm definitely plays best at first base. Burke did play some left field in 2022 in the California Collegiate League, but he's best at first, where he's a solid 45-50 defender.

Burke steadily cutting down his strikeout rate puts him on track to potentially be a late second or early third-round pick this year. He'll likely be the second college 1B off the board after Kurtz. There's a chance for plus power and an average hit tool here with Burke.