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How much history can Skenes and Jones make in 2024?

By Abigail Miskowiec |
Chicago Cubs v Pittsburgh Pirates
Chicago Cubs v Pittsburgh Pirates / Justin Berl/GettyImages
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The Pirates entered the American Association and, thus, major organized baseball 142 years ago. While the past few years (even decades) of heartbreak might cloud some fans’ memories, Pittsburgh can claim dozens of Hall of Famers and countless standout seasons. With all that weight of history, is it possible that a pair of rookies could land in the history books as the greatest Pirates pitching duo of all time?

Jared Jones is already rewriting history books, stacking up the strikeouts, and making opposing batters look foolish. FanGraphs’ PitchingBot system credits Jones with the best overall makeup in the Majors so far, largely thanks to his top-ranking fastball. He also boasts a top-five changeup according to that model. Jones has also produced the top whiff rate in the Majors this season, according to Statcast.

Paul Skenes joined the big leagues on Saturday and, despite iffy fastball control, wowed the crowd. He generated a whiff rate of 35 percent, which would be good for a top-three ranking if he had enough innings to qualify. The Cubs played spoiler this weekend, taking two out of a three-game set, but Jones and Skenes have an opportunity for swift revenge. On Thursday and Friday, Chicago will get another taste of a conundrum that will face teams throughout the season – a Jones-Skenes 1-2 punch – as the rookies are slated to go back-to-back at Wrigley Field this Thursday and Friday. If this duo lives up to the hype over the course of the 2024 season, they could enter an elite company in the history of both the Majors and the franchise.

Can Pirates pitchers Jones and Skenes break through in a crowded rookie class?

Teammates nabbing Rookie of the Year votes isn’t actually that uncommon. Teams with strong farm clubs can regularly churn out top prospects. Just consider the Reds, who had a trio of rookies garner votes in 2023 and 2021. Usually, though, those teammates are position players or a combo of a position player and a pitcher. Occasionally, a pitching duo gets attention. Rarely, are those teammates both starters.

In fact, one would need to go back to the 2017 Rockies to find Rookie of the Year votes handed to players who share a starting rotation. That year, German Marquez and Kyle Freeman performed serviceably for Colorado and racked up 3.5 WAR each. They both pitched more than 150 innings and helped guide their club to the postseason, although neither made an appearance in the Wild Card Game loss to Arizona.

Even if Jones and Skenes run into rookie road bumps, their pure stuff will likely garner some down-ballot votes. While many considered Skenes to be the obvious pick for NL Rookie of the Year and more recently Jones has received ROY buzz, they have a division rival to contend with. The Cubs’ Shota Imanaga has been lights-out, and if Chicago returns to the postseason, he may upset the Pirates’ top prospect.

In Pirates history, Jones and Skenes stand out, but are they destined to be franchise legends?

Jones’s early season success has him close to the top of the franchise leaderboards in WHIP and strikeouts per nine innings. Once opposing batters get a feel for his stuff, I anticipate the hits will start coming, bringing down his WHIP. I can see, though, a world where Jones and Skenes continue to generate whiffs and amass strikeouts. Especially with stuff like this:

Let’s say that Jones and Skenes make 25 starts each and average six strikeouts per start. (Jones has already made eight starts and has averaged seven Ks.) Even if their innings are limited, they will end up among the franchise’s single-season leaders in strikeouts per nine innings. The only other Pirates players to land in the Top 10 in this category in a single season were Francisco Liriano and Gerrit Cole in 2015.

This, of course, assumes that Jones and Skenes stay up with the big-league club for much of the 2024 season, and given the fact that Skenes has pitched a grand total of four innings (plus two batters before getting pulled without recording an out in the fifth), this may not be a safe assumption.

Will this Pirates rotation rank among the franchise greats?

While the Pirates have had their fair share of vaunted starting pitchers, their franchise strikeout records remain in remarkable striking distance. (For example, Mitch Keller’s 2023 campaign, which was good but not great, landed him in the franchise’s top 10 single-season records for strikeouts and Ks per nine.) One feat, in particular, seems destined to be matched as long as the “grizzled vet” Keller maintains his career trajectory.

Only twice in Pittsburgh history have the Pirates had three pitchers surpass the 150 K mark. In 1969, Bob Veale, Dock Ellis, and Bob Moose tossed 213, 173, and 165 strikeouts, respectively. Steve Blass just missed the mark with 147. In 1983, Larry McWilliams, John Candelaria, and Rick Rhoden put up 199, 157, and 153 strikeouts. If Keller, who struck out 210 batters last season and has already passed the 50 K mark, keeps his pace and Skenes and Jones stay in the rotation, they could easily join this club.

The expectations and hopes are certainly high for this rookie duo, and prospects like Bubba Chandler and Anthony Solometo are waiting in the wings. With any luck, 2024 could be the season that Pirates fans look back on as the groundwork for long-term success.

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