How the Randy Arozarena trade positively impacts the Pittsburgh Pirates

The first big domino of the 2024 trade deadline has fallen. The Seattle Mariners have recently acquired now former Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Randy Arozarena for three prospects. As of right now, two of the prospects are known, while the third is a player to be named later. But, in the bigger picture, this trade could set the tone for the rest of the outfield trade market, and based on the return, it could put the Pittsburgh Pirates in a very favorable spot.

The Rays are acquiring outfield prospect Aidan Smith and right-hander Brody Hopkins from the M's. Neither of these prospects are considered top ten prospects in Seattle's system. Baseball America ranks Smith as their 14th-best prospect, while Hopkins comes in next at 15. MLB Pipeline ranks Smith as the 12th-best prospect, while Hopkins is their 22nd-best, though both of those rankings came prior to Opening Day.

The equivalent for the Pirates would be Hunter Barco and Lonnie White Jr., based on Baseball America's top prospect list, or Barco and Jesus Castillo, going by MLB Pipeline's list. Most Pirate fans would likely have made either trade for Arozarena and his 2.5 years of control. That could be a positive sign for things to come for the Pirates, who are in the market for at least one more outfielder.

Randy Arozarena trade bodes well for Pirates' outfield search

Now, assuming that the PTBNL isn’t a Shane Baz situation, this package seems a bit light. Sure, both Hopkins and Smith are high-ceiling players, but to not give up a top ten prospect for someone who had a wRC+ between 124 and 127 from 2021 through 2023 while posting three straight 20/20 seasons? He also happens to be on pace to potentially do it again, and comes with affordable control through 2026. That's a huge bargain for the Mariners.

The Pirates have been heavily linked to Miami Marlins outfielder Jazz Chisholm in recent days. Like Arozarena, Chisholm has two years of control remaining beyond 2024. Both are free agents after the 2026 season. While Chisholm is making less money this year and is younger than Arozarena, he also has less of a track record. 

Another outfielder with two years of control remaining the Pirates have been attached to in the rumor mill is Taylor Ward. Ward has been in a slump recently, but is above the 80th percentile of xBA, xSLG%, and barrel rate. Ward also makes less money than Arozarena this year, but has more of a track record than Chisholm. He is a year older than Arozarena, but the point still remains that Ward has a contract similar to Arozarena's and is of a similar age.

This was the first big trade as we approach the trade deadline. With the Pirates needing outfielders, Arozarena netting two prospects -- both of whom were not considered top ten prospects in their respective organizations prior to the trade -- could be a huge positive for the Bucs. It sets the tone, and they might be able to acquire Chisholm or Ward without having to give up any of Thomas Harrington, Anthony Solometo, Braxton Ashcraft, or even Mike Burrows. Some mix of Patrick Reilly, Hunter Barco, Michael Kennedy, Jun-Seok Shim, Mitch Jebb, or Lonnie White Jr. might be enough for the Pirates to secure a solid outfielder for the stretch run.