The most unlucky hitter in baseball should be on the Pittsburgh Pirates' trade radar

Luck can be a massive factor in baseball. You can do everything right and still hit into an out. This summarizes the season of Miami Marlins' outfielder Jesus Sanchez to a T. With the Pittsburgh Pirates needing both a decent bat and outfield help, Sanchez, who has been the most unlucky hitter in baseball, should be on their trade radar.

Sanchez has batted a meager .246/.298/.353 with a .291 wOBA and 87 wRC+, a far cry from the .253/.327/.450 slash, .334 wOBA, and 109 wRC+ he posted in 2023. While Sanchez has reduced his strikeout rate from 26.6% to 20.9%, his walk rate has also plummeted from 9.5% to 5.5%. After hitting 14 homers in 402 plate appearances and having a .197 isolated slugging percentage last season, Sanchez has only hit four dingers in 185 plate appearances with a .108 ISO.

Even though Sanchez's numbers are down, there are many things he's doing right at the dish. Almost nobody is hitting the ball harder than Sanchez. His 94.2 MPH exit velocity is the sixth-best in baseball, ranking in the 98th percentile. Only Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Oneil Cruz, Shohei Ohtani, and Vlad Guerrero Jr. have a higher exit velo. His 12.2% barrel rate is also the 48th best in the sport and ranks in the 82nd percentile.

Sanchez's exit velo is up almost four MPH from last season, but his barrel rate is the same. He's also swinging and missing less frequently. His whiff rate in 2023 was 30.1%, but now it's 25.8%. He's being more aggressive and making more contact, but at the same time, he's hitting the ball much harder and making the same amount of quality contact as last year (12.2% barrel rate in '23).

The Pirates should consider trading for Jesus Sanchez this summer.

A look at Jesus Sanchez's expected stats tells a much different picture than what you see on the surface. His expected batting average is .287, which is in the 87th percentile; that marks the 20th largest negative difference between BA and xBA. His expected slugging percentage is even better at .507, ranking in the 90th percentile and featuring by far the game's largest negative gap. The next closest is Colt Keith, with a .286 SLG% but a .406 xSLG%. Finally, there's his expected weighted on-base average at .360, which ties him with Kansas City Royals' outfielder MJ Melendez for the largest negative gap between wOBA and xwOBA. Another predictive stat, deserved runs created plus (DRC+), puts him at 106, even higher than his mark in 2023.

Along with good numbers under the hood, Sanchez has control remaining through the 2027 season. With all these factors combined, Sanchez would be a great trade candidate for the Pirates to consider going after if the Marlins put him on the trading block.

He's under control for the next four seasons, is hitting the ball extremely hard, is making more contact, and has very promising numbers beyond that. Eventually, a combination of more contact and more quality contact will lead to better results. When Sanchez eventually turns it around, he will do it in a big way, and hopefully the Pirates will realize that and will consider trading for him this summer.