Oneil Cruz's potential in center field could be massive for Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates are making an interesting position change, moving shortstop Oneil Cruz to center field. Cruz has had his struggles at shortstop this year. He hasn’t been as bad as his error total may tell you, but with -8 defensive runs saved and -3 outs above average, Cruz ranks fourth to last and fifth to last in each respective defensive stat.

But Cruz’s offensive upside will play anywhere. He is in the 99th percentile of average exit velocity, the 97th percentile of barrel rate, and above the 75th percentile of xBA, xSLG%, and xwOBA. But just how good of a center fielder could Oneil Cruz be once he moves to the position?

At the time of writing this, Cruz has a .265/.325/.468 triple-slash. This has resulted in a .337 wOBA and 115 wRC+. If Cruz were a center fielder already, these hitting stats would make him a borderline top-five hitter at his position. Cruz would rank sixth in batting average, on-base percentage, and wRC+, as well as fifth in slugging percentage and OPS, and finally fourth in wOBA. 

Can Oneil Cruz find defensive ability to cover center field for Pirates?

There are two things certain about his defensive ability in center field. One is that he has the speed to play center. Cruz is in the 87th percentile of sprint speed in baseball at 28.7 feet/second. Cruz should also have no problem making the throw from the grass. He has the best arm in the game at shortstop, as his throws average 95.6 MPH. No other infielder has displayed better arm strength this year. Cruz’s ability to jump on a batted ball has also been impressive.

The big question will be his route running. Cruz may get good jumps, have the speed to track it down, and the arm to get it in quickly, but fielding a fly ball in the outfield is much more different than fielding a pop fly at shortstop. At the very least, he has the experience of seeing the ball come off the bat at a middle infield position.

If Cruz can handle the transition with grace, then he’ll easily be a top-five center fielder. Someone who hits as well as Cruz does with average defense in center field is very valuable. But in the event Cruz excels in center field, then he may be a borderline top-three center fielder in baseball. 30+ homer upside with good defense will always make him one of the best at his position.