Paul Skenes' historic season puts him in the pitching pantheon (not just for rookies)

Pittsburgh Pirates’ rookie sensation Paul Skenes has had a season for the ages. In 20 starts/131 innings pitched, Skenes has a 1.99 ERA, 2.48 FIP, and 0.96 WHIP. He’s punched out nearly a third of his opponents ,with a 32.9% strikeout rate, and has a strong 6.3% walk rate to pair with it. But he’s not just having a good rookie season. He's wrapping up an historically dominant campaign on all fronts.

First off, no rookie post-integration has ever had an ERA+ over 200 in 20+ starts ... until Skenes. Skenes is sitting at 213, and no one comes remotely close to him. The next closest in 20+ starts is Jose Fernandez, who sat at 176. That is a 37-point difference. For reference, that is about the same difference between the league average and San Diego Padres right-hander Michael King, who has a 140 ERA+ and 3.04 ERA.

Skenes’ ability to strike out batters and limit walks at an elite rate is also unprecedented in the integration era. Only six rookies have had a K:BB ratio over 5.00, including Skenes. However, Skenes is the only one to do it with a K/9 ratio of over 10.0. He is currently sitting at 11.5. Batters do not reach base against him, as he's finishing the sixth rookie season ever with a WHIP under 1.00.

Baseball hasn’t seen someone this dominant at this young an age since Dwight Gooden. Gooden (1985) and Skenes this year represent the only pitchers in baseball history with an ERA+ over 200 in 20+ starts in their age-22 season or younger. Both seasons also include sub-1.00 WHIPs. 

Paul Skenes' rookie season with Pirates isn't just good. It's historically great.

This isn’t just arguably the best rookie season from a pitcher of all time, but one of the best seasons from a pitcher in recent baseball history. Only 27 pitchers since the integration era have an ERA+ over 200 in 20+ starts and 130+ innings pitched. The previous five to perform this feat prior to Skenes were Justin Verlander (2022), Jacob deGrom (2018), Chris Sale (2018), Blake Snell (2018), and Corey Kluber (2017).

In the 26 other instances of a pitcher having an ERA+ over 200 in 20+ starts and 130 IP, 24 finished top-five in Cy Young voting, at the very least. The two that did not finish in the top five include Rich Harden in 2008 and Billy Pearce in 1955, a year before the first Cy Young award was handed out.

On a pure rate basis, Skenes' freshman campaign best compares to Pedro Martinez’s 1997 season. That year, the Hall of Fame pitcher had a 219 ERA+, 0.93 WHIP, 2.39 FIP, 2.5 BB/9, and 11.4 K/9. Skenes has a 213 ERA+, 0.96 WHIP, 2.48 FIP, 2.2 BB/9, and 11.5 K/9. Martinez played a full season, of course, but to be even closely comparable to that level of dominance makes Skenes a special kind of talent.

Skenes is dominating opponents at a level that is next to unprecedented. The right-hander is making baseball history during each of his starts. He should be the unanimous Rookie of the Year winner, and it wouldn’t even be a huge shock if he is a Cy Young finalist. He’d likely fall short in that category, given Chris Sale’s ultra-dominant comeback season and Skenes' lack of volume in comparison, but he’s proven to be one of the best pitchers in baseball in his rookie year by putting up historically great numbers.