Pirates vs. Dodgers prediction and odds for Thursday, July 6

Can the Pirates score enough runs to win without Jack Suwinski in the lineup against the left-handed Julio Urias today?
Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Jack Suwinski (65)
Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Jack Suwinski (65) / Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Last week, Julio Urias made his not so triumphant return to the Los Angeles Dodgers starting rotation. He hadn’t pitched in the major leagues since May 18, and it showed. Urias is 5-5 with a 4.94 ERA this season and will make his 12th start of the year and second against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Pirates squandered multiple bases loaded opportunities last night to drop their fourth in five games and fall to 40-46 on the year. The Dodgers are 48-38 which is the second best record in the NL West. Johan Oviedo will oppose Urias and has a 4.61 ERA and 3-9 record in 17 starts this season. 

The Dodgers are favorites at home, but could Pittsburgh force a series split in the finale against a familiar foe on the mound? Let’s take a look at the odds. 

Pirates vs. Dodgers odds, run line and total

Pirates vs. Dodgers prediction and pick

Yesterday, the Pirates had that game on a platter and said no thank you. The team had the bases loaded in the seventh and ninth inning respectively and came up with zero runs. Now, Jack Suwinski, who drove in three of their four runs with a fourth inning home run last night, will likely be out of the lineup against the left-handed Urias. Suwinski has 19 home runs, is the Pirates most fearsome bat, but typically doesn't play against lefties.

Back on April 27th, the Pirates knocked around Julio Urias for six runs on seven hits in 5.2 innings. However, that was a very different team. The Pirates have Henry Davis and Nick Gonzeles in the lineup every day now, and they’re both good against lefties, but this feels like a great spot for Urias to finally get back on track. The Pirates are 23rd in team OPS against lefties since Davis came up on June 19th despite his 1.012 OPS. 

Johan Oviedo had a disastrous outing last trip to the mound, but was very good across a near-two month sample size. Oviedo has a 4.05 FIP which is lower than his ERA. That is typically a solid indicator that positive regression is coming for a pitcher. I’ll take the under in the series finale, but do like the Dodgers to win it. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change