Pirates vs. Marlins prediction and odds for Friday, June 23

Jun 18, 2023; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA;  Pittsburgh Pirates designated hitter Bryan Reynolds (10)
Jun 18, 2023; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates designated hitter Bryan Reynolds (10) / Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

The Pittsburgh Pirates are still trying to stay afloat the NL Central despite a massive losing streak, can the team find its form against the Marlins?

The Pirates do have a tendency to hit lefties well, a top 10 unit, and will get to face a second straight Marlins lefty on Friday in Jesus Luzardo. Miami has built a formidable record and fine standing in the National League Wild Card race, but has done so with a negative run differential.

Is that leading the Marlins to be overvalued against Pittsburgh?

Here are the odds for Friday's matchup:

Pirates vs. Marlins odds, run line and total

Pirates vs. Marlins prediction and pick

The Marlins may be in the playoff picture, but the team maintains a negative run differential, bottom 10 in that category. The team has been incredibly fortunate to get to this record and I believe we can see regression real soon.

Enter the Pirates, a team that has hit lefties well all season, top 10 in OPS against southpaws, and have a capable starter in Johan Oviedo, who has allowed two or fewer runs in four of his last five starts.

Meanwhile, the Fish will counter with Luzardo, the fast throwing left hander to try and keep down the Pirates bats. However, Luzardo has a high walk rate and is only averaging about 5.5 innings pitched. His inability to limit free bases can put himself in trouble early and put extra pressure on the Marlins bullpen.

Given the Marlins overrated record, I am eager to fade them as big favorites even if the Pirates are struggling. The team has been capable against left handed pitching all year and I'll take the juicy price at an upset.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.