Pirates vs. Mets prediction and odds for Tuesday, August 15 (Falter's First Win)

The Pirates starting pitching staff has been disastrous, but maybe not as bad as the Mets bullpen, other than yesterday.
Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Bailey Falter (44)
Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Bailey Falter (44) / Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
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Yesterday, the New York Mets took a sloppy 7-2 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates at Citi Field. The Mets did not get a good start from Carlos Carrasco, but he was able to hand things off to the bullpen with a lead and they dominated from there. Quinn Priester struggled even more than Carrasco, allowing six runs over five innings in the loss which dropped them to 53-66 on the season, a game worse than the now 54-65 Mets.

For Game 2 of this three-game series the Pirates will send newly acquired Bailey Falter to make his third start in black-and-gold and his 10th this year. He will be opposed by 3-7 David Peterson who has a 5.61 ERA in 19 games. Falter is 0-7 with a 5.21 ERA.

Let’s get into the odds for another one at Citi Field. 

Pirates vs. Mets odds, run line and total

Pirates vs. Mets prediction and pick

Falter spent his career before the Pirates in the NL East, but he did not face the Mets this year. Even if he had it would’ve been a very different Mets team than the one taking the field now. The Pirates are also a new look team from the first time they played earlier in the year, but Peterson did not take the mound in that series.

Over the past 30 days the Mets are 25th in OPS against left-handed pitchers at .643, but that’s still two spots better than the Pirates who are 27th at .609. The Pirates really haven’t been able to hit lefties and Peterson has been good, in small doses lately, so it could be a bad recipe. Peterson hasn’t gone longer than 3.2 innings since July 2, so it’ll be up to the New York bullpen again.

Over the last 30 days the Mets are 28th in bullpen ERA with a 5.68 while Pittsburgh, who has a fresh bullpen after Osvaldo Bido was able to save them and finish the final three innings after Priester exited, is 10th at 3.88. 

I have little to no confidence in Bailey Falter, he doesn’t miss bats and often gets hit very hard, but the New York bullpen is taxed from yesterday and has been very bad recently. That’s enough to make me back the Pirates even after an awful performance yesterday. 

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE


Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change