Pirates vs. Padres prediction and odds for Tuesday, July 25

For some reason the Pirates just keep beating the Padres and at this point we have to back the Bucs as big underdogs on the road.
Pittsburgh Pirates first baseman Carlos Santana (41)
Pittsburgh Pirates first baseman Carlos Santana (41) / Ray Acevedo-USA TODAY Sports

There isn’t much that comes easy to the 44-56 Pittsburgh Pirates, but for some reason, beating the San Diego Padres does. The Padres are 48-53 after the 8-4 loss at home to Pittsburgh yesterday. The Pirates got a great performance from Carlos Santana who homered twice in the win. Today, they’ll lean on another veteran, Rich Hill, who will make his 21st start for the Pirates this season. 

Hill is 7-9 in his previous 20 starts and has a 4.84 ERA. He will be opposed by another veteran lefty, Blake Snell who is 6-8 but with a 2.67 ERA in 20 starts. Snell has been great, but will he be good enough to end the Pirates string of four straight wins over the Padres this season? Let’s get into the odds for this one. 

Pirates vs. Padres odds, run line and total

Pirates vs. Padres prediction and pick

I really don’t understand it. The Pirates just always find a way to beat the Padres. It’s not like the Padres are a great team, but they have much more talent than Pittsburgh and frankly every other team in the league has been able to beat the Pirates and rather easily. I’m not sure it’s possible to find a justification for betting on the Pirates and yet they’ve won four-in-a-row against this team. 

Blake Snell has been excellent this season and the left hander he will take Jack Suwinski’s bat out of the lineup. Suwinski, who homered yesterday, is Pittsburgh’s biggest power threat and he’s hit lefties well enough lately, but Derek Shelton almost refuses to give him an opportunity against left-handed starters. Suwinski is 17th in the MLB in OPS at .862. Without him, the Pirates lineup that already ranks 22nd in runs scored this month with a team OPS of .659 will be even weaker.

The Pirates are 19th in OPS against lefties this year, but the Padres are ninth, so once again; advantage San Diego. In July the Pirates have a .650 OPS against lefties while San Diego has a .718. I don’t have any good reason for it, we have to ride this bizarre hot streak against the Padres and bet the Pirates as big underdogs. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change