Pittsburgh Pirates 2023 Opening Day Roster Prediction Version 3.0

Another month of roster moves is in the rearview mirror, so what does the latest Opening Day roster prediction look like for the Pittsburgh Pirates?

We are just two weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting to Bradenton. With this, spring training 2023 will be underway for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Slowly but surely the winter months are winding down, with warmer months and baseball just around the corner.

While the 2023 Pittsburgh Pirates are still not expected to compete for a postseason berth, general manager Ben Cherington has spent the offseason improving the team's roster and talent. If nothing else, this should make the Pirates a more entertaining and intriguing club this season.

The biggest change to the roster in the month of January, obviously, was the addition of Andrew McCutchen. Bringing one of the best players in franchise history back to Pittsburgh not only improves the team's lineup, but it also adds some much needed excitement for the fanbase. It was also a much needed good PR move for the Pirates.

Now that the calendar has flipped to February and the start of spring training is in site it's time for an updated look at projecting the team's Opening Day roster. Things can obviously change between now and then, but based off players currently under contract with the Pirates this is the latest stab at predicting the 26 players who will head to Cincinnati on March 30th.

Catchers - Austin Hedges, Tyler Heineman

This is a projection that has not changed since the last roster projection and it is one that is unlikely to change. Barring something unforeseen, Austin Hedges and Tyler Heineman will be the catching duo for the Pirates on Opening Day.

When the Pittsburgh Pirates signed Hedges on December 20th he immediately became the team's top catcher. Signing Hedges in free agency came shortly after the team has re-signed Heineman to a minor league deal.

Heineman's minor league deal includes an invite to spring training. Last season, Heineman played in 52 games with the Pirates. He also played in 10 games with the Toronto Blue Jays. Unless the Pirates add another catcher between now and Opening Day, Heineman will backup Hedges.

As for Hedges, he is undeniably one of the best defensive catchers in baseball. Since making his MLB debut in 2015 Hedges leads all major league catchers in Defensive Runs Saved. While this duo will leave a lot to be desired offensively, it could be one of the best defensive catching duos in baseball.

Outfielder - Bryan Reynolds, Andrew McCutchen, Ji-Hwan Bae, Jack Suwinski, Connor Joe

Could Bryan Reynolds still be traded? It's certainly possible. But as of now he is still a Pittsburgh Pirate. Until that changes, Reynolds is the team's starting center fielder and he is one of the best at the position in the National League.

After Reynolds, the outfield gets murky. Not necessarily in terms of who will make the roster, but more in terms of who will play where.

Jack Suwinski will likely start any time the Pirates face a right-handed pitcher. Look for McCutchen and/or Connor Joe to platoon with him. Both McCutchen and Joe could see starts at designated hitter against lefties as well, and Joe could see some starts at first base against lefties.

The real wild card here could be Ji-Hwan Bae. At this point Bae has nothing left to prove in the minors. While he was an infielder for most of his professional career, as the 2022 season went on, both in the minors and the majors, the Pirates made a concentrated effort to get Bae reps in the outfield.

It would not be a surprise to see Bae earn a starting job in the outfield when the 2023 season begins. Even if he is not a starter, between the outfield and the infield, Bae should earn plenty of playing time as the Pirates give him every opportunity to prove what he can do in the majors.

Starting pitchers - Mitch Keller, Roansy Contreras, Rich Hill, Johan Oviedo, JT Brubaker/Vince Velasquez

For a variety of reasons, it is not uncommon to see an MLB club roll with a six-man starting rotation early in the season. It would not be a surprise to see the Pittsburgh Pirates go this route when the 2023 season begins.

Mitch Keller and Roansy Contreras are locks to be in the team's Opening Day rotation. Keller took a huge step forward last season and Contreras appears to be budding into one of the best young starters in the NL. As Noah wrote about last week, they could be a very underrated one-two punch.

Veteran free agent addition Rich Hill is also a lock to be in the team's Opening Day starting rotation. After Hill, things begin to get a bit murkier. Not due to a lack of options, but due to having multiple options.

There could be some thought to having Johan Oviedo begin the season either in the bullpen or at Triple-A Indianapolis. However, this would be a mistake. In seven starts with the Pirates last September the young righty posted a 3.23 ERA, 3.47 FIP, with an 11.9% walk rate, and a 20.9% strikeout rate. Oviedo has nothing left to prove in the minors and it's time to see if his long-term MLB home is as a starting pitcher, especially after last September made it appear that this is indeed the case.

This then leaves 2022 Opening Day starter JT Brubaker and free agent addition Vince Velasquez. Both Brubaker and Velasquez will make the Opening Day roster, the only question is in what capacity. Brubaker struggled in his first two starts and his final start last season, but looked like a quality no. 3 or no. 4 starting pitcher in the 25 starts in between.

While Velasquez may project better as a reliever when he was signed Cherington said the Pirates look at him as having starting pitcher qualities. That was also before the team signed Hill to a one-year deal.

Could the Pirates roll with a six-man rotation featuring both Brubaker and Velasquez to start the season? Could one or both be used to piggyback with other starting pitchers? That remains to be seen, but both will make the Opening Day roster. More than likely, one of them will move to the bullpen to start the season.

Bullpen - David Bednar, Jarlín García, Jose Hernandez, Robert Stephenson, Colin Holderman, Wil Crowe, Chase De Jong

As was mentioned with the starting pitchers, one of Brubaker or Velasquez will likely start the season in the bullpen. This would make this an eight-man group, which is likely what manager Derek Shelton will desire to start the season.

Overall, there are a lot of question marks about the bullpen. It would not be a surprise to see Cherington add to this bunch before Opening Day. Outside of David Bednar, Jarlín Garcín, and Colin Holderman, odds are, no one is a lock for the Opening Day bullpen.

Jose Hernandez's odds of making the team are strong as he's a Rule 5 Draft player and the Pirates will want a second left-handed reliever, but if he struggles in spring training that's no guarantee. Chase De Jong likely enters spring training with a leg up on the competition as well. He has no minor league options and is coming off a career year. However, prior to 2023, he had struggled his entire MLB career so it would not be a shocker to see the Pirates leave him off the roster.

Robert Stephenson pitched well last September after he was claimed off waivers. However, like De Jong, he has a poor career track record. It's far from a guarantee Stephenson makes the team, but with his potential and what he flashed last September he probably makes the cut.

Wil Crowe is the opposite of Stephenson and De Jong in that he started last season strong before limping to the finish line. Combine this with him struggling throughout his career prior to last season, and it would not be a surprise to see his projected roster spot go to someone else.

Youngster Colin Selby is a fast-rising prospect who could force his way onto the roster with a strong spring. Yohan Ramirez, who quietly pitched well for the Pirates last season, could do something similar. Both of these pitchers could throw wrenches into the projected Opening Day bullpen. If he's fully healthy, Yerry De Los Santos can not be overlooked, either. The fact these three have minor league options remaining will likely work against them, though.