Pittsburgh Pirates 2024 Opening Day Roster Projection 2.0

The start of spring training is right around the corner for the Pittsburgh Pirates. So, let's take a stab at their Opening Day roster projection 2.0.

As the calendar flips to February the start of spring training is just around in the corner. In two weeks, pitchers and catchers will report to Bradenton to kick off spring training 2024 for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

With January now in the rearview mirror, it is time for another projection of the team's Opening Day roster. So, today, we will dive into our Opening Day roster projection 2.0 for the 2024 Pirates. With that said, let's dive into taking a look at how the Pirate roster could look on March 28th in Miami.

Infield - Ke'Bryan Hayes, Oneil Cruz, Liover Peguero, Rowdy Tellez, Connor Joe

This is also one that has seen little change. Ke'Bryan Hayes is the best defensive third baseman in baseball and one of the best third basemen in the sport period. Coming off a career year and the plate, as well as his first career Gold Glove Award, Hayes should be an anchor for the Pirates this season.

A returning Oneil Cruz could provide a massive boost for the Pirates this season. If Cruz can reach the potential he had before suffering a season-ending broken ankle on Easter Sunday last season, he can be one of the best power hitters in baseball and a very special player at the shortstop position.

Second base will be a positional battle to watch in spring training. Entering camp, Liover Peguero should be viewed as the favorite to win the job. The competition will be between Peguero, Nick Gonzales, Jared Triolo, and Ji Hwan Bae. Peguero is, at worst, the second best defensive second baseman of that group, has the highest offensive ceiling, and flashed some positive things during his time in the majors last season.

At least to start the season, first base will be a platoon between Rowdy Tellez and Connor Joe. Coming off a poor season in Milwaukee that saw him non-tendered by the Brewers, Tellez is looking to bounce back with the Pirates. Tellez will get the starts at first base against right-handed pitching, and will be looking to bounce back from a terrible 2023 season.

Joe, who quietly had a strong season with the Pirates in 2023 (107 wRC+/OPS+), will be Tellez's platoon partner. The right-handed hitter could also factor into the outfield equation. If Joe can repeat what he did in 2023, the Pirates will be ecstatic with what they get from him.

Outfield/Designated Hitter - Bryan Reynolds, Jack Suwinski, Edward Olivares, Billy McKinney, Andrew McCutchen

Left field is set in stone. Bryan Reynolds, the owner of the largest contract in franchise history, will hold down the position for the Pirates. Recently ranked as the fourth best left fielder in baseball by MLB Network, the Pirates need Reynolds to bounce back from what was a down season for his standards in 2023.

Entering the offseason the Pirates needed to add a center fielder. Well, that has not happened. As a result, Jack Suwinski will man the position daily. Suwinski would have been a big part of the outfield regardless, but he is best served platooning in right field. Suwinski struggles mightily against left-handed pitching, is a poor defensive center fielder, and strikes out too much. Getting him a platoon partner and sliding him to right field is what's best for him and would improve the team. But, alas, here we are.

With Suwinski needing to hold down center field, right field projections change. Offseason trade acquisitions Edward Olivares and Billy McKinney could very possibly platoon in right field to start the season.

During his time with the Kansas City Royals, Olivares has flashed offensvie potential but has struggled mightily defensively. Using him as a platoon player to start the season jives with what Derek Shelton has always liked to do with young hitters. Right now, we are projecting Olivares to be in right field against left-handed pitchers.

As for McKinney, he is coming off arguably the best season of his career. He made some changes with his stance and approach at the plate last season that appeared to pay off. Also, unlike Olivares, he is a strong defensive right fielder. So, even when Olivares starts he could be a late inning defensive replacement.

We will also include Andrew McCutchen with this group. It appears to be a safe bet that the Pirates will open the season with Cutch as their primary DH. That said, they wanted him to play more right field last season but injury issues derailed those plans.

Could McCutchen see more time in right field this season? It's certainly possible. If Olivares struggles then Cutch could start in right field instead against left-handed pitching. There is also a scenario where Rowdy Tellez has a bounce back season, Connor Joe repeats/improves upon his 2023, and Olivares scuffles, leading to Cutch in right field, Tellez at DH, and Joe at first base on a regular basis.

Utility Man - Jared Triolo

The final position player spot goes to Jared Triolo. The right-handed hitting Triolo made his MLB debut last season and impressed. In his first taste of MLB action, he hit for a .298/.388/.398 slash line with a 116 OPS+, 118 wRC+, and a 2.2 WAR.

Offensively, Triolo benefitted from an unsustainably high .440 batting average on balls in play. While Triolo's BABIP indicates he is due for offensive regression in 2024, he will still be a high contact hitter with strong on-base skills.

Maybe the biggest factor working in Triolo's favor when it comes to making the Opening Day roster is his defensive flexibility. If not for Hayes, he would be the team's starting third baseman and a legitimate Gold Glove candidate at the position. Triolo is a plus defender at second base, and can also play both shortstop and first base at a high level. It's hard to envision Triolo being left off the Opening Day roster.

Bullpen - David Bednar, Aroldis Chapman, Colin Holderman, Dauri Moreta, Carmen Mlodzinski, Ryan Borucki, Jose Hernandez, Bailey Falter

The bullpen should be the strength of the Pirates this season.

Closer, 9th inning guy, high-leverage arm, whatever you want to call him David Bednar is one of the best in baseball. So is long-time rival and foe Aroldis Chapman who the Pirates have signed to pair with Bednar.

2023 saw righties Colin Holderman, Dauri Moreta, and Carmen Mlodzinski all started to break onto the scene as above-average MLB relievers. If each of those three even repeat what they did last season, especially if one or two can take another step forward, the Pirate bullpen quickly starts to become one of the best in the National League.

Speaking of 2023 breakouts, there may not have been a more unpredictable breakout for the Pirates last season than left-handed reliever Ryan Borucki. Even if Borucki slightly regresses from last season, he'd still be a very good MLB reliever.

The starting rotation may struggle to give the bullpen a lot of leads, but any lead the bullpen is handed should be in good hands. It's not hard to envision the Pirates putting themselves in a position to play a lot of 6 or 7 inning games with this bullpen core.

Rounding out the bullpen in this projection are lefties Jose Hernandez and Bailey Falter. Hernandez joined the Pirates as a Rule 5 Draft selection last season and flasehd a lot more good than bad. He clearly hit a rookie wall that hurt his overall numbers, but Hernandez should be a strong middle/long relief pitcher for the Pirates this season.

As for Falter, he was acquired from the Phillies last July. He is a pitcher that Ben Cherington had pursued for some time and he is out of minor league options. Being out of options, look for Falter to crack the Opening Day roster. As of now, we project it to be as the team's long reliever, which is a role he pitched extremely well in last season.

Starting Rotation - Mitch Keller, Marco Gonzales, Martín Pérez, Roansy Contreras, Quinn Priester

For as big of a strength as the bullpen could be, the Pirate starting rotation is by far the team's biggest weakness entering 2024.

While Mitch Keller is more of a no. 2 type starter pitcher in a deeper starting rotation, there is no denying that he is the top guy for the Pirates. After pitching a career-high 194.1 innings in an also career-high 32 starts, Keller posted the best WAR of his career at 2.9 while making his first career All-Star appearance last season. In 2024, the Pirates need Keller to take another step forward.

Offseason acquisitions Marco Gonzales and Martín Pérez are set to slide in behind Keller. Gonzales is coming off back-to-back poor seasons, including a 2023 season in which he was limited to just 10 starts due to a forearm issue that required surgery and brings plenty of red flags.

As for Pérez, his struggles last season led to him losing his spot in the Ranger starting rotation. An American League All-Star in 2022, Pérez has had just two good seasons in 12 seasons in the majors. The odds of him pitching well for the Pirates this season are not high.

There is no denying that Roansy Contreras went off a cliff last season. In 5 April starts Contreras owned a 3.58 ERA, 2.93 FIP, 10.3% walk rate, 20.7% strikeout rate, and he did not allow a home run. From the start of May through July 5th, Contreras posted an 8.63 ERA, 6.72 FIP, 10.8% walk rate, 16.7% strikeout rate, and he allowed 11 home runs (2.43 HR/9).

Even with these struggles, Contreras is too talented for the Pirates to give up on. He is also out of minor league options, which all but assures him a spot on the Opening Day roster. Look for the Pirates to give Contreras one last shot in the starting rotation when the 2024 season begins.

Quinn Priester struggled in his first trip to the majors. The former first-round pick posted a 7.74 ERA, 6.74 FIP, and a -0.9 WAR in 50.0 innings pitched across 10 appearances, 8 of which were starts. Despite these struggles, the Pirates need a fifth starting pitcher. They also likely want to see what Priester can do with another extended look in the majors.

However, once JT Brubaker/Mike Burrows get healthy and the Pirates reach a point where they feel comfortable with Paul Skenes in the majors, then Priester's leash could become very short very quickly.

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