Pittsburgh Pirates: 3 Key Factors for Rowdy Tellez's Success

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Success for Rowdy Tellez with the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2024 will largely be determined by his health, fundamentals, and mentality.

When reports of the Pittsburgh Pirates signing first baseman Rowdy Tellez to a one-year deal hit the internet on Tuesday evening, many fans bemoaned Tellez’s lackluster 2023 line (.215/.291/.376) and dished out justifiable comparisons to former free-agent signings Ji Man Choi and Daniel Vogelbach. I must admit that the Pirates seem to have a type when it comes to free agent first basemen. Might Pittsburgh fans, though, dream of the Tellez of 2022, who clobbered 35 homers? Might there be a silver lining to this latest offseason move? Three factors may very well determine Tellez’s value to the club in 2024.

1. Fundamentals at the Plate

The best version of Tellez is a solid pure hitter. In his breakout 2022 season, he ranked in the 75th percentile or better in expected weighted on-base percentage, expected slugging percentage, average exit velocity, barrel percentage, hard-hit percentage, and walk rate. In other words, Tellez has a strong approach with solid bat-to-ball skills that bely his imposing stature.

These skills have been on display since Tellez’s time in Toronto’s minor league system where he caught the eye of former All-Star (and Blue Jay Dad) Dante Bichette. According to Kaitlyn McGrath of The Athletic, the pair worked together prior to the 2020 season, adjusting Tellez’s two-strike approach and nearly cutting his strikeout rate in half.

2. Streakiness

Not only are Tellez’s seasons up and down affairs, he also falls into significant slumps. Even during Tellez’s standout 2022 campaign, he went homer-less for 20 games in late May/early June. In 2023, he stumbled through 30 straight games without a home run. The major difference between these two spells was his overall effectiveness at the plate.

In 2022, on the other hand, Tellez maintained consistent production despite the lack of pop; his batting average on balls in play over those 20 games was .317. During the stretch in 2023, just before Tellez hit the injured list with right forearm inflammation, yielded a BAbip of .215 and cost the Brewers 1.24 wins according to Baseball-Reference’s Win Probability Added metric.

Many of Tellez’s cold snaps can be directly related to injuries. Early in his career, he battled a nagging patella strain in his right knee, and on his way back from the forearm strain, he injured his left ring finger in a “freak accident,” which resulted in 17 stitches, a surgery, and a significant reduction in his abilities at the plate.

3. Mentality

Losing time to injuries and to fellow first basemen/top prospects Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Keston Hiura, Tellez had little opportunity for consistent playing time in Toronto and Milwaukee. Amid the uncertainty, Tellez has leaned on the wisdom of the ancients. He frequently cites Sun Tzu’s The Art of War as a formative text in his mental development. In 2021, he quipped to The Athletic’s Will Sammon,

You know, just like it says in the book, we may not be the best at everything. But if we’re polished and we’re able to know that every guy has each other’s back, we’re gonna be strong… Each guy has a role.
Rowdy Tellez

Tellez’s exact role will likely depend on further offseason moves. He tends to mash right-handed pitching, so he could certainly platoon with Connor Joe at first base. He might split some time at DH with his former teammate, Andrew McCutchen (if Pittsburgh re-signs him). Tellez’s productivity, regardless of his role on the club, also depends largely on matters outside of his control: consistent playing time and good health. If these two factors fall into place, the Pirates’ gamble on Tellez could pay substantial dividends.

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