Pittsburgh Pirates: A Look At The Athletics's Free Agent And Trade Targets
The Athletic recently published an article listing potential free agent and trade targets for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
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The Athletic recently published an article listing potential free agent and trade targets for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
The Athletic’s Jim Bowden recently published an article discussing potential free agent and trade targets for all 15 National League teams. Of course, this includes the Pittsburgh Pirates. The list includes 13 free agent targets and nine trade targets. The article requires a subscription, but fellow staff writer Kody Duncan posted the list, which I will show below.
Here is what the The Athletic is saying about the Pirates this offseason: pic.twitter.com/Ii4he3D6Ow
— Kody Duncan (@KodyDuncanPGH) November 24, 2023
Let’s break down the free agent targets first, and then move onto the potential trade targets.
Free Agents
Both Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo were two of my favorite acquisition targets at the start of the off-season, and are still among my top two players to pursue. Wacha pitched to a 3.22 ERA, 3.89 FIP, and 1.16 WHIP in 134.1 innings, posting a 127 ERA+ for the second season in a row. While his walk rate went from 6% to 7.8%, his K% rose from 20% to 22.4%, and his HR/9 dropped from 1.27 to 1.00.
Lugo got a chance with the Padres to pitch as a starting pitcher full time for the first time in his MLB career. He tossed 146.1 innings, working to a 3.57 ERA, 3.83 FIP, and 1.20 WHIP. He had both an above average 23.2% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate. His 1.17 HR/9 rate was also slightly better than league average.
Erick Fedde would certainly be an interesting player to go after. After struggling with the Washington Nationals for years, Fedde made his way to South Korea and pitched for the NC Dinos. He tossed 180.1 innings, while pitching to a phenomenal 2.00 ERA, 2.38 FIP, and 0.95 WHIP. Fedde struck out 29.5% of the batters he faced with a 4.9% walk rate. But the most impressive part of his game was his ability to limit home runs and keep the ball on the ground. Fedde had a microscopic 0.45 HR/9 rate, while having a 70% ground ball rate. For reference, the highest tracked ground ball rate by a starting pitcher was Framber Valdez in 2021 at 70.3%, but in 134.2 innings.
Lucas Giolito would be a prime rebound candidate. The former Chicago White Sox ace had a 3.79 ERA, 4.43 FIP, and 1.22 WHIP prior to getting traded. However, after getting traded, Gioltio struggled mightily to the tune of a 6.96 ERA, 6.87 FIP, and 1.48 WHIP. While his K% only dropped from 25.8% to 25.4%, his walk rate jumped from 8.3% to 10.8%, and his HR/9 went through the roof from 1.49 to 2.98. He did have a 26.3% HR/FB ratio after the trade deadline, and from 2019 through 2021, was one of baseball’s better starting pitchers with a 3.47 ERA, 3.54 FIP, and 1.08 WHIP, while ranking top 16 in games started and innings pitched.
Mike Clevinger pitched to a 3.77 ERA, 4.28 FIP, and 1.23 WHIP. While he had a respectable 1.1 HR/9 and 7.3% walk rate, he also had a strikeout rate of just 20%. Clevinger also has only pitched 150+ innings once in his career. Plus with some off the field issues, he wouldn’t be a prime free agent to go after.
The Athletic’s list includes some decent sluggers, the first of which is Teoscar Hernandez. Hernandez batted .258/.305/.435 with a 105 wRC+ with the Seattle Mariners last season. This was a down season for Hernandez, especially considering he had a wRC+ of 130 or better in 2020-2022. Hernandez still went yard 26 times, marking the fifth straight 162 game season he hit at least 20. Hernandez’s 31.1% K-rate and 5.6% walk rate were both two of the worst rates of his career. However, his defense in right field was pretty solid, with +1 defensive run saved, +6.7 UZR/150, and zero outs above average.
Jorge Soler would bring in one of the biggest power threats in the league. Last season, Soler hit .254/.341/.512, going yard 36 times. Soler also posted a strong 11.4% walk rate, and the best K% of his career at 24.3%. Overall, he finished the season with a 126 wRC+. Soler, however, is pretty much a designated hitter-only. He saw 241.1 innings in right field, and had -5 DRS and -3 OAA in that short time.
Then there’s Rhys Hoskins, who we’ve covered plenty of times here. Hoskins, who is coming off an ACL tear that kept him out all of 2023, has been a very consistent hitter throughout his MLB career. Dating back to 2017, Hoskins has hit .242/.353/.492 with a .360 wOBA, and 126 wRC+. He has a career .250 ISO and averages 34 home runs per-650 plate appearances. Hoskins defense isn’t to die for, with -7 career DRS and -11 OAA.
Outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. rounds out the position player free agent targets. Gurriel Jr. hit .261/.309/.463 with a career high 24 home runs. Overall, he had an above average .329 wOBA, and 106 wRC+. Gurriel Jr. has always been a solid hitter throughout his career, but his glovework in left field was strong with +13 DRS and +2 OAA.
If there were any pitching free agent targets I’d like to see the Pirates keep away from, it’s Brad Keller and Dakota Hudson. After a strong start to his MLB career in 2018-2020, Keller has now pitched to a 5.14 ERA, 4.79 FIP, and 1.63 WHIP over his last three seasons. Last year, he tossed 45.1 innings while walking (45) significantly more batters than he struck out (31). Dakota Hudson has a 4.64 ERA, 4.60 FIP, and 1.47 WHIP over 2022-2023. He has a 13% strikeout rate in these two seasons with a poor 10% walk rate. He has the 6th lowest K:BB ratio of any pitcher with 300+ MLB innings since 2010.
The two position player free agent I would advise to steer clear of is Nick Senzel and Brain Anderson. Senzel only batted .236/.297/.399 with an 83 wRC+. His 7.9% walk rate, 22.4% strikeout rate, and .163 ISO all may have been roughly league average, but he has never even once posted a wRC+ of 90 in his career. He’s also only ever once been an above replacement level player. Anderson, like Keller, had a solid start to his MLB career with a 115 wRC+from 2018 through 2020, but has only batted .231/.317/.362 with a .301 wOBA, and 88 wRC+ since then. The only value he has brought to the table is solid defense in the outfield and at third base.
Trade Targets
Alex Verdugo would have both a reasonable price tag, and fill a potential need for the Bucs. Verdugo posted about league average numbers with a .264/.324/.421 triple-slash, .322 wOBA, and 98 wRC+. Verdugo has consistently potsed strong strikeout rates, and only K’d in 15.4% of his plate appearances. His 7.5% walk rate comes in right at his career average. He also tied a career high 13 home runs. He also had a strong season with the glove with +10 DRS and +1 OAA in right field.
Harold Ramirez may seem like a familiar name because he was once a Pirates prospect. After a few mediocre seasons with the Marlins and Cleveland, Ramirez broke out in Tampa Bay. After a quality 2022 season, Ramirez followed that up with an even better 2023, batting .313/.353/.460 with a .349 wOBA, and 128 wRC+. Ramirez had just an 18.2% strikeout rate, but a poor 5.1% walk rate. But his .148 ISO and 12 home runs were career bests. Ramirez was the primary designated hitter for the Rays last year, but has experience in both corner outfield spots, as well as first base.
MJ Melendez’s MLB career has been relatively unimpressive thus far, as he’s hit just .227/.314/.396 with a 92 wRC+ since his 2022 debut. He owns a quality 11.5% walk rate, but has struck out over a quarter of the time with a 26.5% strikeout rate. But Melendez has displayed elite raw power and was in the 96th percentile of exit velocity. Melendez was moved to the outfield full time in 2023 after racking up -18 DRS and -15.7 framing runs in 2022, but his defense in the grass hasn’t been any better. Last year, he had -14 DRS and -11 OAA. In Melendez’s defense, he was once considered a consensus top 50 prospect not all that long ago, and is playing in the spacious Kauffman Stadium.
The next trade target, Max Kepler is one of my favorite. The Minnesota Twins’ stalwart right fielder hit .260/.332/.484 with a 124 wRC+ last season. Although his 21.4% strikeout rate was the worst of his career, it was still above average, as was his 9.2% walk rate. Kep also had an outstanding second half with a 154 wRC+ and OPS over .900. He has always been an outstanding defensive right field as well, and had +2 DRS and +4 OAA last year.
Jesus Sanchez turned in a breakout year for the Marlins, batting .253/.327/.450 with a 109 wRC+. Sanchez went yard 14 times in only 402 plate appearances, and had a .197 isolated slugging percentage. While he struck out 26.6%, he also had a walk rate of 9.5%. On top of that, he was a quality defender with +5 defensive runs saved and +1 OAA.
Of the trade targets, I think there are some that would be so far out of any team’s price range that it would be unreasonable to trade for them. That would be Josh Lowe of the Tampa Bay Rays, Ezequiel Duran from the Texas Rangers, Anthony Santander coming out of the Baltimore Orioles, and finally Jarred Kelenic from Seattle. Don’t get me wrong, I would love all four, but both Duran and Lowe are two years away from even being arbitration eligible. Santander may be more reasonable, as he only has one year of control remaining, but with the Orioles’ current state, I’d lean toward them either putting an insane price tag on him, or him being more of an extension candidate. Kelenic has been inconsistent throughout his MLB career, and is still another year away from arbitration.
Next. Woodruff Target. Targeting Brandon Woodruff Would Be a Worthwhile Gamble. dark