Pittsburgh Pirates: A Look At The Options For First Base

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The Pittsburgh Pirates need to fill one of the positions on the right side of the infield. But what are their potential options at first base?

First base has been an issue the Pittsburgh Pirates have suffered with for years. There have been about two dozen players who could claim they were the Pirate starting first baseman since the outset of the 2010s. Since the start of the 2020s, it’s been no different. Josh Bell, Colin Moran, Yoshi Tsutsugo, Michael Chavis, Carlos Santana, Ji-Man Choi, Connor Joe, and Alfonso Rivas were all at least semi-regulars at one point or another.

This is the problem the Pirates need to solve now, and this off-season may be their best chance to secure a first baseman, not just in 2024, but over the next few seasons. We already looked at what the Pirates have both internally and their potential options on the free agent and trade market for second base, but what does first base hold?

Internally

We already discussed Jared Triolo in detail when looking at the options for second base, so we will just give a brief summary here. Triolo has been an underrated prospect in the Pirate system for years. He’s a great defender and has consistently been an above-average hitter in the minors. While his first promotion was rough, he did well in his second call-up, albeit with the help of a batting average on balls in play above .500. Triolo saw time at both corner infield positions, as well as second base, all three of which he looked great in during his brief time in the MLB.

The next best option is Connor Joe. The outfielder/first baseman is coming off a relatively solid season with the bat, hitting .247/.338/.421. Joe managed a .174 ISO, as well as a 10.6% walk rate. His strikeout rate was slightly worse than average, but a still manageable 23.3% rate. Joe ended the year with a .332 wOBA, and 107 wRC+.

Joe’s defense over at first base wasn’t horrible either. He was about average with -2 defensive runs saved and +1 out above average. He spent more time in the outfield grass, where again, he was about average with -3 DRS but +1 OAA. He may not win a Gold Glove, but he can hold his own at the position.

If the Pirates were to stick Joe at first base full-time, they’d need to find him a platoon partner. Joe hit very well against left-handed pitching, slashing .265/.365/.452 with a 122 wRC+. He had just a 20.4% strikeout rate, as well as an 11.4% walk rate. However, when facing a right-hander he hit just .235/.319/.401 with a 95 wRC+. While he still walked at an above-average 9.5% rate, he struck out about a quarter of the time (25.1%).

In the minor leagues, the Pirates have Malcom Nunez and Matt Gorski, but neither are what you’d consider the next great Pirates’ first baseman. The system certainly isn’t deep in first base talent, granted not too many systems are. As of right now, there is only one first baseman on FanGraphs’ top 100 list.

Trade Market

Of course, the big fish on the trade market, if they make him available (which is a big if), is Pete Alonso. Alonso posted a .217/.318/.504 with a .346 wOBA, and 121 wRC+. Alonso slapped 46 home runs, marking the fourth straight season Alonso has hit 40+ home runs (excluding 2020). His 9.9% walk rate and 22.9% strikeout rate were also better than league average. While Alonso’s average was low, he also suffered from a .205 batting average on balls in play. In 2021-2022, he hit .267 with a .277 BAbip. Alonso’s glove at first base was about average with +6 DRS but zero OAA.

But Alonso is bold to the point it could be unrealistic. Not only would Alonso take a lot to acquire, but he’s only signed through 2024. Plus it doesn’t look like the Mets are too enthusiastic about trading Alonso. At the very most, it would take the moon to acquire the all-star first baseman.

Another extremely bold potential trade target would be Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Guerrero Jr. batted .264/.345/.444 with a .340 wOBA and 118 wRC+. While this production is far from bad, it is a down season for the first baseman. He struck out in less than 15% of his plate appearances with a 14.7% strikeout rate while also carrying a healthy 9.8% walk rate. Guerrero hit 26 homers with a .176 ISO, which is above average, but a far cry from the .246 ISO he had in 2021-2022. Guerrero had a horrendous year with the glove with -6 defensive runs saved and -13 outs above average.

However, Guerrero Jr. may also be too bold of a potential target as well. The Blue Jays probably aren’t in a rush to trade the former MVP candidate, as he’s still controllable through 2025. Given Vlad had a wRC+ of around 150 in 2021-2022 combined, the Jays probably will try to see if he can rebound before dealing him while his value is at the lowest it’s ever been.

The last player I want to mention is Brandon Drury. I already went into detail with him on the article discussing second base options, so I'll just give a brief run-down now. Drury hit well for the second season in a row. He is one of baseball's more underrated power hitters, going yard 25+ times in each of the last two years. However, he is on the last year of his deal, and if the Angels truly mean that they're not going to rebuild, I doubt they'll look to move him as of right now.

The rest of the trade market is a mixed bag. Paul Goldschmidt is a potential player who could be on the move, but it is an expensive one year remaining on his contract, and he’s coming off a down year. The Chicago White Sox will likely listen to any and all players, including Andrew Vaughn, but they may have a high price tag on him, or at least want to see if he can breakout before selling low on him.

Free Agents

One free agent first baseman who would be both cheap and worthwhile is Justin Turner. Last year, Turner batted .276/.345/.455 with a .346 wOBA, and 114 wRC+. He swatted 23 home runs while carrying a .179 isolated slugging percentage. Turner had an above average 17.6% strikeout rate, and a respectable 8.1% walk rate, even if it was slightly worse than league average.

Turner had primarily played third base for years, but logged 289.1 innings at first this past season. Despite rarely playing the position in the past, Turner graded out as a pretty good defensive first baseman with +3 DRS and zero OAA. However, keep in mind that he spent most of his season as the Red Sox’s designated hitter. He only saw time at first base semi-frequently.

Don’t confuse a cheap veteran with a washed up player. The reason Turner would be cheap is because that he recently turned down a $13.4 million option in order to receive a $6.7 million buyout. That means that anything over $6.7 million would surpass what his 2024 salary would be if he opted into his contract. It’s not out of the question that he would sign for as low as $8 million next season.

Many people want to see a reunion with Carlos Santana. The veteran first baseman left an impression on both Pirates fans and players. On top of that, he was a very solid player, and maybe the best combination of hitting and fielding since Kevin Young. Santana finished the year as a .240/.318/.429 batter with a .328 wOBA, and 101 wRC+, making him nearly exactly league average.

Santana provided solid power with a .189 ISO and 23 home runs. He also struck out at just a 16.8% rate, marking the 12th season in a row he has struck out less than 20% of the time. His 10.5% walk rate was also above league average, but it notably was the worst of his career.

The major concern with Santana is he turns 38 in early April. His raw power is on the decline, and at his age, and only had an 88.8 MPH exit velocity and 36.2% hard hit rate. How many more decent seasons Santana has left in the tank is unknown.

While many people want to see Santana back in Pittsburgh, many more want to see Rhys Hoskins go from the Eastern PA to Western PA. Hoskins is all but certainly out of the cards for the Philadelphia Phillies. After stating that Bryce Harper would move to first base full-time, and Kyle Scwharber almost having to play designated hitter because of his horrid defense, the Phils no longer seem interested in a Hoskins reunion.

Hoskins missed all of the 2023 season due to a torn ACL. However, when he last played, he hit pretty well, slashing .246/.332/.462 with a .345 wOBA, and 122 wRC+. Hoskins had a 10.7% walk rate but struck out in just a little over a quarter of his plate appearances with a 25.7% strikeout rate. As usual, Hoskins was a power threat, going yard 30 times with a .216 ISO. But for Hoskins, this was a down season. His career average ISO is .250, while his career home run rate in 672 plate appearances, the total he had in 2022, is about 35 dingers.

Defensive metrics were mixed on Hoskins’ glovework. Defensive runs saved thought he was a good defender at +3 runs, as did UZR/150 at +0.8. However, outs above average was not kind in their review of Hoskins. He had -6 OAA, the lowest of his career.

Most estimations have Hoskins making somewhere around $15-$16 million in 2024. That should be more than within the Pirates’ price range. Last season, they spent $11.4 million to acquire both Santana and Choi.

Another potential regular option comes in the form of Jeimer Candelario. Candelario has mostly been a third baseman throughout his career, but he could make the move to first base. After a rough 2022, Candelario rebounded to hit .251/.336/.471 with a .346 wOBA, and 116 wRC+. He only had a 22.2% strikeout rate and 9.2% walk rate, while hitting for the best power of his career. His 22 home runs and .220 isolated slugging percentage were career highs.

Candelario has graded out as about an average defensive first baseman throughout his career with +1 DRS and -2 OAA. He mostly suited up for the hot corner for the Washington Nationals and Chicago Cubs, where he had -5 DRS but +2 OAA.

The best platoon option is Brandon Belt. The veteran 1B hit .254/.369/.490, .369 wOBA, 138 wRC+. He only stepped to the plate 404 times, but hit 19 home runs. While his 34.9% strikeout rate was a career worst, his 15.1% walk rate is the best rate he’s posted since 2016. Most of Belt’s plate appearances were taken against RHP, 365 to be exact, and owned a 146 wRC+ against opposite handed pitching. Meanwhile, he only had a 64 wRC+ in the 39 other PAs he took against lefties.

Belt split his time at DH and 1B, but was still a solid defensive player. He had -1 DRS but +1 OAA in 242.2 innings. While he may no longer be a Gold Glove contender like he was at the beginning of his career, he can still hold his own at first base.

There are a few other players to consider, like C.J. Cron, and Donovan Solano, as well as some rebound candidates like Juan Yepez, Rowdy Tellez, and Garrett Cooper. However, the Pirates need to aim higher than that. They need a reliable option, not a rebound candidate.

Conclusion

This is assuming the Pirates think that filling in first base would be easier than filling in second base. If they do fill in second, then Triolo would go to first, and the Pirates wouldn’t need to find another first baseman. So let’s say the Pirates decide to go after a first baseman over a 2B. What should they do?

I like the options on the trade market. There probably isn’t a single Pirates fan who would take either Alonso or Vlad Jr. at a reasonable price. But I doubt that either team is going to put a reasonable price on them, especially Vlad since there’s less of a rush to see what he can get in a trade. Don’t get me wrong, I would also love to see Vlad or Alonso at first base on Opening Day next season at PNC. How fun would that be? But I just don’t think it’s very realistic.

So free agency it is. I’m not entirely opposed to a Joe/Belt platoon. Justin Turner and Carlos Santana are also solid options. However, all of this just pushes back the problem for another season without a real replacement in the minor leagues, unless they want Endy to get some work in at first with Davis catching some.

In my opinion, the Pirates really should go after Rhys Hoskins. Hoskins is what the Pirates need; a good first baseman for at least two seasons, and at a reasonable price. This is the guy they need. However, if Hoskins signs elsewhere, Jeimer Candelario is the next best option, given that he'd sign for at least two years and would be a solid option with some pop.

The very least I would settle for is a Belt in a platoon with Connor Joe. This is far from the most ideal option in my opinion, however. I would much rather have someome who will give me 500+ plate appearances at first base. But a Belt/Joe platoon would at least give the Pirates decent hitting production. Belt vs RHP combined with Joe vs LHP in 2023 comes to a .259/.373/.493 hitter with a .866 OPS.

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