Pittsburgh Pirates: Attempting to Construct a Realistic Off-Season

Let's attempt to put together what a realistic off-season could look like for the Pittsburgh Pirates based on the amount of money they spent last fall and winter

The Pittsburgh Pirates are coming up on a pivotal off-season. After a solid 2023 campaign, they’ll look to build off their momentum in the second half of the year and try to avoid such a horrible mid-June and mid-July. However, they’ll definitely need to bring in some reinforcements this upcoming off-season.

I’ve previously written about what a perfect Pirates off-season would look like in my vision. But I wasn’t really considering payroll or realism when writing that article. It was mostly looking at what I believe to be the best combination of players the Pirates could go after. Today, I want to give a more realistic take.

I am trying to accomplish that by putting one self-limitation, and that’s keeping a budget within $1 million of 40 million, so anything around $39 million to $41 million. The Pirates spent $37.205 million on trade and free-agent acquisitions. I decided on $40 million as that would be about a $3 million increase in off-season spending from the previous winter. I will also track an estimated amount through each entry.

Andrew McCutchen

Andrew McCutchen returned on a one-year, $5 million deal, taking a pay cut and giving the Pirates a hometown discount so he could play another year in Pittsburgh. But McCutchen isn’t done yet. Some injuries slowed him down in the second half of the season, but there’s nothing to suggest McCutchen’s tank is empty yet.

In McCutchen’s return to Pittsburgh, he hit .256/.378/.397 with a .345 wOBA and 115 wRC+. His 15.9% walk rate is now the best of his career, but he also had a respectable 21.1% strikeout rate. Cutch did not hit for much power as he hit 12 home runs and had a .141 isolated slugging percentage. But some of that could be chalked up to an elbow injury that hampered him.

Up through late June, Cutch had a much better-looking .168 isolated slugging percentage, which was slightly above the league average. But he managed a sub-.100 ISO from the start of July through the end of the season. Cutch was placed on the IL once at the start of July but again in early September after suffering a partial achilles tear in his left leg.

The only thing that I would be concerned about is that this was the second major left leg injury Cutch has suffered in the last five years. The former MVP tore his ACL in 2019 with the Phillies, which also occurred in his left leg. 2024 will be his age-37 campaign, and while you have to wonder how well his leg will hold up, Cutch seems ready to get back on the horse for at least one more year.

I estimate that McCutchen will sign the exact same contract he did last off-season. That is a one-year, $5 million deal. Both sides want another year together, and I don’t see Cutch asking for more than he made last season.

Total Spent: $5 million

Eduardo Rodriguez

Eduardo Rodriguez is going into the off-season with a player option, and I’ve previously mentioned him as a player to watch this off-season with his pending decision. But it looks as if Rodriguez will be heading back into free agency. Multiple rumors suggest that he’ll turn down a three-year/$49 million contract and look for another team. If and when Rodriguez does become an unrestricted free agent, the Pirates should heavily consider him for their rotation.

Rodriguez is coming off a solid rebound campaign that saw him work to a 3.30 ERA, 3.66 FIP, and 1.15 WHIP. Rodriguez’s 23% strikeout rate was above the league average but slightly below his career average. However, his 7.7% walk rate was better than both the league and his career average. Rodriguez had an 0.88 HR/9 rate, which was the best rate of his career. Granted, he did play a full season in the extremely home-run unfriendly Comerica Park.

Rodriguez was good at limiting hard contact. He was in the 58th percentile of exit velocity (88.6 MPH), barrel rate (7.5%), and the 54th percentile of hard hit rate (38.5%). What is noteworthy about his Baseball Savant page is that this was the first season his fastball, breaking ball, and off-speed pitch all were in the 60th+ percentile of pitch value.

In my opinion, Rodriguez is not looking for a significant more amount of money but more years. If he opts into his current contract, he’ll be making $49 million across three seasons, which is an AAV of $16.33 million. But he will become a free agent at 33 years old, a sort of gray area for baseball players. I think he’ll look to secure a deal that will carry him through at least his age-35 season, which would be a five-year deal, at the very least. I don’t think he’ll get a significant raise either, but $18 million a year for a quality #2 starting pitcher seems about right.

Total Spent: $23 million

Wade Miley

Wade Miley seems destined to be a Pirates pitcher in 2024. The lefty veteran is coming off yet another quality season. An older left-handed starting pitcher fits Ben Cherington’s MO to a T. On a one-year deal, he could potentially be a quality arm for the Pirates to rely on in 2024. I think he is exactly the kind of pitcher Cherington would pursue.

Miley is coming off his age-36 campaign, where he pitched to a 3.14 ERA, 4.69 FIP, and 1.14 WHIP. Of the nine seasons where Miley has started at least 20 games, this is his lowest single-season ERA and WHIP. Miley had an above-average 7.8% walk rate and 1.20 HR/9, but his 16.1% strikeout rate was the lowest of his career (unless you count the 40 innings he pitched in 2011).

Miley greatly over-performed his underlying numbers. He had a 5.04 SIERA and 4.85 xFIP, but it’s not as if he has never outperformed his numbers. From 2018-2022, Miley had a 3.50 ERA but a 4.67 FIP and 4.33 xFIP.

One thing that has remained strong is his ability to prevent hard contact. Miley had an 87.3 MPH exit velocity, which ranked in the 83rd percentile, as well as a hard hit rate of 31.3%, which was in the 93rd percentile. That’s not too far off from the 86.5 MPH exit velocity and 31.7% hard-hit rate he had in 2018-2022.

I’d say that Miley will sign something similar to what the Pirates signed Rich Hill to last off-season: a one-year/$8 million deal. Miley is slightly younger and coming off a better season but also receiving a $1 million buyout. If I had to estimate, he’d sign a one-year, $9 million deal, which, combined with the buyout, would match his mutual option for 2024 for $10 million.

Total Spent: $32 million

Brandon Drury

The one trade acquisition I have here is infielder Brandon Drury from the Los Angeles Angels. The Angels may undergo a full-on rebuild this off-season. At the very least, they’ll probably trade off some of their short-term veterans. One of said short-term veterans is Brandon Drury.

Drury is coming off a season where he batted .262/.306/.497 with a .339 wOBA and 114 wRC+. Drury smacked 26 home runs and had a strong .235 isolated slugging percentage. Among the batters in the regular season with at least 500 plate appearances, Drury had the 19th-highest ISO. The downside to Drury’s season was his 4.8% walk rate and 26% strikeout rate, both of which were below average.

Drury can fill either second or first base for the Pirates, two positions they’ll likely explore the market for. Of the two positions, the keystone is his better defensive home. He had -1 defensive run saved, but +5 outs above average. But he also was decent at first base with -1 DRS and zero OAA.

Assuming the Pirates would take on all the money and don’t send any prospects who are already on the Major League payroll back, they would be taking on a one-year, $8.5 million deal. For ones saying that the Pirates would never take on any money, they spent over $11 million to have Ji Man Choi and Carlos Santana platoon at first base last season. If anything, the Pirates are saving money compared to last off-season to solve a hole in the infield.

Total Spent: $40.5 million