Pittsburgh Pirates: Attempting to Predict the Rest of the Offseason

Spring Training is just around the corner, but what do I see the Pittsburgh Pirates doing as we head into the home stretch of the off-season?

We are just a few weeks away from the Pittsburgh Pirates' first Spring Training game. Regardless of how you feel about the Pirates' off-season so far, it's going to be great to have Pirates baseball back. But as they say, "It ain't over 'til it's over," and the off-season is still far from over. There are a lot of moves that haven't been made, decent free agents still out there, and a few more weeks before games start. Overall, it's been a pretty slow off-season, not just for the Pirates but also for most teams in MLB.

I still believe the Pirates have a few more moves up their sleeve. Ben Cherington and the front office are pretty tight-lipped about rumors. There wasn't a peep about the Pirates even considering going after any relief pitchers to deepen the bullpen, and the signing of Aroldis Chapman was a massive surprise. I believe they are cooking something up that the public doesn't know about yet. 

So, what do I think is going to happen from here until the first Spring Training game? Well, I have a few predictions I want to discuss.

Gary Sanchez becomes a Pirate

The Pirates have been connected to Gary Sanchez, and with the team needing another bat, I think they will get a deal done. The veteran slugger also brings solid defense behind the plate, a position the Pirates could definitely benefit from adding depth to. 

Last season, Sanchez batted .217/.228/.496 with a .329 wOBA and 111 wRC+ through 267 plate appearances, mostly with the San Diego Padres. Sanchez hit for an immense amount of power. His .275 isolated slugging percentage not only led all catchers with as many plate appearances, but it was the best remark of his career since 2019. The downside is that he had an unimpressive 7.9% walk rate and 25.1% strikeout rate, although both are manageable.

Many fans are sleeping on Sanchez's defense. Although he was a bad defender at the start of his career, he's gotten increasingly better with the glove. Last year, he racked up a career-high +7 defensive runs saved. Depending on the metric you use, Sanchez either was league average or slightly better than league average at framing, as FanGraphs put him at -0.1 while Baseball Savant had him at +2. Either way, you look at it, Sanchez can frame a pitch. Blocking, however, is still a slight issue, but not nearly as bad as it was early in his career. Last season, he had just -1 blocking runs and five passed balls. In his rookie season, he allowed six passed balls in about 210 fewer innings caught.

There's also a decent amount of evidence that we could see Sanchez bounce back even further in 2024. Sanchez had a .342 xwOBA, 13 points higher than his wOBA. Despite having a 15.4% barrel rate, the 15th best in baseball and above the likes of Ronald Acuna Jr., Corey Seager, and Bryce Harper, Sanchez's batting average on balls in play was just .212, significantly lower than the .254 mark he had in 2016-2022. Sanchez may have become more flyball-happy, but his launch angle only went from 15.4 degrees to 16.5 degrees. He had an expected batting average of .230. An increase from .217 to .230 might not seem like much on paper, but that's the difference between 76 and 81 hits in 350 at-bats. Sanchez's xwOBACON was .419, 16 points better than his bottom line.

Sanchez has the potential to be a 25-home-run threat from the catching position, something that has only been done 18 times over the last decade by a primary catcher. On top of that, he's a solid defender behind the plate who has gotten better with age, which is something you typically don't see from the most physically demanding position on the diamond. 

Pirates sign Michael A. Taylor to cover center field

This one is the boldest, as there are much fewer rumors or updated news regarding the Pirates' interest in Michael A. Taylor. But the team had been connected to him earlier this off-season. The Pirates would benefit from signing another outfielder, especially one who can play center field, and Taylor plays a great center field.

Last season, Taylor had +5 defensive runs saved, +8 outs above average, and +0.9 defensive WAR in 960 innings up the middle. Believe it or not, but this was a down year by Taylor's typical standards. In 2021-2022, he had +38 DRS, with +19 each season. He also had +23 OAA with +18 coming in 2021, which is the 6th most any center fielder has had in a single season. He also had nearly +5.0 defensive WAR.

Taylor's defense comes from a lot of facets. The first is that he has great range. On average, Taylor was in the 87th percentile of sprint speed at 28.7 feet/second. The other is his arm strength. His throws averaged 91.5 MPH from the outfield, the 11th most by any center fielder. He was one of just 48 outfielders whose throws averaged 90+ MPH.

Taylor's defense is his calling card by far, but his bat is playable. In 388 plate appearances, Taylor slashed .220/.278/.442 with a .308 wOBA and 96 wRC+. Taylor had 21 home runs last year, and his .223 isolated slugging percentage was the best among any primary CF with at least 350 plate appearances. Taylor's 6.7% walk rate was below average but not atypical for him. However, his 33.5% K-rate was a career-worst unless you count 2014 or 2019, both seasons in which he had less than 100 PAs.

Taylor could also help offset some of the platoon issues that Jack Suwinski faces. Taylor had a .914 OPS, .380 wOBA, and 146 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. It was only a sample size of 112 plate appearances, but he is typically a solid batter vs Southpaws. Taylor did have an above-average .171 ISO against right-handers but ended up only having a 75 wRC+ when facing same-handed pitching.

Taylor also posted a career-best 13.5% barrel rate, which is also the first time he's ever peaked over 10%. That also was the 4th best among any centerfielder in 2023. The only ones with a higher barrel rate? Mike Trout, Jack Suwinski, and Luis Robert Jr. That's a massive improvement from 2021-2022 when he sat below 7% in both seasons. Taylor saw his launch angle rise by 1.3 degrees between 2022 and 2023, helping him hit more flyballs. He also went to his pull side 42.8% of the time, compared to 38% in '21 and '22.

The only concern would be how Taylor's pull-side power would play in PNC Park. Target Field is about average in terms of home run park factor, while PNC is much less home run friendly. Although PNC is shorter down the line than Target Field, the left field wall is slightly deeper by about six feet. Though the deepest part of PNC (left center) is still shallower than the deepest part of Target (center field), and PNC's center field is much more in, by about a dozen feet.

But I'd still take 18 home runs and a 90 wRC+ from Taylor with his defense in center field. Taylor's defense alone makes him a valuable center fielder, at least in a platoon capacity. Given he can hit a little would make him a regular for most teams.