Pittsburgh Pirates: Best Prospect at Each Position

Catcher - Axiel Plaz

This one could be up for debate, but the top prospect at this position for the Pirates isn’t what it was a year ago. That’s only because both Henry Davis and Endy Rodriguez are no longer considered prospects. You could argue Abrahan Gutierrez here, but I’m gonna go with a slightly bolder take with Axiel Plaz.

Plaz was signed in the 2021-2022 off-season, and far from our last name from that signing period. Plaz opened his pro career out with the Pirates’ Dominican Summer League affiliate where he posted an insane .382/.500/.706 triple-slash, a 205 wRC+, and .550 wOBA. He slugged three homers and drew walks at an impressive 15.1% rate while having an 18.6% K-rate. However, do keep in mind that this was in a microscopic amount of plate appearances (86), and was still at the DSL.

Plaz, despite only being in his age-17 campaign, still started out the 2023 season at the Pirates’ Florida Complex League affiliate. But after turning in such a promising sample size in 2022, he wasn’t able to build off of that. He batted just .144/.355/.237 with an 81 wRC+. Plaz upped his walk rate to 16%, but his K% skyrocketed to 31.3%. After going yard three times in less than 100 trips to the plate, Plaz hit just a single home run in 131 PAs. 

Still, Plaz was very young, even for the FCL. He was the 5th youngest player to take at least 100 plate appearances. In total, there were only 17 kids in the FCL younger than 18 to take 100+ PAs. Most of which struggled, with all but two having a wRC+ well below 90. In terms of this stat, Plaz was actually the third best 17-year-old in the FCL.

Plaz was considered a good defensive catcher when the Pirates signed him. However, there is potential for a power hitter here as well. Plaz is 5’11”, 165-LBS. That gives him some projectability. But he will need to show less swing and miss in the future. While he K’d at an extremely high rate this year, it was in a small sample size in a league where he was one of the youngest players.

Plaz has a very high ceiling. A potential power hitting catcher with plus defense behind the plate is his ceiling. Of course, given that he just turned 18 years old back in August, he is far from a finished product. However, if he develops well, you could very well see him make prospect headlines in the next few years.

Honorable mentions: Abrahan Gutierrez, Samuel Escudero

First Base - Tony Blanco Jr.

Tony Blanco Jr. was one of the Pirates’ biggest international signings from the 2021-2022 off-season. Blanco Jr. was originally signed as an outfielder, but given his massive body size, the Pirates have already gotten him work in at first base which looks like could be his primary positon moving forward.

Blanco Jr.’s first extended look against professional pitching had it’s ups and downs. Blanco posted some massive exit velocity numbers, and walked at a 10.8% rate. But overall, he only batted .235/.25/.397 with a .349 wOBA, and 92 wRC+ throughout his 157 plate appearances at the Dominican Summer League. Blanco Jr. struck out at a 37.6% rate, which is a bit worrying.

Granted, Blanco is still young. This was only his age-18 season, and he won’t turn 19 until mid-May 2024. There is plenty of time for Blanco Jr. to iron out the flaws in his game, but if he can do that, the offensive potential for Blanco Jr. is off the charts.

Blanco is listed at 6’6”, 245-LBS. He is a teenager, and he is larger than most grown adult professional athletes. Blanco has shown off the raw power that suggests there’s a potential 40 homer batter. But given his Incredible Hulk-like frame and his long swing, there’s going to be some concern as to how his hit tool develops.

Still, if Blanco reaches his potential, the 1B/OF could become one of baseball’s biggest offensive threats. He’s still so young though, so we won’t see him for at least another two years. We will see how he develops, but he will surely be a name to watch over the coming years.

Honorable mentions: Malcom Nunez

Second Base - Termarr Johnson

Termarr Johnson was a big draft pick in 2022. Johnson signed for a massive $7.219 million bonus. While it only lasted for one year, and was surpassed by Wyatt Langford this past draft, Johnson still has the second highest signing bonus ever given to a 4th overall pick, and by a fair margin of just $210K. Johnson’s first season was promising, but it did have some ups and downs.

Johnson’s first half of the season was good, but concerning. He hit .231/.398/.402 with a .388 wOBA, and 126 wRC+. The second baseman showed off plus power and had a .171 isolated slugging percentage. Known for his patience at the plate, Johnson walked at a 20.6% rate. But the worrying factor was his 30.7% K-rate.

Johnson put the first half behind him, however, and had a fantastic second half, one of the best among Pirates’ prospects this season. Johnson batted .260/.451/.487 with a .437 wOBA, and 161 wRC+. Johnson upped his already elite walk rate to 23.4%, and improved his power output to a .227 isolated slugging percentage. But the massive and most promising development was his 20% strikeout rate,  a whopping 10.7% drop from the first half.

The second baseman may have been the best pure hitter the draft had seen in quite a while when the Bucs took him #4. Johnson easily has the potential to be a .300/.400/.500 batter in the future. Johnson is an above average runner with plus power potential. There could be a couple 30 home run seasons from him, but he should regularly sit with 20-25 dingers, with a few 20/20 seasons sprinkled in between.

Johnson was drafted as a shortstop, and while the Pirates have given him some time at the position as a professional, second base looks like his long term home. He’s more than an adequate defensive second baseman, and probably could be a shortstop if the Pirates really wanted him to be one, though the arm and range plays better at the keystone rather than short. 

Johnson is still only 19 years old, and like many of the prospects we will talk about today, that’s pretty young for that level. Johnson made it to High-A ball where he had 132 plate appearances. He was the 13th youngest player at that level and the 6th youngest player in the South Atlantic League to take at least 130 trips to the plate. Johnson could start the year at Altoona, given how well he did at Greensboro, though at just 19 and won’t turn 20 until June 11th, there’s no rush for Johnson.

Honorable mentions: Mitch Jebb

Third Base - Jack Brannigan

By this point next season, Jack Brannigan might still be on this list, but at shortstop instead of third base. Brannigan was the Pirates’ third round pick in 2022, and his 2023 breakout campaign was huge. He was one of the Pirates’ best hitting minor leaguers who had a massive second half. He has some sneaky athleticism, which could help him make the transition to the more demanding position of shortstop.

In his first full professional campaign, Brannigan slashed .275/.390/.524 with a .415 wOBA, and 146 wRC+. Although Brannigan struck out in nearly 30% of his plate appearances (29.9%), he offset that with a strong 14.2% walk rate. Brannigan, who is known his power, went yard 19 times in 374 plate appearances and had a .249 isolated slugging percentage. 

Brannigan missed nearly a month in mid-April and May. However, once he was back in action, he was nearly unstoppable at the plate. From May 27th onward, Brannigan was the owner of a .967 OPS, .432 wOBA, and 156 wRC+. All but one of Brannigan’s extra base hits came from this point onward. He had just one triple to his credit up until his hot streak that lasted throughout the end of the year.

Brannigan also brings some speed to the table. He went 24-27 in stolen base attempts. Brannigan had no trouble making the deep throws from third base. The Pirates took him as a two-way player out of Notre Dame, and he was firing upper-90s four-seam fastballs as a reliever. Brannigan is also athletic and projects as a plus defensive third baseman.

But the Pirates seem to be very confident in Brannigan’s defensive abilities. The also gave him time at both middle infield positions. Brannigan was promoted to High-A Greensboro, and the Pirates felt so confident in his defensive ability that he played 58 more innings at shortstop (159.2) than at third base (101.2). He also logged 67 more innings at the keystone while playing for the Grasshoppers.

Brannigan could get the nod to start the year at Altoona, or at least he should. 2024 will be his age-23 campaign, and Brannigan had a wRC+ approaching 160 at Greensboro. We shall see if the Pirates continue to let him take more reps at shortstop than third base. If he can make the transition without a much of a fault, he could become a sneaky prospect to watch.

Shortstop - Yordany De Los Santos

The Pirates signed Yordany De Los Santos alongside Blanco Jr. in the same off-season international period. De Los Santos also has a fairly high offensive ceiling and is a potential breakout prospect to watch for 2024. De Los Santos is primarily a shortstop, but has played a handful of games at third base as well. He also has the potential to hit for plus power.

De Los Santos opened the 2023 season at the Pirates’ Florida Complex League affiliate where he hit .328/.397/.463 with a .410 wOBA, and 126 wRC+. De Los Santos may have only hit one home run through 78 plate appearances, but he also swiped 13 bags, had a 9% walk rate, and a K% well below 20% at 14.1%. Because of how well De Los Santos performed at the FCL, the Pirates quickly promoted him to Bradenton.

However, De Los Santos wasn’t able to carry his production from the FCL to A-Ball. In 153 plate appearances, De Los Santos hit just .184/.322/.256. The only improvement he made was to his walk rate, upping it to 14.4%. His K% nearly tripled to 39.2%, and his ISO dropped below .100 to just .072. His final line included a .299 wOBA, and 72 wRC+.

While De Los Santos has yet to hit for much in-game power, he’s consistently been able to show plus raw power. His hit tool remains on the fringy side of things, with FanGraphs projecting it as a 45-grade weapon. He is currently a solid base runner, but there is some concern how his speed will play as he continues to fill his frame out. He is listed at 6’1”, 170-LBS and he won’t turn 19 until February 17th.

As a defender, he’s shown off a solid glove at shortstop with a strong arm that can play on the left side of the infield. His range will determine if he will remain at shortstop long term. He has the athleticism, however, which could make up for the potentially fringy speed that could develop if he fills his frame out more.

Honorable mentions: Tsung-Che Cheng

Left Field - Rodolfo Nolasco

Most outfielders start their careers out in center field. You don’t find too many who were drafted, or signed internationally as a left fielder or right fielder. Because of that, I am taking some liberties here, but as of right now, Rodolfo Nolasco is the Pirates’ best left field prospect. Nolasco has major risk, but also major upside. Despite being part of the organization since 2018, Nolasco just turned 22 in late-September.

Nolasco had an interesting year for Bradenton. In 444 plate appearances, he batted .214/.351/.440 with a .372 wOBA, and 116 wRC+. Nolasco was a full-on three-true-outcomes hitter. He struck out 34.6% of the time, but he also walked in 16% of his plate appearances, and hit 20 home runs with a .227 isolated slugging percentage. 

There were very few players as three-true-outcomes-like as Nolasco. Of all the minor league batters with at least 300 plate appearances, only 15 had struck out at least a third of the time, walked in 12% of their plate appearances, and had an ISO of at least .200. Nolasco was one of the better ones, ranking in the top half of wRC+ (6th), and wOBA (5th).

Nolasco is powerful. He has 60-grade raw power, and has consistently been one of the best power hitting prospects in the Pirates’ system. He’s also a patient batter. This is the third year in a row he’s posted an 11%+ walk rate. But his strikeout rate has steadily been climbing since 2021. 34.2% was only a .2% uptick from 2022, but an uptick nonetheless. 

Nolasco is an okay runner, and can steal a base when asked. He was 11-13 in attempts this year. He’s also not a horrible fielder either, and comes with a plus arm. His range, however, is a question. He is solely a corner outfielder, but probably plays best in left field, the position he primarily played this year.

But the bat is Nolasco’s meal ticket, and how he’s played the last two years is concerning. To his credit, he has fully embraced the three-true-outcomes approach, but while that has worked for him at A-Ball, it might become an issue as he gets to higher levels. But he still has another year or so before you can fully rule him out. Let’s see if he can make some adjustments at Greensboro next year, and become a more complete hitter.

Center Field - Lonnie White Jr.

Lonnie White Jr. was another prospect who had a massive 2023 breakout season. A high school draft pick back in 2021, White Jr. struggled with injuries since getting signed. He even missed the first two months of 2023. But when he returned, he came back with a vengeance, and cemented himself as one of, if not the best outfield prospect in the Pirates’ system.

In 276 plate appearances, White slashed .276/.406/.476 with a .417 wOBA, and 139 wRC+. White Jr. was one of the few on-base+power threats in the minor leagues this year. There were only 77 players across all minor league levels with a .400+ OBP and .450+ SLG% in 250+ PAs. White walked at an extremely high 15.6% rate, and had an ISO of .200, on the dot. The only major downside to his season was his 27.2% strikeout rate.

White Jr. is one of the fastest runners in the Pirates’ system. On top of that, he has a fantastic glove out in center field. His arm is closer to average, but will still play nicely out of center. White also projects as an above average power hitter, but his hit tool is still in question. While he hit above .270, he also struck out over a quarter of the time. 

But I believe he has the make-up to improve his game. He is an extremely athletic player who should have no issues staying in center field for the long haul. White has shown off some lighting quick bat speed, though his swing is a tad long. 

The top outfield prospect is still only 20 years old and won’t turn 21 until the very last day of the year, December 31st. If he can cut his K% down to around 25% or lower, it will mark a step forward in 2024. He has the tools to be a quality center fielder in the future. The best possible outcome is a 30/30 Gold Glove threat. The hit tool makes him a slight risk, but he has the make-up to help improve it.

Right Field - Estuar Suero

Like I stated with Nolasco, you rarely see a player start their career out in an outfield corner. Most start their career out in center field, but move to a corner position once they reach the upper levels of the minor leagues or the Majors. Because of that, I am taking some liberty again with this one, and putting Estuar Suero as the Pirates’ best right field prospect.

The Pirates acquired Suero at the trade deadline as part of the Ji-Man Choi/Rich Hill trade package. Since coming to the Pirates’ he’s hit .217/.379/.326 with a .363 wOBA, and 99 wRC+. Suero drew the same amount of walks to strikeouts with a dozen of each for a 20.7% rate. These may not be impressive numbers, but it was in just 53 plate appearances for the Pirates’ FCL affiliate team.

However, prior to the trade, Suero was batting just .216/.306/.345 with a .313 wOBA, and 65 wRC+ for the Padres’ FCL team. While he had a 10% walk rate, he also struck out about 30% of the time (30.7% to be exact). Plus he only hit four home runs in 160 plate appearances. Not the greatest start to the year for Suero.

But Suero is a physical specimen. He is a 6’5”, 180-LBS kid who just turned 18 on August 29th. He has also clocked in some very impressive run times. If that wasn’t impressive enough, he is also a switch-hitter. There’s a reason why many are enamored with him. But his swing is long and could get in the way, but it’s not as if there isn’t time for him to iron things out and improve his game.

Just saying, the last time the Pirates traded a veteran lefty pitcher for a tall and lanky, but extremely young Dominican Republic kid, it ended with Oneil Cruz. Admittedly, that is an extremely lazy comparison. But you’re still talking about a 6’5”, 180-pound kid who has already shown double-plus speed and power potential. But it’s not as if he's the safest prospect to ever be, and it will be a few years until we really see what he can do and if he develops into his potential.

Right-Handed Starting Pitcher - Paul Skenes

Paul Skenes is the complete package for a pitcher: a flaming four-seam fastball, a slider that is unhittable, and a change-up that falls off the table. On top of that, he’s an athletic pitcher who probably could have seen time as a two-way player if he opted to. But even just as a pitcher, Skenes has the ceiling of a generational talent.

Throughout his season at Louisiana State University, Skenes pitched 122.2 innings, enroute to a College World Series title. His final line included a 1.69 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, and 10.45 K:BB ratio, Skenes only allowed seven home runs as well, which is good for an 0.51 HR/9. Skenes struck out 209 batters, resulting in a K% of 45.2%. His 20 walks gave him a BB% of 4.3%. There’s not many other ways to put it other than just pure video game numbers.

After the Pirates drafted Skenes number one overall and signed him to a record breaking $9.2 million signing bonus, the flamethrower was put on a strict innings limit. In five starts spread between the FCL and Double-A, Skenes only pitched 6.2 innings. All of his earned runs came in one start for Altoona. However, he struck out 10 batters and only allowed two to reach via free pass.

Skenes was tossing 100+ MPH with ease during his season at LSU. 103 MPH is the fastest he threw, but was consistently sitting 97-100 MPH. Skenes also tosses a slider with wicked break, and a change-up. Both his four-seamer and slider are 80-grade offerings, but don’t sleep on his change-up. It has the potential to develop into a 60-grade pitch. Skenes also started to throw a curveball a couple of times in his starts with Bradenton.

Unlike many young hard throwing pitchers, Skenes does not struggle with command. Quite the opposite. He paints the zone just as good as anyone. He has a clean, low-effort delivery, and athleticism that could affect his long term projection shouldn’t be an issue. Skenes was a catcher/first baseman before transferring to LSU from the Air Force Academy.

The only question that really remains is when will Skenes make his big league debut? At the very least, you could guarantee him to be in the rotation by the All-Star break. Skenes could easily become the best pitcher the Pirates have had in decades, maybe even ever. That’s a lot to ask, but if there is any pitching prospect who’s come through the draft since Stephen Strasburg who could handle such a tall task, it’s Skenes.

Honorable Mentions: Jared Jones

Left-Handed Starting Pitcher - Anthony Solometo

While Skenes could be an ace with a blazing fastball, Anthony Solometo could also be an ace, but at a slower pace. Solometo was the Pirates’ second round draft pick in 2021. Since then, he’s developed nicely, and is on pace to be in the Pirates’ big league rotation sometime next season. The thing is, Solometo is even younger than Skenes.

In 110 innings pitched for both Greensboro and Altoona, Solometo worked to a quality 3.26 ERA, 3.46 FIP, and 1.19 WHIP. All of his peripherals were quality, owning a 26.2% K%, 8.6% BB%, and 0.65 HR/9 rate. Solometo’s numbers took a dip going from Greensboro to Altoona, but he was also the youngest pitcher in the Eastern League last year. Despite being the 28th youngest pitcher over the last decade to pitch 50+ innings at Double-A, he posted about league average numbers, which, in my opinion, says more about Solometo than his 4.35 ERA.

Solometo easily has the best command in the system. He cut his BB% down from 10.7% for Greensboro to just 6.5% after getting promoted. Even then, that doesn’t do him justice as to how good he is at hitting his spots. Not only can he locate better than most prospects, he does so with a ton of deception.

Solometo has an extremely low arm-slot, similar to that of Madison Bumgarner. With a big leg kick and an arm motion that brings the ball back as far as Solometo can reach, it makes all of his stuff play up. Speaking of his stuff, everything sits at about a 55-grade level. Solometo saw a decent velocity bump this season, going from 90-92 MPH, to 92-94 MPH, and topping out at 95. His fastball also has arm-side run. Both his slider and change-up have proven to be good pitches as well.

Solometo with his wicked motion, and his laser-like command are going to be fun to watch at PNC Park next season. Solometo could start 2024 at Indianapolis at just 21. There have only been 25 pitchers to throw at least 50 innings at the Triple-A level since 2013 (including Jared Jones), so to get Solometo work in at Triple-A at that age is something that he and the Pirates should be proud of.

Honorable mentions: Michael Kennedy, Hunter Barco

Relief Pitcher - Tyler Samaniego

Tyler Samaniego had a pretty weird season. Even though he improved his game in multiple areas, he seemingly could never get the defense to cooperate and get him outs. Samaniego was the definition of an unlucky pitcher. Despite inducing a ton of strikeouts and ground balls, he seemingly could not get things to go his way.

Through 47.1 innings, Samaniego had a 26% strikeout rate, 11.1% walk rate, and an 0.38 HR/9. His ground ball rate was just a shade under 50% at 49.6%, and had a line drive rate of 19%. His strong peripherals resulted in a 3.25 FIP and 3.93 xFIP. But then there’s his ERA, coming in at 5.51. But why is that? Well, it is probably because of his .392 batting average on balls in play.

Samaniego is a three-pitch lefty. His fastball comfortably sits 94-95 while topping out at 96. He also throws a decent slider. His change-up has average potential, though his four-seamer and slider are considered above average offerings. His command can be inconsistent. Sometimes it looks good, other times he struggles. 

Samaniego has now experienced the two greatest extremes of batting ball luck. In 2022, he had a .142 batting average on balls in play. This year, he was just under .400 at .392. What’s he going to do in 2024 based on batted ball numbers? No one is really sure, but there is the potential of a quality lefty set-up man within Samaniego. The Pirates will have a potential audition between Angel Perdomo and Jose Hernandez for the second lefty bullpen spot to open 2024. Maybe Samaneigo can sneak in there and claim the role for himself.