Pittsburgh Pirates: Comparing Projected 2023 Lineup & 2013's Lineup

It's been nearly a decade since the Pittsburgh Pirates ending their losing seasons streak. After improving their lineup this offseason, how do the two compare?

The 2023 season will be ten years since the Pittsburgh Pirates made their return to Buctober in 2013 since 1992. This started a three-year run where they made the Wild Card game but, unfortunately, never made it past the NLDS. But ten years later, the Pirates are showing some decent improvement. Both prospects and new veteran additions are coming to the Pirates' roster, and they look to make '23 an interesting year.

Given that it's been ten years since the Pirates constructed their magical 2013 line-up, I want to go back and take a look at that line-up compared to what they're projected to put out there in 2023. Plus let's see if each position has a better player or worse player at it today.

Catcher

The Pittsburgh Pirates signed Russell Martin as their backstop in the 2012-2013 offseason. At the time, they wanted to take advantage of framing, and Martin brought just that to the table. Martin's defense was off the charts in 2013, racking up +21 defensive runs saved and +13.1 framing runs. Martin likely would have taken home the Gold Glove this season had it not been for a historic defensive season from Yadier Molina, who had +30 DRS and +21.1 framing runs. That's still the most DRS in a single season by a backstop, tied with Roberto Perez in 2019.

It also helped that the former all-star was a respectable batter. Martin slashed .227/.327/.377 with a .315 wOBA and 102 wRC+, making him slightly above average. Martin walked at an 11.5% rate with 15 home runs and a .151 isolated slugging percentage. Between his outstanding defense and solid offense, Martin was worth +5.4 fWAR.

Fast forward to 2023, and the Pirates have Austin Hedges behind the plate. The Bucs still have one of the best defensive catchers in the game. Last year, Hedges had +8 DRS, and +4.4 framing runs in just 839 innings. Those are actually poor numbers for Hedges as he's put up +20 DRS/+20 framing run seasons in the past. Despite catching over 8500 fewer innings than Martin in his career, Hedges already has 57.3% of Martin's total DRS.

But while Hedges might be a fantastic defender, he provides almost no value with the bat. He's failed to post a wRC+ above 50 since 2019. Last year, he slashed just .163/.241/.248 with a .225 wOBA, and 42 wRC+. Since the Year of the Pitcher in 1968, Hedges's 2022 season is the third worst hitting year per OPS, tied with Dick Billings in 1973 for the second worst per wOBA and the 14th-worst per wRC+. Believe it or not, Hedges had an even worst wRC+ in 2021 at 40.

Martin is the clear-cut better player here. The two might be comparable in defense, but when it comes to hitting, Hedges makes Russell Martin look like early-2000s Barry Bonds. The difference between Martin's wRC+ in 2013 and Hedges's wRC+ in 2022 was about the same difference between Shohei Ohtani and Jorge Mateo last year.

Second Base

Second base in 2013 was manned by the Pittsburgh Kid, Neil Walker. Walker provided solid numbers in 2013, slashing .251/.339/.418 with a .333 wOBA, and 115 wRC+. Walker hit for decent power with 16 home runs (marking the fourth straight year in a row he hit at least a dozen)  across 551 plate appearances with a .167 ISO. He also struck out just 15.4% of the time with a healthy 9.1% walk rate. The switch-hitter was among the top hitters among his peers at his position, ranking sixth in wRC+, seventh in OPS, and ninth in wOBA among second basemen with 500+ plate appearances.

Although Walker would go down in Pirate history as arguably their best hitting second baseman, defense wasn't his calling card. 2013 was no different as he had zero DRS, but -3.8 UZR/150. This was one of his better defensive seasons at second as it's the only year he didn't grade as a negative defender in defensive runs saved, and was his third best single-season UZR/150 mark. Walker still was a key player for this 2013 team.

While the 2023 players could have a top prospect at the keystone by the end of the year, they'll go into the season with Rodolfo Castro manning the position. Castro is coming off a relatively solid rookie campaign in which he batted .233/.299/.427. Power is Castro's calling card, and he hit 11 home runs in just 278 plate appearances, with an ISO approaching .200 at .194. But in terms of plate discipline, Castro had a 7.9% walk rate and 26.6% strikeout rate. All told, he had a .315 wOBA, and 103 wRC+. But Castro was great in the home stretch of 2022, owning a .797 OPS, .342 wOBA, and 121 wRC+ from August 10th onward.

Castro's second base defense was mediocre at best. In just 236 innings, he had -2 DRS, -3 OAA, and a -9.2 UZR/150. Granted, the Pirates did move Castro around the diamond in 2022, giving him over 150 innings at shortstop and third base. However his fielding has never been considered a particular strength of his.

Now if Castro continues to hit like he did in August onward, and hits his offensive ceiling, then he'll be a better hitter than Walker was in '13. However, Walker was much more proven going into 2013 than Castro is going into 2023. Walker had three previous seasons where he had a 106 wRC+ or greater. For now, I'd give Walker the slightest edge. However, I 100% believe that could change by the time summer rolls around this year.

Shortstop

In 2013, the Pittsburgh Pirates had a late-career veteran and first year rookie getting most of the playing time at shortstop. The late career veteran was Clint Barmes. Barmes was the definition of a defensive specialist. Never known for his hitting ability, Barmes clocked in with a .211/.239/.302 line across 330 plate appearances. Up to this point in his career, it was his worst offensive season as he had a 53 wRC+ and .244 wOBA. 

But in just 804.1 innings, Barmes had +5 defensive runs saved. UZR/150 didn't view him in a positive light at -1.3, however he had double digit DRS in the two seasons prior to 2013, and a well above average UZR/150 in both years. 

The first year rookie was Jordy Mercer. Mercer was a far better hitter than Barmes, slashing .285/.336/.435. Although he had a sub-par 6% walk rate, he only struck out in 17% of his 365 plate appearances. He also had a respectable .150 ISO. Overall, he had a .333 wOBA, and 115 wRC+. Mercer had the seventh best wRC+, eighth best OPS, and wOBA among shortstops with 300+ plate appearances. He was also the best hitting rookie shortstop, leading them all in those three statistics.

While Mercer was light years ahead of Barmes in terms of offense, his defense was far behind Barmes. Mercer had -10 defensive runs saved with a -14.4 UZR/150. While he was one of the better hitting shortstops, he was one of the worst fielding shortstops. He had the seventh fewest DRS and the second worst UZR/150 among players with 550+ innings at the middle infield position.

This season, the Pirates will have maybe the most enticing player in the National League Central, and maybe one of the most exciting players in baseball. That's Oneil Cruz. Cruz didn't do terribly in his rookie season, batting .233/.294/.450 through 361 plate appearances. Cruz is known for his massive power potential, having top of the line raw power. He also hit 17 home runs with a .218 ISO. Overall he had a .320 wOBA, and 106 wRC+. Like Castro, Cruz also did outstanding in the home stretch. From August 20th through the end of the year, Cruz had a .275/.353/.523 slash, and 145 wRC+. However, the most impressive part is that he was much more selective at the plate, and made the proper adjustments to his plate discipline.

While lots of fans rag on Cruz's defense, it's not as bad as many point out. Sure, he had -15.4 UZR/150 and -9 OAA in less than 800 innings, but he also had +1 DRS and was well above average in terms of range factor. Both RF/9 and RF/G pinned him as a great defensive shortstop and even better than the National League Gold Glove winner, Dansby Swanson. 

Oneil Cruz clears the Mercer/Barmes duo. Sure, he wasn't nearly as good as Barmes when it comes to defense, but he was still better than Mercer in 2013. Plus he did outstanding in the last month and a half of the year, making major improvements to his game. Cruz has massive potential going into 2023, but even ignoring that, he was still more valuable than the 2013 Mercer/Barmes duo.

Third Base

The guys at the hot corner both in 2013 and 2023 are very decisive players. In 2013, that player was Pedro Alvarez. Alvarez hit .233/.296/.473 with a .330 wOBA, and 112 wRC+. Alvarez struck out just over 30% of the time (30.3%) with a solid 7.8% walk rate. But he led the National League in home runs, crushing 36 round trippers in 614 plate appearances. He also had an impressive .240 ISO.

Although Alvarez had some terrible defensive seasons in his career, 2013 was his best with the leather. He had +2 DRS and a -2.8 UZR/150. It wasn't anything great, and if you sat on the first base line of PNC Park, you had to be extra attentive to the game when there was a ground ball hit to Alvarez, but he held his own and did what was needed. Although you couldn't say that about his future seasons or his past seasons.

Ke'Bryan Hayes on the other hand batted just .244/.314/.345 with a .294 wOBA, and 88 wRC+. Although Hayes was about average in the batting average and OBP departments, while coming in above average in walk rate (8.6%) and strikeout rate (21.6%), Hayes's ISO was just .101. He was one of the worst hitting 3Bs in the game last year unfortunately. He had an issue with lifting the ball, which means he wasn't taking advantage of his outstanding raw power.

But in terms of defense, he wasn't just the best fielder at his position., but he was arguably the best defender in all of baseball. Hayes had +24 DRS, a +7.2 UZR/150, and +18 outs above average. Hayes led all fielders in DRS by a margin of two runs. He was fourth to just Swanson, Jonathan Schoop, and Tommy Edman in outs above average. Despite his poor offense, Hayes had +3 fWAR on the season.

Hayes is the best defensive third baseman the Pirates have ever had. Sure, Alvarez's 2013 wasn't the worst year of his career with the glove, but it pales in comparison. Alvarez had a large advantage in offense, but even if Hayes clears a 110 wRC+ next season, he'll be leagues above Alvarez. 

Left Field

Starling Marte made his presence well known with his stellar rookie 2013 campaign. In 556 plate appearances, Marte hit .280/.343/.441. Marte showed some power and plenty of speed. He had a dozen home runs with a .161 isolated slugging percentage, but also stole 41 bases. Marte, as well as former Milwaukee Brewers center fielder Carlos Gomez were the only players with 40+ steals and a dozen or more home runs in 2013. 

The downside to Marte's game was his plate discipline, drawing walks at a poor 4.4% rate with an unspectacular 24.4% streikout rate. But despite his lack of walks and below average streikout rate, Marte was still a well above average hitter. He had a .344 wOBA, and 122 wRC+. It also helps that he was an outstanding defender with +2 DRS and a +12.8 UZR/150. With a +4.3 fWAR, Marte led all National League rookies.

While the Pittsburgh Pirates are unsure of who takes over one of the corner outfield spots, Ji-Hwan Bae is a safe bet to start the year out in left field. The South Korean prospect has mostly played middle infield throughout his minor league career, but has seen the amount of time spent in the outfield grass increase over the last two seasons. 

Bae had a fine season at Triple-A, batting .289/.362/.430. Bae is an extremely fast runner and was in the top 90th percentile of sprint speed during his brief MLB stint. It helps that he hits for average and consistently draws walks. Bae had a 10.1% walk rate with a strikeout rate of just 16.7%, which is the third season in a row he's had a 10%+ walk rate.

Although power is Bae's biggest weakness, he did match his career high home run total last season with eight, and had a career best .141 isolated slugging percentage. During his late-season stint in the majors, Bae collected 11 hits, including three doubles, and struck out just six times across 33 plate appearances. He was also three-for-three in stolen base attempts.

Although Bae has a very good feel for hitting and draws his fair share of walks, it's going to be hard to top a 4+ fWAR season with a wRC+ above 120. That doesn't mean I think Bae will  be a poor player, but a 4+ fWAR and 120+ is generally considered all-star level. Marte takes the cake here.

Center Field

The Pirates had the National League's best center fielder in 2013, with Andrew McCutchen. McCutchen is returning for a homecoming this year to serve as a DH/LF option, but many will remember him for his 2013 MVP campaign. In 674 trips to the plate, Cutch batted .317/.404/.508. Cutch rarely struck out with a striekout rate of just 15%, but also had an outstanding 11.6% walk rate. He also had a nice blend of power and speed. He swatted 21 dingers with a .190 ISO, but also swiped 27 bases. At the end of the season, Cutch had a 156 wRC+.

2013 was his best defensive season as well. He had +3 defensive runs saved and a +3.6 UZR/150. Although McCutchen was never considered a fantastic defensive center fielder, he did his job in 2013 and was above average. Plus a more classic rate stat like range factor also held him in a positive light.

Now in 2023, we have the man the Pirates traded McCutchen for, Bryan Reynolds. Reynolds is coming off yet another fantastic season in 2022, batting .262/.345/.461 with a .349 wOBA, and 125 wRC+. Aside from the shortened 2020 season, this was Reynolds' worst season yet, but he was still 25% better than the league average batter. Reynolds hit a career best 27 home runs with a .199 ISO, and had an above average 9.1% walk rate. The downside is he had his worst career strikeout rate at just 23%.

Although Reynolds graded out as a solid defensive center fielder in 2021, he took a massive step backward this past season. He had -14 defensive runs saved with a -1.8 UZR/150. However what was more concerning was his -7 outs above average, which is by far a career worst by nine outs. Left Field is arguably Reynolds' best position, but if he can rebound in 2023 and return to his 2021 form, he'll be just fine.

Reynolds can make it a really close race if he repeats his 2021 season. There are a lot of similarities between 2013 Cutch and 2021 Reynolds. Reynolds batted .302/.390/.522. McCutchen batted .317/.404/.508. They both had identical 11.6% walk rates. Cutch had a .393 wOBA while Reynolds clocked in at .385.

But after adjusting for the league environment, Cutch had a 156 wRC+ while Reynolds only came in with a 141 mark. That's still outstanding, but 16% worse than the 2013 MVP. Cutch takes it here. His 2013 season is one of the best in Pirates history. 

Right Field

Right Field was a bit of a mess for the 2013 Pirates. Getting most of the playing time was Jose Tabata. The outfielder was a very solid hitter for the Bucs, slashing .282/.342/.429 through 341 plate appearances. Although he had just a 6.7% walk rate, he struck out at a 13.2% pace. Tabata was never known as a big power hitter, but his isolated slugging percentage of .146 was three points greater than the average. All told, Tabata amounted to a .340 wOBA/119 wRC+ batter.

Defensively, Tabata was not very good, to say the least. He split his time between left Field and right Field, but had -3 DRS and a -8.9 UZR/150 in right. This was in just 340.2 innings. He was also well below average in range factor, displayed a mediocre arm in the outfield corners. But the other player, Travis Snider, offset some of his defensive struggles.

Snider was much less of a batter to Tabata, only hitting .215/.281/.333. He did have a better 8.4% walk rate, but that's the only advantage he had over Tabata. He struck out over a quarter of the time with a 26.3% streikout rate, and had an ISO of just .119. This amounted to a 71 wRC+, making him 29% worse than league average and 47% worse than Tabata.

But he was a solid defensive outfielder. Although he had 0 DRS, he had +2.7 UZR/150 and positive reviews for his arm. He was also much better than Tabata in both range factor measurements (RF/9 and RF/G). Snider saw a decent amount of time in left Field, but most of his time was spent in right. The Pirates also used Garrett Jones out there a fair amount, and things really didn't get settled in until they acquired Marlon Byrd in late August.

Now in 2023, the Pittsburgh Pirates will look to platoon two players in right Field. The first is 2022 standout rookie Jack Suwinski. Suwinski was a league average hitter in 2022, slashing .202/.298/.411. Although Suwinski struck out in over 30% of his plate appearances, he also had an 11% walk rate and hit 19 home runs, leading to a .209 isolated slugging percentage. With a .709 OPS, .311 wOBA, and 100 wRC+, he was essentially league average on the dot.

But Suwinski also provided outstanding defense. He saw many innings at each outfield position, racking up +2 DRS and +1 OAA. UZR/150 also viewed Suwinski as a great defender at +7.8.

The other end of the right field platoon is Connor Joe. Joe had a poor 2022 with the Colorado Rockies in which he batted .238/.338/.359, amounting to a .314 wOBA, and 87 wRC+. Joe had a .121 isolated slugging percentage, and about the only positive to his season was his well above average plate discipline. He only struck out in 20.8% of his plate appearances with a strong 11.8% walk rate. But Joe did have a solid first half to the season, and had a 115 wRC+ just last year.

Joe has never been known for his defense, but he went from a solid defender in 2021 to mediocre at best in 2022. While UZR/150 had him at +6.9, he had 0 DRS, and -5 OAA. He played a handful of games in right Field where his worst defensive work came from. 

If the Pittsburgh Pirates had Marlon Byrd for half of the 2013 season, then they would have the edge here. But until late-August, they relied on a fairly average group of players. Suwinski crushes RHP and Joe hits respectably vs LHP. Joe may also see improvement to his defense. Coors Field has the fourth deepest outfield while PNC has the 26th deepest outfield. In the end, I'm giving a slight edge to the 2023 group.