Pittsburgh Pirates: Constructing a Potentially Perfect Off-Season

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a big winter coming up, but what would a perfect off-season look like for the Bucs?

The upcoming off-season will be a massive one for the Pittsburgh Pirates. It might be the most important off-season of the franchise’s recent history, and it will likely shape the rest of Ben Cherington’s tenure as the Pirates’ general manager, however long that may be. The current team isn’t perfect but has a quality foundation. Of course, up and coming prospects, and a breakout from some of the young players could help reinforce and build upon said foundation, but it would be a major help if the Pirates were to add from outside the organization.

This free agent class is relatively thin, at least compared to previous free agent classes. But there are still additions the Pirates could make. If I had a say in the matter, these acquisitions would make this off-season perfect. It would be the most ideal additions to both make the roster better, and potentially make this team not just a playoff contender, but a division contender as well.

Andrew McCutchen

Yeah, this one is pretty obvious. It’s so obvious, I didn’t include it in my Pirates’ off-season wishlist. But if we are talking about what would make the most perfect Pirate off-season, I don’t think you can exclude Andrew McCutchen from said list. Signing McCutchen is a must, assuming he is healthy and does not retire.

In McCutchen’s return to Pittsburgh, he batted a solid .256/.378/.397 with a dozen home runs. Even though McCutchen is in his age-36 season and his 15th big league campaign, the former MVP posted a career-best 15.9% walk rate (he had a higher walk rate in the shortened 2020 season, though in less than 300 plate appearances). His 21.1% strikeout rate was also the best he posted since 2017. His overall .345 wOBA, and 115 wRC+ made it his best full season since 2018.

McCutchen also played through an elbow injury that occurred in Spring Training but became an issue in early July after he was hit by a pitch and landed on his right arm. McCutchen hit the IL, and the numbers showed it really sapped his power. McCutchen had hit ten home runs and had a .157 isolated slugging percentage up until this injury, but after said injury, he had just two dingers and an ISO of .109. He may not have been the power threat he was early in his career, but an ISO around .160 is about league average.

McCutchen’s season was cut short after a partially torn left Achilles, and while it may only take this off-season to heal, there is a reason for concern. This is the same leg that McCutchen tore his ACL just a few years ago with the Philadelphia Phillies in 2019. While he also rebounded from that, it marks the second major injury to his left leg over the last five years. McCutchen will turn 37 next week, so there is a reasonable concern as to how much he has left in the tank.

Still, I don’t see McCutchen going anywhere else but retirement at this stage of his career. McCutchen is very close to reaching a handful of career milestones. He is one home run away from 300, 52 hits away from 2100, +1.4 bWAR away from +50, and 27 runs scored away from 1200. Cutch signed for one-year/$5 million last off-season. I could very well see him signing an identical contract. 

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Yoshinobu Yamamoto is one of the most hyped international prospects in recent history. The Japanese superstar ace is coming off a year that would have rivaled a year from prime Bob Gibson or Pedro Martinez. Now Yamamoto looks to take his extreme talent stateside and land a Major League Baseball contract.

In 171 innings for the Orix Buffaloes, Yamamoto worked to a 1.16 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, and 6.3 K:BB ratio. Yamamoto had just a 4.2% walk rate, as well as a healthy 26.7% strikeout rate, and allowed home runs at a 0.11-per-9 pace. This will mark the third season in a row Yamamoto has posted a sub-2.00 ERA and the fourth time he’s done that throughout his career. Yamamoto’s highest single-season ERA comes in at just 2.35, which was back in his 2017 rookie campaign, as a 17-year-old and in less than 60 innings. Yamamoto has also posted a sub-1.00 WHIP every year since 2017.

Yamamoto has the stuff to be a quality big league regular. Yamamoto typically sits around 94-96 MPH but can crank it up into the upper-90s when needed. He can manipulate his four-seamer as well to make it sink, cut, or ride through the zone. Yamamoto’s fastball may have plus potential, but it’s not his best pitch. That title would belong to his spitter. Yamamoto’s primary breaking pitch is a 12-6 curveball, and his secondary breaker is a slider.

Yamamoto has excellent control and command. He’s also an athletic presence on the mound, as he’s one of the most athletic pitchers in the NBP. Yamamoto is on the smaller side for a pitcher at 5’10”, 176 pounds. But you can’t deny the talent regardless of his smaller stature. He could make waves in 2024.

Is this unrealistic? Well, maybe not entirely. Cherington has hinted at the Pirates potentially being aggressive in international free agency. The Pirates have shown great interest in Yamamoto, and I believe they will make a competitive offer to the right-handed starting pitcher. But it will probably take a lot to get him to sign. He'll probably get offered something similar to Masahiro Tanaka did in the 2013-2014 off-season, which was a seven-year deal worth $155 million. That's a major ask from the Pirates, though if they truly are serious about exploring the International market, and Yoshinobu is at the top of their lits, they should go big or go home.

Hyun Jin Ryu

The off-season wouldn’t be perfect under Ben Cherington’s rule if the Pirates didn’t sign a veteran left-handed starting pitcher. Even if the Pirates were to sign Yamamoto, that would give them three starting pitchers, and leaving the last two rotation spots up to the inexperienced youngsters. Let’s make it a little more stable by adding another SP, this time in the form of Hyun Jin Ryu.

After missing most of 2022 and 2023, Ryu came back in August of this year and pitched pretty well throughout his final games. In 52 frames, Ryu worked to a 3.47 ERA, 4.91 FIP, and 1.29 WHIP. Ryu’s 17% strikeout rate is the lowest of his career, but he still carried a quality 6.3% walk rate. Although Ryu had a 1.59 HR/9, he also had a 16.4% HR/FB ratio. Ryu still carried an above-average 45.6% ground ball rate and 87.8 MPH exit velocity.

Ryu’s ERA estimator numbers weren’t very kind to him. He ended the 2023 season with a 4.41 xFIP, 4.70 SIERA, and 114 DRA-. The underlying number that viewed Ryu in the best light was xERA at 3.90. Though Ryu has consistently been an overperformer with a career 3.27 ERA, but 3.57 xFIP, 3.80 SIERA, and 86 DRA- (compared to a career 82 ERA-). Even in the two years he was a Cy Young candidate (2019-2020), his ERA estimations pinned him at about a run better than he actually was.

While it wouldn’t be all that surprising if Ryu continued to outperform his numbers, keep in mind that Ryu will be 37 for all of next season, and is coming off a fairly big injury. Ryu may never have been a hard throwing pitcher, but his 88.6 MPH fastball velo is the worst of his career. Though in the Pirates’ defense, they were able to make do with a similarly soft-tossing lefty in Rich Hill last season. Despite his lack of velocity, he’s still getting batters to swing outside the zone, and making them hit the ball on the ground softly at an above-average rate.

Again, what kind of off-season would it be if Ben Cherington didn’t sign a soft-tossing lefty veteran starter? I’d estimate that Ryu would make something like most of the Pirates’ previous lefty veteran starters have made. The average salary between Tyler Anderson, Jose Quintana, and Rich Hill is $4.2 million. Even though Ryu was once one of the best starters in baseball, he’s coming off three relatively disappointing seasons and is in his late-30s. Assuming Ryu doesn’t head back to South Korea, I’d say that a contract in the $4-5 million range may possibly get it done.