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Pittsburgh Pirates Draft: An Under Slot Pitcher & Position Player to Watch

By Noah Wright |
Mar 30, 2023; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates second baseman Ji Hwan Bae (3) warms up in
Mar 30, 2023; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates second baseman Ji Hwan Bae (3) warms up in / Sam Green-USA TODAY Sports
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The Pittsburgh Pirates should keep an eye out for these two college players who could sign for under-slot value in this year's draft

A few months ago, we took a look at two players, a pitcher and position player, that the Pittsburgh Pirates could select for over slot money. But the Pirates may end up spending a whole lot of money in the first few rounds. Dylan Crews may break the all-time signing bonus record. However, that will cost the Pirates a lot of their draft money.

Because of that, the Pirates will likely have to select an under-slot player at some point. Every team picks a player with the intention of signing them for a deal lower than their draft slot value. If the Pirates need to save some money after drafting Crews, here is one pitcher and position player that may be on the Pirates’ radar.

Quinn Mathews

Quinn Mathews is a left-handed pitcher for Stanford University. Mathews looked pretty decent in 2022, pitching to the tune of a 3.08 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 2.27 K:BB ratio. Mathews showed off a strong ability to prevent home runs from leaving the park with an 0.40 HR/9 rate, while also inducing strikeouts at a 26.3% rate. Where he struggled was with free passes, allowing a walk to 11.6% of the batters faced.

Mathews was used as both a reliever and starting pitcher, appearing in 27 games with a third being starts. He also saved nine games. The southpaw was then picked in the 19th round by the Tampa Bay Rays, however, the two sides could not come to an agreement. Mathews returned to Stanford as a senior in 2023 and has gotten off to a great start in 2023.

He’s started seven games and pitched 45.1 innings, working to a 2.78 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 2.41 K:BB ratio. His HR/9 currently sits at 0.60 while his walk rate comes in at 11.9%, but has seen a slight uptick in strikeout rate, up to 28.6%. Overall, his peripherals haven’t changed all that much, but given that he’s been able to do it primarily as a starter this year.

Mathews’ fastball has impressive vertical movement with his fastball, which helps makes up for his four-seamer’s lack of velocity. He only sits in the low-90s, and tops out at 95. Though some evaluators believe there could be a little more velocity given more development. His changeup is an above-average pitch, though his two breaking balls are average at best, but can separate them in terms of velocity.

Mathews is currently in his age-22 season and stands at 6’2” and weighs 192 pounds. Mathews has some unorthodox mechanics and throws with an over-head arm slot. He’s definitely an interesting arm, and will likely sign for less than his slot value, given he is a senior. 

Ethan Groff

It’s harder to find senior position players in the draft, however, Ethan Groff may be one of the better ones. After consistently performing at a high level at Tulane University, Groff made the transfer to Ole Miss. Despite going from the AAC to the SEC, Groff has still been a high-end performer for the Rebels. 

So far in 131 plate appearances, Groff is slashing .353/.481/.578 with a .457 wOBA. He’s walked in a whopping 20 of his trips to the dish, resulting in a 15.3% walk rate. Not only has he walked a ton, but he’s struck out even less with a strikeout rate of just 12.2% walk rate. He’s been both a power and base running threat, with a .225 isolated slugging percentage, and swiping ten bases in 11 attempts. He’s only hit four home runs but has hustled out nine doubles.

Though there’s certainly reason for concern with drafting Groff. His performances are generally fueled by a high batting average on balls in play, and his raw power doesn’t stand out in any way. He’s considered about an average runner and will likely end up in an outfield corner long-term. However, that doesn’t mean there are no positives.

Groff may not be a first-rounder, and Prospects Live projects him to go late in the second day of the draft. However, the Pirates could still find value in Groff. He’s an outfielder, a position the Pirates don’t have very much depth at throughout the minor leagues, and he’s been able to successfully transition to the SEC.

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