Pittsburgh Pirates Draft: Potential Options at No. 1 Overall

The Pittsburgh Pirates might have one of the hardest draft decisions in baseball history, so who is a candidate to go number one overall?

The Pittsburgh Pirates lucked into the first overall pick of this year's draft because of the draft lottery, which Major League Baseball enacted this year. The pick seems like such an easy yet extremely hard decision at the same time. This might be the best first-round talent the draft has seen in decades. Multiple players could deservedly get record-breaking money. 

The Major League draft is rapidly approaching. What might end up as one of the hardest draft decisions in baseball history rests in the hands of the Pirates' general manager Ben Cherington. His drafts have worked out pretty well for the Pirates, so I have full faith he'll make the right choice when the Pirates are on the clock.

However, with the draft choice being so hard, who are these potential number-one picks? Why do they deserve such high praise, and why are they making it such a hard decision for the Pirates?

Dylan Crews

It's hard to believe that Dylan Crews isn't the automatic number-one pick. A guy who batted well over .400, got on base in every single one of his games in 2023, was a major contributor to Louisiana State University's College World Series run, and did all of that in the Southeastern Conference, isn't a guaranteed number-one pick. That should tell you how stacked this first round is.

Many saw Crews as the potential number-one pick even before the season started. Crews batted .349/.463/.691 through 307 plate appearances in 2022. The outfielder lifted off 22 times with a .349 isolated slugging percentage. He also walked in 13.7% of his plate appearances while having a healthy 18.2% K-rate. However, all of these numbers would pale compared to what he did in 2023.

Crews' 2023 season was nothing short of insanity. In 344 plate appearances, Crews put up an otherworldly .426/.567/.713 triple-slash. While Crews hit fewer home runs, with 18 long balls and a decreased .287 isolated slugging percentage, he still posted outstanding raw power numbers. Pitchers hated facing Crews. He drew walks at a 20.6% rate. However, what was even more impressive is that he struck out just 13.4% of the time. His walk rate from last year is higher than his K% from this season.

Crews was likely worked around a handful of times. After all, how many 18-20-year-old guys want to challenge a guy hitting like prime Barry Bonds? But Crews did have line-up protection, with potential future first-rounders like Jared Jones and Tommy White and fellow top draft prospect Tre' Morgan also batting around Dylan.

Crews' offensive ceiling is in the heavens. But it's not as if he's an all-bat player. Crews receives plus reviews for his ability to run and throw. His fielding is the weakest area of his game, and even that still projects as average to above average out of center field. He could be a plus defensive corner outfielder if worst comes to worst.

Dylan Crews could easily be the first $10 million draft prospect. What can't this guy do? He can hit a ton, field to an above-average level, and won't cost you any value on the base paths. If anything, he'll provide surplus value when he runs. There's a reason why Cres has been so hyped.

Paul Skenes

In any other year, Paul Skenes would easily be the number-one pick, no questions asked. If Dylan Crews had a historically dominant season with the bat, then Skenes turned in a historically dominant season while pitching for LSU. There's quite literally not been an arm like his in the draft.

After an astounding season at the Air Force Academy, where he had a 2.73 ERA as a pitcher and 1.046 OPS as a batter, Skeens turned his full attention to pitching in 2023, and it did wonders for him and Louisiana. Skenes pitched 122.2 innings, working to a microscopic 1.69 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, and 10.45 K:BB ratio. Skenes was basically untouchable. He struck out 209 batters, accounting for 45.2% of his opponents. He wasn't just overpowering batters. He was dotting them up too. He had an equally impressive 4.3% walk rate. It also helps that he allowed just seven home runs for a 0.51 HR/9 rate.

Going back just a couple of years ago, when people were saying Jack Leiter was going to go to the Pirates number one overall, Leiter's numbers in his final season at Vanderbilt do not even compare to Skenes' numbers this year. Leiter had a 2.13 ERA, 3.98 K:BB ratio, and 0.85 WHIP. He had a 41.2% K-rate but a 10.5% walk rate and a 1.15 HR/9 rate.

Skenes truly has two 80-grade pitches. His four-seam fastball consistently sits at 97-99 MPH while topping out at 102 MPH. It has considerable carry through the zone and a slight touch of glove-side run. His slider became even sharper once he got to LSU. Sitting around 85-89 MPH, Skenes throws this pitch with sweeping action and 11 inches of break. He throws this pitch with almost a football-like spiral, which adds to its movement. Skenes doesn't just have two top-of-the-line offerings. He also throws a plus change-up. His third and final offering sits in the upper-80s/low-90s.

Skenes has plus command and a three-quarters arm slot. There's no pitcher the draft has seen who is more complete than Paul Skenes. This is a potential top ten MLB starting pitcher right here, and in most cases, would be the go-to number one pick.

Max Clark

Max Clark has gained some significant traction over the last few weeks. Clark might be the best athlete of any of the names listed here today. He's extremely fast, will remain in center field long term, potentially compete for some Gold Gloves, and will be a plus hitter along with that. He's a full package that could go number one overall.

Clark's hitting ability has been graded anywhere from plus to double-plus. Clark is a guy who could consistently flirt with .300 in the future. He's mostly a gap hitter but has the power to muscle out 20-25 home runs on a consistent basis. He generates power with his quick bat, however, he does have some projectability and should add some more strength.

Although he isn't a two-way player, Clark has pitched a few games, displaying a 97 MPH fastball. That translates into a shoulder cannon in the outfield. Clark is extremely fast. He could pair 20-25 home runs with 40-45 stolen bases. He's also a strong defensive center field and should certainly find himself as a finalist, if not the winner of some Gold Gloves in the near future.

Clark has been compared to Henry Davis for his attitude toward playing. He has outstanding make-up putting 110% into the game and leaving it all on the field. He's yet another guy with five above-average or better tools. Clark would be the budget pick at number one if the Pirates think they can pull off a 2021 draft again.

Walker Jenkins

We get to our last prospect of the day, and that's Walker Jenkins. Jenkins' offensive ceiling is higher than Clark, though he is slower and comes with less defensive potential. However, we have our fourth five-tool outfielder of the day, and arguably a player who projects even better than Clark.

Jenkins has an equally as good hit tool as Clark and should be a .280-.300 hitter in the future. However, what Jenkins does that Clark doesn't is hit for a lot more power. While Clark might hit around 20-25 home runs, Jenkins should approach 30-35+. He also has clean mechanics, which will definitely help him in the long run. 

While Jenkins isn't the speed demon Clark is, he still is an above-average runner. He's also a good defensive right fielder with an arm to match the position. Again, there's not a single tool here that is below average. The worst is his fielding and speed, but even then, both items are still above average in all regards.

We're talking about a potential dark-horse budget play here by the Pirates. He's a second high school outfielder that could go off the board very early, and by that, I mean the first pick. If the Pirates have something lined up later in the draft they really want, don't rule out Jenkins.

Conclusion

If you ask me, it has to be either Dylan Crews or Paul Skenes. Langford is an outstanding batter, but the fact he is already in left field is a tad concerning. That doesn't mean I think he'll eventually end up at first base once again, but you want someone who is at least starting their pro career in center. Clark and Jenkins are both highly talented. However, while the Pirates have gone for the budget play in the past, I just don't see that happening here.

You also have to consider that where the Pirates are. The rebuild is starting to bear fruit. The Pirates have debuted three first round picks this month (if you want to count Carmen Mlodzinski as a first rounder), with a hanful of others on the way. Skenes and Crews could almost go directly from college to the major leagues.

Skenes and Crews are equal in ability if you ask me, just one is a pitcher, and the other is a batter. However, Skenes does come with more risk. Skenes already has over 200 innings on his arm in college. As I've previously talked about, going with a pitcher so early in the draft hasn't worked out for the Texas Rangers, who did that twice.

Crews is far less risky. There's not a single tool he brings to the table that doesn't have the potential to play at a plus level or better. However, Skenes would likely sign for slot or under slot money. It's already been stated that Crews' camp is looking for at least slot value, but it's likely nothing short of $10 million will convince Crews to sign.

I would love to see Paul Skenes pitch alongside Mitch Keller, Anthony Solometo, Johan Oviedo, Jared Jones, and whoever else fills out the rotation. But I'd equally like to see Dylan Crews take the outfield with Bryan Reynolds and Jack Suwinski/Connor Joe. In the end, I think you still have to look at it like this:

Skenes can only impact about 30-33 games a year. However, Crews' impact could be felt in 150+ games. Pitchers are more risky by default as well. I don't think there's a wrong answer in the Skenes vs. Crews debate; however, if I were given the pick, I'd choose Dylan Crews.