Pittsburgh Pirates: Each Breakout Candidate for 2023

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a handful of different potential breakout candidates as they head into the 2023 campaign, let's break each of them down

Every team has breakout candidates, but as a rebuilding team, the Pittsburgh Pirates have a ton. Many of their top prospects have made their debut but have yet to reach their potential fully. Much of the improvement may very well come from within the organization through players gaining big-league experience and figuring things out.

I am basing the potential breakout on a few criteria. They can't be a rookie, but they had to have shown potential in the past. They also can't have made the All-Star Game or have won an award like Rookie Of The Year, nor can they have produced at a high level over the course of more than a half-season in the past. Mitch Keller last year is a perfect example of what I mean: a former top prospect who struggled in his first few seasons but figured it out last year and put together a quality season.

Oneil Cruz

Oneil Cruz started to show what made him one of baseball's premier prospects at the tail end of the 2022 campaign. However, many of the worries both fans and evaluators alike plagued him for the first few months of his career. Up until August 20th, Cruz was a .198/.242/.390 batter with a .271 wOBA, and 72 wRC+. Strikeouts for Cruz were a major problem, as he struck out in 37.6% of his 194 plate appearances. It's not as if he helped offset that with his walk rate, with a walk rate of just 5.7%.

However, Cruz seemingly figured out an approach to the plate that worked for him. After August 20th, the towering shortstop batted .275/.353/.523. Cruz upped his walk rate to an impressive 10% rate, and while his 31.7% K-rate still was a tad high, it was a 5.9% improvement. Cruz's power also moved in the right direction. His exit velocity went up by just over 2 MPH (90.9 MPH to 93.2 MPH), and his ISO rose from below .200 to nearly .250 at .248. Cruz nearly doubled his wRC+, reaching all the way up to 145, making him 73% better than compared to his first-half stats.

The big adjustment Cruz made was he became more selective at the dish. Cruz swung outside the zone 27% of the time, which was better than the league average rate, which sat around 30%. He still had a below average out of zone contact rate, but his 84.5% in-zone contact rate was about league average. Another statistic that sat right on the league average was his 11.3% swinging strike rate. Impressively, Cruz's strikeout rate sat just below 30% through the final month of the year, clocking in at 29.4%.

Cruz's plate discipline went from well below average to slightly above average. Sure, he still has some swing-and-miss, but he made much more contact compared to the first half of his season. When Cruz makes contact, it's usually loud contact as well. He averaged out with a 91.6 MPH exit velocity and a 45.6% hard-hit rate.

The only question is if his defense will become too much of an issue. Last year, Cruz was worth -9 outs above average. While OAA put him in an extremely negative light, defensive runs saved put him about average at +1, as did total zone runs at the same value. Range factor viewed him in the best way, with +4.53 range factor per game, and +4.38 range factor per nine innings, both of which were better than National League shortstop Gold Glove recipient Dansby Swanson (3.67/3.63, respectively).

If Cruz carries over the plate discipline he showed at the end of last season, he could easily be one of the most productive batters in the National League. The raw talent is there, and he showed he can adjust. Now he needs to do it in a full season, which I, like many others, believe he can.

Ke'Bryan Hayes

Ke'Bryan Hayes was the Pirates' most infuriating player last season. You could just visualize the ability but just struggle to get the results. But based on his small Spring Training sample size, Hayes may have very well found something that works for him. If that change isn't just a product of Spring and a small sample, then he may end up as one of baseball's best third basemen.

The third baseman batted just .244/.314/.345 with a .294 wOBA and 88 wRC+. Hayes didn't strike out all that much, with a 21.4% strikeout rate in 560 plate appearances, and he drew some walks with an 8.6% walk rate. He also had an above-average whiff rate (75th percentile) and chase rate (63rd percentile). Raw power is not an issue for Hayes, as he was in the 85th percentile of exit velocity (91 MPH) and 84th percentile of hard-hit rate (46.8%).

But Hayes' launch angle was just 5.2 degrees, and this caused him to have a ground ball rate of nearly 50% at 49.4%. That was a slight improvement from his 52.7% ground ball rarte in 2021 but still was the main root of his issues. However, in Spring this season, that launch angle that previously clocked in below 6 degrees is now sitting right around 8.8-9.0 degrees. Back in 2020 when he made his debut and had a wRC+ of 194, his launch angle was 7.4 degrees.

Sure, his 2020 pace was likely unsustainable, but the important thing is that it shows he doesn't need to be Joey Gallo, going for an insanely high launch angle to be productive. Regarding expected statistics based on launch angle and exit velocity, he still had a .367 xwOBA.

Defensively, Hayes was the best in the league last year. He led his position in outs above average at +18, outshining division rival Nolan Arenado by four outs. In terms of defensive runs saved, Hayes led the league with +24, five more runs than Areando, and two more than Brendan Rogers, who finished in second place at the keystone.

Guys like Alejandro Kirk, Bo Bichette, Jose Abreu, Nate Lowe, and Willson Contreras may not have high launch angles, but they have similar raw power to Hayes and still manage to be good, even with an LA in the 7-8.5-degree range.

Roansy Contreras

The Pirates acquired Roansy Contreras in the Jameson Taillon swap in the 2020-2021 off-season. Since that trade, Contreras became one of baseball's fastest-rising prospects and is now set to be a regular in the Pirates' starting rotation going into next season. The talent he brings to the Bucs could carry their rotation for years to come.

Contreras worked to a 3.79 ERA, 4.38 FIP, and 1.27 WHIP through his 95-inning rookie season. The right-hander's 21.1% strikeout rate and 9.6% walk rate aren't great. His 1.29 HR/9 rate is also bloated. Three of the 13 home runs he allowed all came in just one 1.2-inning outing. On top of that, seven earned runs. Outside of that one game. Contreras had a 0.96 HR/9, 3.18 ERA, and 3.92 FIP.

Both his strikeout and walk rate could move in the right direction in 2023. He consistently struck out batters at a high rate in the minor leagues and had an 8.5% walk rate through his final ten starts of the season. He was also in the 64th percentile of whiff rate and 82nd percentile of chase rate. His 12th percentile exit velocity and 4th percentile hard hit rate were both worryingly bad, though, which is a cause for concern.

But either way, Contreras has the potential to be the long-term rotation anchor the Pirates need. Contreras fired off 2.2 strong innings in the World Baseball Classic and struck out ten batters in 9.1 innings during Spring Training. He has the potential to be baseball's biggest breakout pitcher candidate.

Rodolfo Castro

Rodolfo Castro entered the 2022 season with a chance to take the second base job. By the end of the year, he had a firm grasp on the position. While many were speculating another player would steal it from Castro, there's no doubt that he is the second baseman in Pittsburgh for the time being.

Castro ended the year with a .233/.299/.427 triple-slash, .315 wOBA, and 103 wRC+. Castro, who was known for his pop as a prospect, hit 11 home runs in 278 plate appearances and had a .192 isolated slugging percentage. But he lacked plate discipline, only having a 7.6% walk rate and 26.6% strikeout rate.

Castro turned the heat up once he was recalled in August. In his final 200 PAs, the infielder slashed .247/.310/.478 with a .342 wOBA and 121 wRC+. Castro's ISO of .231 was the 20th-best mark among batters during the home stretch of the season. While he struck out more often (27.5% K-rate), he walked at an increased 8.5% rate.

But Castro will have some questions regarding his defensive ability. He had -2 defensive runs saved and -3 outs above average at the keystone in less than 300 innings (236, to be exact). But the Pirates could help mitigate some of his defensive struggles and give Ji-Hwan Bae reps at second base late in games as a defensive replacement or give Castro the day off to work off the bench or as the designated hitter once a week.

Castro could be the middle-of-the-order bat the Pirates need out of second base. Suwisnki, Cruz, and Castro could all be 20+ home run threats in 2023. Not to mention Bryan Reynolds. The last time the Pirates had three players with 20+ home runs was 2016, when Andrew McCutchen, Gregory Polanco, and Jung-Ho Kang all hit 20+. The last time they had four players achieve that feat was 1999.

Johan Oviedo

An injury to JT Brubaker opened up a prime opportunity for Johan Oviedo to grab a rotation spot and now is his opportunity to run away with it. The Pirates acquired Oviedo last trade deadline when they sent left-handed veteran Jose Quintana to the St. Louis Cardinals for Oviedo and first base prospect Malcom Nunez. Oviedo played sparingly in St. Louis but now gets a chance at regular starts in 2023.

Oviedo was sent to Triple-A after the Pirates acquired him, as the Cards mostly utilized him as a reliever. After getting his workload up, the Pirates recalled the young right-hander made a great first impression. It was only 30.2 innings, but Oviedo worked to a 3.23 ERA, 3.47 FIP, and 1.27 WHIP. His 20.9% strikeout rate nor his 11.9% walk rate were all that impressive, but he only allowed a single home run and had an outstanding 54.5% ground ball rate.

Oviedo has the stuff to get his strikeout rate above average. Oviedo's fastball velocity jumped from 95.6 MPH to 96.5 MPH after going from the Cardinals' bullpen to the Pirates' rotation. His slider also saw an uptick in velocity from 84.9 MPH to 86.5 MPH. His slider, in particular, induced a ton of great results, and batters swung and missed at it over a third of the time. His curveball is a slept-on offering, which held opponents to a wOBA under .200 against it. In the small Spring Training sample size, he has a 27% strikeout rate against what has been Triple-A caliber opponents.

It's certainly nice to see Oviedo get the starting rotation spot he deserves. It's just unfortunate it had to come at the expense of JT Brubaker's health. Regardless, Oviedo wasn't ranked as a top-ten prospect in the Cardinals' system for no reason. The upward trend he set last season is another positive.