Pittsburgh Pirates: Estimating The Contracts For Top International Free Agents

The Pittsburgh Pirates need to be aggressive in player acquisition this off-season, and the international market could hold a handful of different targets. But how much could we see the top options sign for?

The Pittsburgh Pirates are more than likely going to be aggressive in acquiring players this off-season (or, at the very least, should be). Both the trade and free agent market should hold their fair share of potential targets for the Pirates to pursue, but one way they could go about bolstering and reinforcing the roster is through the international free agent market.

The World Baseball Classic brought attention to many top international players who may make the move to the United States and play in MLB. Some have already expressed their desire to play in the US as soon as 2024. But who are the top international targets the Pirates should go after, and what could they cost to sign?

Shota Imanaga

The Pirates need starting pitching in the worst way, and one left-handed starter who should be on the Pirates' radar is Shota Imanaga. Imanaga is one of Japan's best starting pitchers, and the veteran is looking to take his talents to the US. 

Imanga has pitched 159.2 innings for the Yokohama Bay Stars this year, working to an outstanding 2.66 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and a huge 7.83 K:BB ratio. Imanaga rocks a 3.8% walk rate but pairs that with a strikeout rate of just under 30% at 29.5%. That has led to such a great K:BB ratio. The only below-average number on his 2023 report card is his 1.02 HR/9, which is still manageable and not bad either.

Imanaga isn't an overpowering force on the mound but sits 92-95 MPH. But it has significant carry through the zone. It gives it the impression of going faster than it is. It was ranked as one of the nastiest fastballs in the WBC this past off-season. But don't sleep on his other offerings. Both his curveball and splitter were considered plus pitches by stuff+.

Some have estimated that Imanaga will make something similar to what Kodai Senga signed for with the NY Mets. Senga signed going into his age-30 campaign, the same age Imanaga will sign for next season. Senga and Imanaga also have comparable stats in Japan. Senga owned a 2.42 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 2.92 K:BB ratio. Senga inked a five-year/$75 million deal, coming to an AAV of $15 million. Yusei Kikuchi, a former left-handed pitching Japanese star, signed for $43 million over three seasons, reaching an AAV of $14.3 million. He also had comparable Japanese numbers with a 2.85 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 2.46 K:BB ratio. With that, I see Imanaga signing something like these two pitchers did. A 4-5 year deal worth $15 million each season seems about right for Imanaga.

Yuki Matsui

The Pirates have a solid foundation for a good, long-term bullpen with David Bednar, Colin Holderman, Carmen Mlodzinki, Dauri Moreta, and Ryan Bocuki. But the Pirates could certainly get more depth, especially another left-hander and one with experience closing games out. One option to pursue could be Yuki Matsui.

Matsui just turned 28 at the time of writing this. The southpaw pitched to a 1.57 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 5.54 K:BB ratio with the Rakuten Golden Eagles. Matsui has a 32.4% strikeout rate, as well as a 5.9% walk rate. He is also immune to the home run, as he has a 0.47 HR/9 rate. Of his six NBP seasons, he has an HR/9 of 0.5 or lower six times. The lefty transitioned to the bullpen after his age-18 campaign and hasn't looked back since. Matsui has saved a total of 236 games.

You'd think that someone like Matsui, a dominant closing pitcher, is an intimidating presence on the mound with hard stuff to back it up. But Matsui is just a 5'8", 170 pounds hurler who averages out around 92-95 MPH. He has a looping curveball as well as a splitter, but don't sleep on his four-seamer just because it's not a 97+ flamer. He's been a very effective pitcher at getting strikeouts with his finesse.

It's hard to make a good comp for Matsui. There's no good comparison as another high-leverage lefty out of the international market to compare him to. He's younger but pitches much differently than most high-leverage guys. But if I had to make an estimation, he signs something in the 3-4 year range worth $6-$8 million a season. On average, that's about how much a decent left-handed relief pitching makes a year, including Matt Moore, Brooks Raley, and Andrew Chafin made in 2023. However, since the market is thin with left-handed relief pitching, who have a recent track record of saving games, I could see Matsui approaching $10 million a year.

Kazuma Okamoto

Here is an option for the Pittsburgh Pirates to fix their first base hole now. Kazuma Okamoto is one of Japan's best sluggers. The corner infielder is posting career-best numbers in nearly every stat imaginable. Okamoto has mostly played third base throughout his career but has been a regular over at first base, as well as in the outfield corners at other times. 

Okamoto is slashing .278/.374/.585. His OBP and batting average are currently the second-best of his career, but his SLG% is by far the best, with a Grand-Canyon-sized gap between it and second best. Okamato has also topped his career high in home runs at 41. Okamoto has a respectable 18.9% strikeout rate but also has walked at a 12.2% pace. Okamoto has slugged at least 30 home runs each of the last five seasons. He is a power-threat through and through. His .307 isolated slugging percentage is well above his career average rate of .226. 

Okamoto has 752 games played at third base, the position he's manned most often throughout his career. But he also has 361 games at first base. He also sees time in the outfield and has 149 games played. Okamoto has more than enough experience at first base for a team to pursue him with the intent of making him an option there. He has split his time nearly evenly between first base and third base this season.

The comparison I am about to make is not going to sit well with Pirates fans. But if we are looking at what a potential contract for Okamoto would look like, you should turn to Yoshi Tsutsugo. In terms of NBP numbers, they are comparable. Tsutsugo slashed .285/.382/.528 with a 20.8% strikeout rate and 13.3% walk rate. Okamoto has hit .272/.357/.519 with a 10.6% walk rate and an 18.7% strikeout rate. Like Okamoto, Tsutsugo played all four infield and outfield corners in Japan.

Tsutsugo struggled in the United States, and aside from a good second half with the Pirates in 2021, he didn't do much in the Majors. Of course, you have to take it on a case-by-case basis. Just because one Japanese power hitter struggled in MLB doesn't mean all Japanese power hitters are going to struggle. It would be very narrow-minded to think that way.

But given similar production in Japan and the fact that Okamoto could sign going into the same age as Tsutsugo did in 2019-2020, what kind of contract could we be looking at? Tsutsugo signed a two-year/$12 million deal. If or when Okamoto gets posted, I think that's the kind of contract he will probably be looking at. 

Yariel Rodriguez

Yariel Rodriguez is looking to secure an MLB contract for the 2024 season. The right-hander has split his career between the Cuban League and Japan. Rodriguez did not pitch professionally in 2023 as he defected to the Dominican Republic. But Rodriguez is reportedly on the Pirate radar.

The last time Rodriguez pitched was in 2022 with the Chunichi Dragons. He pitched as a set-up man, working 54.2 innings and owning a 1.15 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 3.3 K:BB ratio. The most impressive part of Rodriguez's season was that he did not allow a single home run. He also had a quality 27.5% strikeout rate while rocking a decent 8.3% walk rate.

Rodriguez has mostly worked as a starting pitcher throughout his career, but the transition to the bullpen seemed to help him take a massive step forward, performance-wise. He was never bad as an SP, but his one season thus far as a reliever was far more dominant. The last time he started games semi-frequently was in 2021. 

During that year, Rodriguez tossed 94 innings, working to a 2.95 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and 2.1 K:BB ratio. Rodriguez struck out exactly a quarter of the opponents he faced and had a 0.95 HR/9 rate, but greatly struggled with walks. He had a 12.1% walk rate, which was a trend when he was a starting pitcher. Of course, anyone would take those numbers from a starter, even if the walks were a tad high.

But in Rodriguez's training and tryouts, he's looked outstanding. He has a five-pitch mix, all of which have good characteristics. Rodriguez averages out around 95-97 MPH with plus spin. His slider is pushing 3000 RPM, while his curveball is another high-spin offering. But Rodriguez is able to kill the spin on both his splitter and change-up, averaging under 2000 RPM on both off-speed offerings.

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Rodriguez is going into his age-27 season. It's going to be hard to estimate just how much Rodriguez will get signed for, as it's going to depend on how teams view him. If teams see him as a potential starting pitcher they can get on a multi-year deal, they'll sign him to one. If they see him as a good reliever who could lock down a high-leverage role, they'll pay him like one. In terms of years, he might look to ink a two or three year contract. But again, the AAV will depend on his future outlook.