Pittsburgh Pirates: Examining his Strong September Thus Far

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Miguel Andujar has done outstanding since the Pittsburgh Pirates recalled him at the start of September, but is his recent hot streak too good to be true?

The Pittsburgh Pirates recalled Miguel Andujar as part of their September call-ups. So far, it’s looked like a brilliant decision. Entering play on Thursday night, Andujar hit .333/.371/.606 through his first 35 plate appearances since getting promoted. Andujar then went 3-for-4 with a double and 3 RBIs on Thursday night. He already has six extra-base hits, including four doubles and two home runs. Andujar hasn’t walked very much, with just two bases on balls to his name in September, but he’s also only struck out four times.

Andujar has undoubtedly been one of the hottest hitters in September, but are we jumping the gun? Is Miguel Andujar’s recent hot streak the real deal? Or is his recent stretch just a mirage that’s too good to be true? Today, I want to make an argument for both sides and let readers decide to make their own opinion.

Why It Might Be Too Good To Be True

Andujar has done great, but we’re talking about less than 50 plate appearances. Does this stretch invalidate his first 33 plate appearances of the season in late April through mid-May, where he hit just .161/.212/.387 with a 54 wRC+? Or what about the 442 plate appearances where he had just a 67 wRC+ from 2019 through 2022?

Sure, the sample size during his first promotion at the start of the year is also very small. But it’s nearly the same amount of plate appearances. Anyone can look good or bad in less than a 50-plate appearance sample. Plus, it’s not the first time in baseball history, or even the Pirates’ recent history, that they had a guy go nuts in September, then falter the next season.

Do you remember Anthony Alford? Alford was an outfielder who did well after struggling in the first month of 2021 before returning down the stretch and posting great numbers in September. Through the last month and 85 plate appearances of the season, Alford batted .276/.353/.500 with a 126 wRC+.

Sure, one could argue that since Alford was let go in early May after missing most of the season up to that point, he never got a chance to prove whether this was the real deal or a fluke, but Alford has mostly played in Korea the last two seasons. His hot end to 2021 wasn’t enough for any other team to give him another shot.

Andujar barely walks, too. The rate of batters who are good hitters with a walk rate of around 5% are few and far between. Yes, there are some, but most are below average. Having a hitter in the line-up who avoids walks like the plague is a real concern.

In Defense of Andujar

Now, yes, Andujar’s recent hot streak is coming from a small sample size. But he’s looked like a different batter. Andujar is simply making better quality of contact. He has a 91.1 MPH exit velocity, 51.1% hard-hit rate, and 6.9% barrel rate. Compare that to his numbers in April and May of this season, and it’s a major difference.

When he was first given an opportunity, Andujar had a meager 86.4 MPH exit velocity and 26.9% hard-hit rate. His 11.3% barrel rate was the only noticeable downgrade to his recent numbers. However, his launch angle has gone from 0.9 degrees to 11.9 degrees, a whole 11-degree uptick. This is some of the most raw power Andujar has hit for since his standout 2018 rookie campaign when he finished 2nd in Rookie Of The Year voting behind Shohei Ohtani.

It’s also really hard to compare Andujar and Alford outside of just having a really good September. The first thing is that he never showed nearly the same amount of raw power compared to Andujar. Alford had just an 87.6 MPH exit velocity, 41.2% hard-hit rate, and a 7.0 degree launch angle during September 2021. Alford struck out a whole lot more often with a 29.4% strikeout rate, even though he had a respectable 8.2% walk rate. But even though Andujar takes far fewer walks, he has a significantly higher BB:K ratio compared to Alford’s September 2021 run.

Plus, while it’s as easy to knock Andujar for having such a poor walk rate, you have to credit him for not striking out. He’s gone down on K’s just four times, for an 11.4% strikeout rate. That’s an elite K%, especially given how often batters strike out anymore. Lots of contact plus lots of hard contact is a viable strategy.

One last thing to consider is his change in plate approach. He’s a lot more aggressive at the plate. He is swinging outside the strike zone a lot more frequently than he used to. But he’s also making a decent amount of contact even though he’s chasing outside the zone. Considering his raw power, being able to turn on pitches outside the zone is a noteworthy skill.

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