Pittsburgh Pirates: Five Best First Base Free Agent Targets

The Pittsburgh Pirates need help at first base, and these five free agents may be their best options on the free agent market

First base has been an issue for the Pittsburgh Pirates for decades now. The last Pirates’ first baseman with consecutive seasons with +2.0 fWAR or more was Jason Thompson back in 1982 and 1983. The position has been a carousel of players over the last two-plus decades, and that carousel continues to spin into 2024.

But the Pirates might be able to put a stop, or at least slow down the carousel this off-season. Their current first base duo if the season were to start tomorrow would be an Alfonso Rivas/Connor Joe platoon. There are far worse platoons out there, but this certainly isn’t the most confidence inspiring platoon either. 

Because of that, the Pirates will need to explore the market to look for a first base option for 2024. While this free agent class isn’t nearly as deep as some years, there are still some decent options to be had.

Number Five - Carlos Santana

The Pirates signed Carlos Santana last off-season to a low-cost one-year deal. Santana both respectable hitting numbers along with a strong glove at first base, a combination the Pirates haven’t had since the days of Kevin Young. Santana was then traded to the Milwaukee Brewers at the trade deadline where he continued to produce similar numbers.

Santana finished off his 14th big league season batting .240/.318/.429 with 23 dingers, a .323 wOBA, and 101 wRC+. Santana was one of the most league average batters in baseball. Regardless, it marked the 13th time Santana has had a wRC+ of at least 100, as well as the 12th straight season with a strikeout rate below 20% at 16.8%.

Santana, who has always been known as a solid defensive first baseman, is having arguably the best season of his career with the leather. He’s racked up +11 DRS, the most in his career while having +3 outs above average. There’s a chance Santana wins National League Gold Glove Award at first base, as he has the most DRS and tied for third in OAA in the National League.

But there are some red flags about Santana’s season. First is his walk rate. His 10.5% walk rate is still above league average, but the worst of his career by 2.6%. While Santana still went yard over 20 times, and for the eighth time in his career, his raw power is heading in the wrong direction. His 88.8 MPH exit velo may not be all that far away from his 89.7 career average, but his hard hit rate dropped to 36.2%, which is another career worst. Baseball Savant’s expected stats were also not fond of his production with a .236 xBA, .373 xSLG, and .306 xwOBA.

Still, if Santana were to replicate his 2023 numbers and provide similar defensive value, he’d be worth the contract. There is reason to be wary of him because of his age and worrisome underlying numbers, but I don’t think anyone would be all that upset of Santana were to return to the Pirates in 2024.

Number Four - Justin Turner

Justin Turner produced yet another quality season to his already long resume. After nine strong seasons spent with the LA Dodgers, Turner signed on with the Boston Red Sox to fill a 1B/DH role after years as a primary third baseman. Despite his advancing age, Turner was a good hitter yet again. 

In 626 plate appearances, Turner slashed .276/.345/.455 with a .346 wOBA, and 114 wRC+. Turner went yard 23 times, and also had 31 doubles, leading to a .179 isolated slugging percentage, which is around his career average. Turner’s 8.1% walk rate was a tad low for him, and the lowest he’s had since 2016. His 17.6% strikeout rate was also his worst since 2016, however, neither his strikeout rate nor his walk rate are bad in any sense of the word.

Turner had logged less than 300 innings at first base going into this year and hadn’t manned the position since 2016. But despite the lack of experience, Turner played the position well, racking up +3 defensive runs saved, posting a +2.1 UZR/150, and having zero outs above average. But while Turner played the position more frequently in 2023, he was primarily a designated hitter.

For those worried about his age affecting his power like it might be for Santana, don’t fret just yet. Turner had an 89.5 MPH exit velo and 39% hard-hit rate, both of which are right in line with his career average. Even though expected stats don’t reflect the same story as his surface numbers, he still registered an above average .260 xBA, .443 xSLG, and .336 xwOBA.

Turner would likely be higher on this list if it weren’t for a couple of factors. The first is his age. Turner may still be a productive hitter, but he will turn 39 next month. Turner also has a $13.4 million player option and $6.7 million buyout. It’s not a guarantee he turns this down. Still, in the event Turner does turn down his player option, I believe he could be a player to target. Something like a $10 million, one-year deal with another player option for a second year worth $13-14 would likely get it done.

Number Three - Brandon Belt

Brandon Belt spent the first 12 years of his Major League career with the San Francisco Giants. Instead of returning to San Francisco for a 13th season, Belt headed North of the border to the Toronto Blue Jays. Belt had a down season by his standard in 2022 but came back strong in 2023 with a big year for the Jays.

In 404 plate appearances, Belt slashed .254/.369/.490. He posted by far his best slugging percentage in any season where he had at least 400 plate appearances. Belt’s 15.1% walk rate is less than 1% shy of his career-best rate, which was set in 2016 at 15.9%. Belt went yard 19 times, the second most dingers he’s hit in his career. At the end of the year, Belt had a .396 wOBA, and 137 wRC+.

But there are some things to take note of. Belt struck out at an uncharacteristic 34.9% rate. His strikeout rate has steadily been climbing over the last few seasons but went from 27.2% to nearly 35%. Although Belt’s expected numbers were still solid, they weren’t nearly as good as his surface numbers. His .337 xwOBA, and .437 xSLG paint a less bright picture.

Belt split his time as the Jays’ first baseman and DH. He may not be the Gold Glove contender he was in his prime, but he can still get the job done with the glove at first. He had -2 DRS, but +2.6 UZR/150, and +1 out above average. 

Belt is probably best used as a strong-side platoon. 365 of his plate appearances were taken against opposite handed pitching this season. He hit .256/.375/.516 with a 146 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. But when facing a lefty, he only hit .235/.308/.265 with a 64 wRC+. Granted, the Jays tried to hide Belt against southpaws as much as possible, as he took less than 50 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers.

A Belt/Connor Joe platoon could give the Pirates good production. Joe had a 122 wRC+ against lefties last year. Belt showed he still has some stuff left in the tank. He may not be a long-term solution, but he has shown he’s still highly effective vs right-handed pitching, making him one of the best platoon options.

Number One - Rhys Hoskins

Rhys Hoskins is arguably the best first base option on the free agent market (assuming Cody Bellinger is considered an outfielder). Hoskins missed all of 2023 due to recovering from Tommy John surgery. However, despite his missing season, Hoskins has a long track record of being a consistently strong batter.

In his last season, Hoskins batted .246/.332/.462 with 30 dingers. Hoskins may have struck out about a quarter of the time (25.1% to be exact), he still had a 10.7% walk rate. Hoskins had a .345 wOBA, and 122 wRC+, which marks the fifth time in his career that he’s posted a wRC+ of at least 120. His lowest career wRC+ is 112, which was back in 2019. Hoskins is also a consistent power threat, having hit at least 27 home runs every year he’s played at least 100 games.

Hoskins is not much of a fielder, but 2022 was one of his better seasons with the leather. He had +3 DRS and a +0.8 UZR/150. Outs above average, however, did no like his glovework over at first base, pinning him at -6 OAA, and the worst number of his career thus far. Career wise, Hoskins has -7 DRS, -11 OAA, and a +1.3 UZR/150 while spending his time at first base.

However, despite his below-average defense at first base, you can’t deny his hitting prowess. Hoskins is always a threat to hit 30 home runs and 30 doubles while providing a league-average batting average and above-average OBP. There is a chance that Hoskins accepts a qualifying offer so he can rebuild some value before heading back into the free agent market, but seeing as 2024 will mark his age-31 campaign, he might be aiming for years over AAV.

Honorable Mentions

Josh Bell

Josh Bell is coming off a Josh Bell season. After having just a 96 wRC+ in the first half of 2023, he got hot in the second half of the season and had a 116 wRC+ down the line. Even though he has consistently had ups and downs throughout his career, 2023 still marks the sixth season he’s graded out as an above-average hitter per wRC+. But Bell is still a horrible defensive 1B. He had -5 DRS and -4 OAA, and that was after playing more games as a DH than 1B. Bell is also far from guaranteed to hit the open market given he has a $16.5 million player option.

C.J. Cron

C.J. Cron batted .268/.343/.496 with a .357 wOBA, and 112 wRC+ for the Colorado Rockies in 2021 and 2022. He also slugged 57 home runs while grading out as a positive with the glove (+8 DRS, 0 OAA). But the veteran struggled this past season, both with injuries and his performance, only appearing in 71 games and batting .248/.295/.434, and 82 wRC+. But he still had a solid .334 xwOBA and .470 xSLG. Cron is a potential rebound candidate for 2024.

Kazuma Okamoto

If Kazuma Okamoto was a near guarantee to come over from Japan, he’d be more than just an honorable mention. Okamato batted .278/.378/.585 this season with a career-best 41 home runs. Okamato struck out just 18.9% of the time with a 15.5% walk rate. Okamato would need to be posted, however, and that’s not a guaranteed to happen this off-season. However, if he were to have an opportunity to go Stateside, it’s something the Pirates should look deep into.

Donovan Solano

Donovan Solano is an unconventional option at first base. A more contact/OBP-focused hitter than power, Solano hit .282/.369/.391 with a 116 wRC+ through 450 plate appearances. While Solano ranked top ten among first basemen with at least 450 PAs in batting average and on-base percentage, he also had the sixth lowest slugging percentage. Still, this was the fifth season in a row Solano had hit at least .280 with a wRC+ of at least the league average. Plus his 8.9% walk rate was a career best.

Garrett Cooper

Garrett Cooper produced slightly below league average numbers in 2023, batting .251/.304/.419 with a 96 wRC+. However, from 2019 through 2022, Cooper was a .274/.350/.444 batter with a 115 wRC+. Cooper struck out 25.8% of the time during this stretch but off-set that with a quality 9.6% walk rate. Cooper is generally regarded as a solid defensive first baseman with +3 DRS and +8 OAA throughout his career.