Pittsburgh Pirates: Five Favorable Baseball Savant Statcast Comparisons

Baseball Savant gives players five different comparisons based on data collected from Statcast, so let's look at five favorable comparisons they make about Pirate players

If you've been around the baseball internet over the past decade, then you've probably visited Baseball Savant at least once. Statcast has been around since 2015, bringing a whole new way for fans and front office personnel alike to analyze players. This includes public data on a pitcher's spin rate, spin direction, spin efficiency, extension, and pitch movement, and a batter's sprint speed and arm strength. Both batters and pitchers also have data listed on Baseball Savant for their swing-and-miss data, including whiff rate and chase rate, as well as their ability to hit the ball hard/prevent hard contact (hard-hit rate, exit velocity, and barrel rate). There are plenty of other metrics to show how effective a pitch was/how good a player was against a certain pitch.

There are also a handful of different defensive statistics. The primary one is outs above average (OAA). However, there are also reaction time stats like catcher pop time and outfield jump. Along with catcher pop time, Savant also tracks catcher framing stats. They also measure arm strength.

On top of that, they've also been able to create metrics such as xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and xOBP, along with xERA and xwOBACON (expected weighted on-base average on contact). The 'x' in each statistic means 'expected', so xERA is expected ERA, and xBA is expected batting average, so on and so forth. These expected metrics are based on launch angle and exit velocity and attempt to create more accurate predictive measurements of how a player could perform in the future. 

One thing Baseball Savant includes is player comparisons. Player pages include five comparisons. For batters, they compare their batted ball profile, and for pitchers, they compare them based on their pitch movement and velocity and their batted ball profile. The Pittsburgh Pirates have a handful of favorable player comparisons by Baseball Savant, and today, I want to look at the most optimistic ones.

Luis Ortiz

Luis Ortiz made his debut late last season but looked excellent in the few starts he was given. Although he gave up eight earned runs in 16 innings, Ortiz struck out 17 while only allowing one home run. Plus, six of the eight earned runs he allowed were in his final outing of the season. 

This was after he had a 4.56 ERA, 4.40 FIP, and 1.14 WHIP in 124.1 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. He struck out 27.1% of the opponents he faced with a walk rate of just 7.5%. Sure, he had a mid-4s ERA, but much of that was due to bad flyball luck. Ortiz had a ground ball rate of 47.8%, but an HR/FB ratio of 17.4%, the 50th highest of all minor league pitchers with 80+ IP. Ortiz's overall batted ball numbers barely changed, so it's safe to say that his HR/9 will decrease going forward. That's especially true given that he is excellent at preventing hard contact (86.1 MPH exit velocity) and getting swings and misses (29.8% whiff rate).

Ortiz averaged out at 98.5 MPH with his fastball, with 16.1 inches of vertical movement and 14.1 inches of horizontal movement. His slider also was a strong pitch, hitting 87.7 MPH with 36.4 inches of vertical break and 4.5 inches of horizontal run. Then there was his change-up with 27.3 inches of drop and 14.9 inches of horizontal movement. It averaged out at 90.9 MPH. All three of his offerings had average or better movement.

Based on Baseball Savant's data, their five comparisons all come from pitchers from this past season and are only based on pitch velocity and movement (no comparisons based on batted ball profiles because of such a small sample size of batted balls). That includes Sandy Alcantara (2.28 ERA/2.99 FIP), Luis Castillo (2.99 ERA/3.07 FIP), Hunter Greene (4.44 ERA/4.37 FIP), Gerrit Cole (3.50 ERA/3.47 FIP), and Jordan Hicks (4.84 ERA/4.17 FIP). Alcantara needs no introduction after winning the 2022 Cy Young Award, and both Cole and Castillo put together excellent 2022 campaigns. After a rough start to his MLB career, Greene had just a 3.65 ERA/3.11 FIP from June onward. Jordan Hicks was by far the worst player among this group, but keep in mind he was used in a role he was unfamiliar with. Hicks started the year in the Cardinals' rotation but struggled horribly. He pitched much better when he came out of the bullpen.

Ortiz has ace potential for multiple reasons, but the player comparisons based on his stuff are very promising. You probably didn't need me to tell you that Ortiz's stuff is off the charts, and he throws the ball just as good as some of the sport's best pitchers, but the data also supports that claim.

Connor Joe

The Bucs acquired Connor Joe this past off-season to bolster their OF/1B depth and to serve as a platoon partner for Jack Suwinski. Joe was not great in 2022, batting just .238/.338/.359 with a .314 wOBA but 88 wRC+. Sure, Joe had a strong 11.8% walk rate and 20.8% strikeout rate, but his ISO clocked in at just .121. This was a massive drop from the .285/.379/.469 triple-slash, .366 wOBA, and 115 wRC+ he had in 2021. But Joe still hit left-handed pitching to the respectable tune of a .259/.349/.395 line, .330 wOBA, and 98 wRC+.

Joe also had a solid first half. He entered the all-star break with a .332 wOBA/102 wRC+ before faltering in the second half. But as stated earlier, he'll likely share one of the outfield spots with Jack Suwinski, as both can play off their strengths and cover for each other's weaknesses. Joe is solid against left-handed pitching, and Suwinski can crush RHP. But what kind of players does Baseball Savant compare Joe to?

The first two comparisons aren't all that inspiring. They include 2022 Jonathan India and Andrew Knizner. The 2021 Rookie Of The Year suffered a sophomore slump, registering just a .249/.327/.378 line and 95 wRC+. Knizner, meanwhile, was even worse at the dish, slashing .215/.305/.300 with a 79 wRC+. While two of the five comparisons aren't too awe-inspiring, the next three put Joe in a more positive light.

The third is 2021 Jeimer Candelario, who batted .271/.351/.443 with a 120 wRC+ and led the league with 42 doubles. The next comparison was 2022 Josh Rojas, coming in with a .269/.349/.391 slash and 108 wRC+. The final comparison is another Arizona Diamondback, this time in the form of 2022 Ketel Marte, slashing .240/.321/.407 with a 102 wRC+. Of the five comparisons, three posted league average or better numbers.

There's a good possibility Joe will be a league-average or better hitter in 2023. The Pirates will likely use him mostly against left-handed pitching in the outfield and at first base. The batted ball data paints a positive light for Joe heading into the 2023 campaign.

Rich Hill

Rich Hill was signed as a veteran anchor for the Pirate rotation going into this year. In 124.1 innings with the Boston Red Sox, the 43-year-old southpaw worked to a 4.27 ERA, 3.93 FIP, and 1.30 WHIP, which comes out to about league-average production. He had a 20.7% strikeout rate and 1.01 HR/9 but an outstanding 7% walk rate. Hill also had a decent June through October, posting a 4.01 ERA/3.59 FIP/3.78 xFIP.

Hill is the definition of a soft-tosser. He was in the bottom second percentile of fastball velocity at 88.5 MPH. But he still threw the pitch with well above-average vertical movement (16.4 IN) and horizontal movement (8.2 IN). Hill's curveball is still one of the best pitches in baseball, averaging out with a whopping 67.7 inches of drop and 17.8 inches of vertical break.

Though he only threw it around 71-72 MPH, he ranked top five in both average horizontal and vertical movement among all curveballs. His curveball was slow, but his slider was even slower at 69.2 MPH, but he still hit 56.5 inches of vertical break and 22.7 inches of horizontal run. Its speed didn't affect its effectiveness, as he still had a whiff rate above 30% (31.6%) and held opponents to a wOBA of just .280 with his slider.

Hill led the league in both slider horizontal and vertical movement. He used his cutter slightly more than his slider and almost exclusively against right-handed batters. It sat at 84.2 MPH with 29.6 inches of vertical drop and 1.9 inches of horizontal run. Finally, there's his changeup, which hit 82-83 MPH on the radar, with 33.3 inches of vertical/15.6 inches of horizontal movement. 

Hill is all about control and fines, and he makes it work, which is reflected in Baseball Savant's comparisons based on pitch velocity and movement. The first four comparisons come from the same player, that being Gio Gonzalez from 2016 through 2019. The former two-time All-Star pitched to the tune of a 3.82 ERA, 3.96 FIP, and 1.31 WHIP in that four-year stretch.

Gonzalez only struck out 21.6% of the opponents he faced in this time, with a 9.4% walk rate and 0.93 HR/9. However, he still had an above-average ERA (114 ERA+/89 ERA-) and FIP (93 FIP-). The fifth comparison is the late Tyler Skaggs in 2018. Skaggs was pretty solid that season, working to a 4.02 ERA (104 ERA+/95 ERA-), 3.62 FIP (85 FIP-), and 1.33 WHIP. He struck out more batters on average than either Gonzalez or Hill with a 24.2% strikeout rate, and also had a strong 7.5% walk rate. Plus, his 1.01 HR/9 was identical to Hill's 2022 rate.

Both velocity and movement already paint Hill in a positive light, but his batted ball data also give him a positive outlook. The first comp Savant has is 2018 Eduardo Rodriguez, who had a 3.82 ERA, 3.65 FIP, and 1.26 WHIP.

The second comparison is 2016 Brad Brach with a 2.05 ERA, 2.92 FIP, and 1.04 WHIP. This also happened to be the best year of Brach's career. The third comp is 2018, Amir Garrett, with a 4.29 ERA but 3.83 FIP and 1.29 WHIP. 2018 Ryan Tepera is the next player Savant compares batted ball profiles to who had a 3.62 ERA, 4.17 WHIP, and 1.22 WHIP. Finally, there's 2021 Griffin Canning with a 5.60 ERA, 5.48 FIP, and 1.49 WHIP.

Canning is by far the worst comparison Baseball Savant makes to Hill, but he is the only below-average one as well. Gonzalez, Skaggs, Rodriguez, Brach, Garrett, and Tepera all had at least an above-average ERA or above-average FIP. Few pitchers in Major League Baseball make an 87-88 MPH fastball and sub-70 MPH slider work, but Hill has found a way.

Carlos Santana

First base was a massive issue the Pittsburgh Pirates needed to fix this offseason. As stated earlier, Connor Joe will likely see some games at first base, but they also acquired what is likely to be the platoon as well. Part of that platoon is Carlos Santana, who only batted .202/.316/.376 with a .308 wOBA, and 102 wRC+ last year. It wasn't a great year for the first baseman, but there were still a handful of positives.

2022 marked the 11th season in a row Santana walked at least 13% of the time and struck out less than 20% of the time. He's mastered plate discipline throughout his long career. Santana still mashed left-handed pitching to the tune of a .265/.387/.402 line, .354 wOBA, and 134 wRC+. Santana was in the 75th percentile of exit velocity (90.7 MPH) and 76th percentile of hard-hit rate (44.9%). Of all Baseball Savant statistics, he was below average in just two: sprint speed (16th percentile) and arm strength (21st percentile). Plus, as a first baseman, speed and arm strength are the least of their concerns. He was also in the 59th+ percentile of all expected statistics.

Santana had a poor season but has arguably the best player comparisons of any player we'll look at today. The first player is 2022 Christian Walker, who batted .242/.327/.477 with a 122 wRC+. That's far from the best player.

The second player is Anthony Rizzo, coming in with an even better .224/.338/.480 line and 132 wRC+. 2015 Matt Holliday is the next player who hit .279/.394/.401 with a 125 wRC+. Now here's where things get interesting. The fourth player Baseball Savant compares Santana to is 2016 Josh Donaldson, the year he batted .284/.404/.549 with a 157 wRC+ and finished 4th in AL MVP voting. Finally, you have Yandy Diaz from 2022, coming in with a .296/.401/.423 line, and 146 wRC+.

If you average out all those numbers, that is a .265/.372/.466 batter with a 136 wRC+. It's not as if Santana has never posted similar numbers. In 2016-2017, Santana batted .259/.365/.477. But those are some very optimistic numbers, and it's unreasonable to expect Santana to replicate them. 

However, do keep in mind that Santana was one of the most shifted on batters in 2022 when he faced a right-handed pitcher (batted left-handed). 98.1% of his plate appearances as an left-handed batter were with a type of shift on. While that isn't to say that Santana is all of a sudden going to put up prime Josh Donaldson-like numbers, it's not unreasonable to expect him to post better numbers next season.

Ji-Man Choi

The other end of the first base platoon also gets favorable comparisons from Baseball Savant. Ji-Man Choi was acquired by the Bucs this past off-season from the Tampa Bay Rays. The first baseman is coming off a down year (for his standard) but certainly has some potential to rebound next season. Like Santana, he was also hurt by the shift.

In 419 plate appearances, Choi batted .233/.341/.388 with a .322 wOBA and 116 wRC+. Choi still registered above-average numbers, given his strong 13.8% walk rate and his slightly above-average .154 isolated slugging percentage. Choi struck out 29.4% of the time, but that was the only major blemish on his season. Choi is still a very powerful hitter who was in the 93rd percentile of exit velocity and 88th percentile of hard-hit rate.

Two of the five comparisons that Baseball Savant makes are 2018 and 2019 Yasmani Grandal. During those two seasons, Grandal batted .243/.366/.467 with a 123 wRC+. One of Grandal's former teammates, Max Muncy, is another player Savant compares Choi to, specifically his 2019 season. During that year, Muncy batted .251/.374/.515 with a 133 wRC+. Another comp they make is 2022 Austin Slater, who batted .264/.366/.408 with a 124 wRC+ that season. The worst player that Baseball Savant compares Choi to is 2018 Jackie Bradley Jr. when he slashed .234/.314/.403 with a 90 wRC+.

Even with JBJ's poor season mixed in there, the mean slash line and wRC+ between the five seasons and four players is .248/.355/.448 with a 118 wRC+. That triple slash is almost identical to what Choi did from 2018 through 2021 (.249/.354/.449).

Keep in mind that Choi was shifted on in about 84% of his plate appearances. He had just a .304 wOBA with the shift on vs. a .415 wOBA with no shift. It's reasonable to expect him to rebound to his 2018-2021 self. He may even out-perform that four-season stretch given he'll mostly face right-handed pitching.