Pittsburgh Pirates: Five Potential Rule 5 Draft Picks To Consider

Who are some of the best potential Rule 5 eligible prospects who the Pittsburgh Pirates may be able to take in this year's draft?

The Rule 5 Draft is a way for teams to ‘steal’ prospects from other teams. Minor leaguers with 4-5 years of service time (depending on the age they signed at) and not on their team’s 40-man roster are eligible to be selected. Most of the time, it’s a complete shot in the dark, with hidden gems appearing only every now and then.

The Pittsburgh Pirates will have the eighth overall pick in the Rule 5 Draft. The draft lottery does not affect the order in which the Rule 5 Draft takes place and is based on the traditional worst-to-first order in regular season records. While the Pirates won’t have as much free rein as they’ve had in previous seasons, they will still get a top-ten pick.

But who are some names they should consider taking if they decide to pick someone?

Austin Pope

The National League pennant winners, the Arizona Diamondbacks, left right-handed relief prospect Austin Pope open for the taking. Pope is coming off a relatively strong season for the D-Backs’ Double-A and Triple-A affiliates and has stuff that would play out of a Major League bullpen as soon as 2024.

Pope pitched a total of 65 innings, working to a 3.65 ERA, 3.60 FIP, and 1.38 WHIP. He had a strong 29.3% strikeout rate, along with a walk rate of only 8%. Pope also only allowed long balls at a 0.81-per-9 rate. However, some of these numbers are inflated by a .368 batting average on balls in play.

The thing that makes Austin Pope really stand out to me is his numbers in the Pacific Coast League. In 22 innings, he had a 2.45 ERA, 3.09 FIP, 29.2% striekout rate, 8.3% walk rate, and 0.41 HR/9. The league average ERA in the Pacific Coast League was 5.70. Walks were about as rare as chocolate on Halloween night, with the average walk rate being 12.3%. Home runs were also commonplace, with a 1.31 average HR/9.

Pope’s fastball sits around 94 MPH, with two breaking balls. That includes a slider and curveball. His slider comes in around the mid-80s, while his curveball is in the low-80s. Both have above-average spin, albeit not elite level.

Usually, I don’t take numbers in the PCL too seriously. It’s such an extremely hitter-friendly league, where having an ERA of 5.00 makes you a top-ten pitcher and an OPS of .850 makes a slightly above-average hitter, that it’s hard to credit any numbers. However, in extreme cases, like Pope’s case, where he has an ERA below 3.00, I think you need to at least give him a second look.

Justin Slaten

Justin Slaten is a pitching prospect from the Texas Rangers. A third-round pick in 2019, Slaten started his pro career as a starting pitcher; however, he posted an ERA over 6.00 and a WHIP above 1.50 in each of his first three pro seasons. But Slaten was moved to the bullpen full-time last season, and it paid dividends for him, at least performance-wise.

Slaten spent most of his season at the Rangers’ Double-A affiliate, where he pitched to a 3.16 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 51.1 innings. The right-hander struck out 37.5% of the batters he faced with a walk rate of only 7.9%. Slaten, however, had a mediocre 1.58 HR/9. But in his defense, Slaten had an HR/FB ratio of 23.7%. It was the third-highest HR/FB ratio among all Double-A pitchers and the 8th-highest ratio any Double-A pitcher has had over the last five minor league seasons. I doubt he will carry this over to next season. Slaten had a 3.95 FIP, but once adjusting for this insanely high HR/FB ratio, the right-hander had an xFIP of just 2.82.

His strong numbers at Double-A earned him a late-season promotion to Triple-A, where he tossed 8.1 innings, only allowed one earned run, and struck out ten batters while walking four. It was a small sample size, so don’t take it too seriously, but it gives us some pitch-tracking data to examine.

Slaten has good velocity, sitting 95-97 MPH and topping out around 98. On top of that, he has above-average spin at 2300-2400 RPM. This pitch can ride through the zone, unlike many others. His slider comes in around 83-95 MPH but with over 2500 RPM of spin. FanGraphs describes this pitch as a knee-buckler. His cutter is also a regularly used part of his arsenal, and it comes in around 87-90 MPH with 2350-2450 RPM on average.

The right-hander can generate above-average velocity with a relatively low-effort delivery. Standing at 6’4”, 222 pounds, Slaten has a strong build. His arm slot is an over-head delivery, so we aren’t looking at someone with an overly deceptive motion on the mound.

FanGraphs is very bullish on Slaten, ranking him as the Texas Rangers’ 19th-best prospect. Sure, all prospect rankings are subjective, but ranking top 20 on a major outlet like FanGraphs is nothing to scoff at. But do keep in mind that neither Baseball America nor MLB Pipeline put Slaten even in their top 30. He may be a top 20 prospect by FanGraphs’ analysis, but he is not a consensus top 20 Rangers prospect. Still, Slaten would be one of the better relief prospects in the Rule 5 draft.

Anthony Prato

Anthony Prato got off to a horrible start at Double-A. However, despite getting moved to the next level of the minor leagues, Prato took off for the Minnesota Twins’ Triple-A affiliate and was scorching hot for the rest of the season. The utility man is now Rule 5 draft eligible and could get selected based on his versatility and patience at the plate.

Prato opened the year by batting a mere .171/.305/.248 with a .277 wOBA and 58 wRC+. While he had a strong 12.8% walk rate and a respectable 22.4% strikeout rate, it was about the only positive to come out of Prato’s time at Double-A. He also had a sub-.100 isolated slugging percentage, clocking in at just 0.78.

The Twins still opted to promote Prato to Triple-A, where he flourished. Through his final 299 plate appearances of the season, Prato batted .302/.452/.539 with a .440 wOBA and 153 wRC+. Although his K% rose to 23.1%, his walk rate became even better, with a 19.7% walk rate. The power also started to come around, as he went yard ten times with 23 doubles and an ISO of .237.

Prato has consistently been a threat to reach base, both in his college career and throughout the minor leagues. He had a .401 OBP at the University of Connecticut with a 9.1% walk rate. Since debuting in 2019, Prato owns a .390 OBP with a 13.9% walk rate. He now has put up an OBP over .400 in two of his last three Minor League seasons.

His versatility alone may get clubs to at least kick the tires on Prato. Last year, he played at least 125 innings at third base, second base, shortstop, and left and right field combined. The only non-catcher/pitcher positions he hasn’t played at least semi-regularly are center field and first base. Even then, he has 38.2 innings logged at first base throughout his career.

At only 5’9” and 185 pounds, Prato is not projected as a power hitter. While he did hit for a good amount of pop at Triple-A, it was the International League where the league average HR/9 rate was 1.29, and the average slugging percentage clocked in at .438. It is a hitter-friendly league. But given Prato’s extreme eye at the plate, you’re talking about someone who may still have a .330-.340 OBP, even if he only bats .240. His ability to play as a super-sub all over the field also makes him an interesting Rule 5 candidate.

Ryan Fernandez

Ryan Fernandez was a 23rd-round pick in the 2018 draft by the Boston Red Sox. When Fernandez takes the mound, he can be a very sound right-handed reliever with good stuff. However, he does have an inconsistent health track record. Still, his stuff would play out of a Major League bullpen right now.

Fernandez opened the year with a 1.52 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 2.18 FIP in 23.2 innings for the Red Sox’s A-Ball and Double-A affiliates. He had a strong 35.2% strikeout rate, with a solid 8.8% walk rate while only allowing home runs at a 0.38-per-9 pace. Fernandez had a ground ball rate below 40% at Double-A but still had a 3.11 xFIP.

The right-handed reliever got sent to Triple-A, where the numbers aren’t as bad as they may seem. Fernandez owned an ERA over 6.00 at 6.16 with a 5.24 FIP. But he cut his walk rate down to 7.2%, and while his K% dropped significantly, it was still a solid 25.2% rate. Where Fernandez struggled was with home runs, as he had a 2.05 HR/9 rate. However, take his ERA, FIP, and WHIP with a grain of salt.

Fernandez had a .353 batting average on balls in play, compared to a much more sustainable .280 rate in his first 23.2 innings of the year. His home run to flyball ratio also went through the roof to 24.1%. His HR/FB ratio was the 19th highest among Triple-A pitchers with 30+ innings pitched.

Baseball America loves Fernandez, claiming that “Few available Rule 5 pitchers can match Fernandez’s stuff.” The righty sits in the mid-90s with his fastball, but the best weapon he has is his upper-80s gyro slider. He’ll also mix in a power-curveball and a cutter.

The 6’0”, 170 pounds right-hander brings his glove up and his arm down in his delivery before delivering the ball at a high three-quarters arm slot. Fernandez’s numbers at Triple-A are much better than they may seem, given he suffered from some poor defense and bad flyball luck. He’s definitely another arm that, like Slaten, is loved by a popular prospect outlet.