Pittsburgh Pirates: Four Remaining Free Agents To Consider
The Pirates should consider going after these four free agents.
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The Pittsburgh Pirates still have holes to patch on the roster, and these four free agents should be ones for them to consider in the second half of the off-season.
We are firmly into the second half of the off-season. It is approaching mid-January, but the Pittsburgh Pirates still have work to do before the start of Spring Training. Luckily for them, this off-season has been slower compared to the last few years. There are still some good free agents left on the market.
Heading into the home stretch of the off-season, the Pirates should become active now. Sure, it’s been frustrating, but it’s better they start doing something late than never. So, with that being said, who are some decent free agents that should be within their price range they should go after? (Note that does not mean I think the Pirates will go after all these guys, just ones I think should be on their radar)
Yariel Rodriguez
It seems like the Pirates really want Yariel Rodriguez. They have been heavily connected to Rodriguez all off-season, and it seems like the right-hander’s market is heating up. According to fellow staff writer Kody Duncan, the Pirates are in the lead for Rodriguez. That may suggest they’ve upped their pursuit efforts, as the Toronto Blue Jays were rumored to be the leading destination for Rodriguez at the start of January.
Rodriguez last pitched in 2022 for the Chunichi Dragons of the NBP. All 54.2 of his innings pitched were out of the bullpen, but he was outstanding, working to a 1.15 ERA, 3.33 K:BB ratio, and 0.92 WHIP. He struck out 27.5% of the batters he faced with an 8.3% walk rate. His walk rate was slightly below league average in the NBP that season. But he made up for it by allowing zero home runs.
But there are questions about how he would look as a starting pitcher. He hasn’t started games semi-regularly since 2021. While his career numbers as an SP aren’t bad, they aren’t good either. He’s consistently been good at limiting home runs but has an unimpressive strikeout and walk rates in seasons when he starts. For what it’s worth, Rodriguez started two games for Team Cuba in the World Baseball Classic in 2023. He struck out ten batters and allowed just two ERs in 7.1 innings, but he also walked six. That might seem like he was pulled because of his struggles, but Shohei Ohtani was the only pitcher to pitch over a whole game’s worth of innings.
Rodriguez held a showcase in October where he was averaging out in the mid-90s with his fastball. All of the other offerings he showed off had good spin as well. Rodriguez has a great fastball and slider, but his other offerings sat at an average at best level the last time he pitched professionally.
I think Rodriguez is the Pirates’ best option at this point in the off-season. His showcase was definitely promising, and even though it was only a bullpen session to show off his stuff, one could still theorize that he put in enough work in the last year to improve his stuff and become capable of starting games semi-regularly at the very least.
Mike Clevinger
Veteran right-hander Mike Clevinger signed a one-year deal with the Chicago White Sox last winter. Clevinger used the season to rebound after a mediocre 2022 campaign with the San Diego Padres. The right-hander put up his best numbers since coming off of Tommy John surgery in 2022 and stayed relatively healthy as well.
Clevinger tossed 131.1 innings, pitching to the tune of a 3.77 ERA, 4.28 FIP, and 1.23 WHIP. The right-hander’s 20.3% strikeout rate was pretty low for what it once was. In 2017-2019, he was consistently striking out well over a quarter of the batters he faced. But on the plus side, his 7.3% walk rate is the lowest he’s ever posted in a year, where he made 20+ starts. His 1.10 HR/9 is about average for his career and slightly better than the league average in 2023.
But Clevinger did not have great underlying numbers. He had a 5.15 xFIP, 4.81 SIERA, and 124 DRA- of 124 (compared to an ERA- of 87). Granted, Clevinger is a flyball pitcher who did not get very many strikeouts. So, let’s get some more positives about his potential future outlook in 2024.
Clevinger may have had a flyball rate of 50.3%, but he was decent at limiting hard contact. He was in the 70th+ percentile in exit velocity (88.1 MPH) and hard-hit rate (35.9%) while ranking in the 67th percentile of barrel rate at 7.2%. He averaged 94.6 MPH on his four-seam fastball, which is right around where he was sitting pre-Tommy John surgery.
Clevinger was also good after the all-star break with both a sub-4.00 ERA and FIP, clocking in at 3.67 and 3.75, respectively. His 4.07 K:BB ratio was the 25th highest ratio among pitchers with 60+ innings pitched. His BB% took a massive drop from 9.5% to just 5.1%. His 6% barrel rate also ranked 19th best in baseball, and he carried a sub-88 MPH exit velo (87.5).
Clevinger may not have great underlying numbers, but he does great at locating the ball and inducing weak contact. He looked back to his normal self (minus the strikeouts) in the second half of the 2023 campaign. I could see him getting a one-year deal with an option for a second season.
Hyun Jin Ryu
Hyun Jin Ryu is a former two-time Cy Young finalist, but it’s been a few years since Ryu has been a CYA-caliber starting pitcher. He missed most of 2022 and the first four months of the 2023 campaign. But he returned in August, and despite missing over a whole year, the veteran lefty ended the season on a positive note.
He pitched 52 innings, working to a 3.46 ERA, 4.91 FIP, and 1.29 WHIP. Ryu has never been a big strikeout pitcher, but his 17% strikeout rate is the lowest he’s posted in any season where he started at least ten games. On the plus side, he had an outstanding 6.3% walk rate, leading to an above-average 2.71 K:BB ratio. Ryu’s 1.56 HR/9 is high, but he was above average in exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate and had a 16.4% HR/FB ratio, which was over 4% higher than his career average.
For what it’s worth, Ryu had better ERA estimators than Clevinger. Ryu had a 4.41 xFIP, 4.69 SIERA, and a 113 DRA-. Ryu also had a similar exit velo (87.8 MPH), hard-hit rate (36.8%), and barrel rate (7.6%) to Clevinger. Of course, Ryu pitched 79.1 fewer innings than Clevinger did. The sample size between the two makes it difficult to compare directly. But I still think it’s at least worth mentioning.
Ryu feels like someone the Pirates would have an interest in. He’s a soft-tossing veteran lefty who is looking to rebound after pitching less than 100 innings over the last two years combined. That screams Ben Cherington. Ryu will likely command a one-year deal. 2024 will be his age-37 and season, and given that his most recent seasons have been injury-shortened, he probably will be less than $10 million.
Carlos Santana
The Pirates signed Carlos Santana last off-season and then traded him to the Milwaukee Brewers at the 2023 trade deadline. Santana was a solid batter, both for the Bucs and the Brewers. On top of that, he was one of the best defensive players at his position in ‘23, ending the year as a Gold Glove finalist.
Santana batted .240/.318/.429 with a .329 wOBA, and 101 wRC+ through 619 plate appearances. He smacked 23 home runs with a .189 isolated slugging percentage, making it the eighth time he has hit 20+ dingers. With a 10.5% walk rate and 16.8% strikeout rate, it also was the 12th straight season he had a walk rate of at least 10% and a strikeout rate below 20%. Santana was also a better hitter after the All-Star break, owning a 117 wRC+ through his final 271 plate appearances of the season.
Defensively, Santana racked up +11 defensive runs saved, which was the most by any other first baseman. Outs above average was a little less bullish at +3, which ranked 5th among all other 1Bs and far behind the leader, Christian Walker, at +12. But either way, he was a good defensive first baseman.
But Santana isn’t without his risks. He had just a 6.7% barrel rate last year, which was a 2.6% drop from 2022 and below his career average mark of 7.6%. His 88.8 MPH exit velocity was also a noticeable step down from 2022, and his 36.2% hard-hit rate was the worst of his career. Even though his walk rate was above average, it was another career-low rate for him. At 38 in early April, it’s not irrational to wonder how much he has left in the tank.
Santana signed for one year at $6.75 million. I could definitely see him re-signing for the exact same length at the same amount. Even if he only repeats his 2023 campaign, that’s totally worth the money. He was about a +2 WAR player last year, providing an average bat with some pop and good defense at first base.
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