Pittsburgh Pirates: Four Trade Targets Based On Winning Percentage Added

The Pittsburgh Pirates should keep an eye out for these four players on the trade market based on winning percentage added

Last week, we looked at a few free agents the Pittsburgh Pirates should go after based on winning percentage added, or WPA. The stat does precisely what it says; it shows how much a player contributed to their team’s chance of winning. It better shows how good a player was at coming through when it mattered the most. It is a cumulative stat and not one that should be used to predict future performance. But, in the end, you’re looking at players who were important to their team’s chances of winning.

The Pirates need to pursue players, both on the trade market and the free agent market. We’ve looked at many free agents since the off-season has begun. But today, we will shift over to the trade market, and based on WPA, what players could the Pirates keep in mind?

Joel Payamps - WPA: +3.01

Joel Payamps has silently been a very solid relief pitcher over the last three seasons, with a 143 ERA+ dating back to 2021. With the Milwaukee Brewers listening to offers on any and all veterans, Payamps may potentially be put on the trading block. The Pirates could certainly use another relief pitcher in the bullpen, and Payamps delivers just that.

Payamps had a career year in 2023, pitching 70.2 innings and working to a 2.55 ERA, 3.48 FIP, and 1.05 WHIP. The righty struck out 26.8% of opponents faced with a 5.9% walk rate, leading to an impressive 4.53 K:BB ratio. That was the 19th-highest K:BB ratio among all qualified relievers last year. He also posted an above-average 1.01 HR/9.

Along with striking out batters at an above-average rate, he’s also great at limiting hard contact. Payamps held batters to just an 87.8 MPH exit velocity (75th percentile), 33.5% hard-hit rate (84th percentile), and 4.8% barrel rate (91st percentile). His ground ball rate of 47.6% was also great, coming into the 76th percentile of pitchers.

There were just 11 relievers last season with 50+ IP and a +3 WPA. Payamps was one of them. He contributed more to the Brewers’ chances of winning than the likes of Yennier Cano, Jhoan Duran, Jordan Romano, and Bryan Abreu did for their respective teams.

Payamps comes with three years of control remaining via arbitration. He is only projected to make $1.7 million by MLB Trade Rumors this off-season. Payamps could be a much-needed bullpen anchor in a relatively young group. Along with being a proven veteran, he is also durable and threw just over 70 innings pitched last year.

Willi Castro - WPA: +1.73

The Minnesota Twins are looking to cut some payroll. While many have them moving Jorge Polanco or Max Kepler to do so, Willi Castro may also get some calls. Castro is a super-utility man who can play pretty much anywhere he needs to. He is also coming off a decent season with the bat.

The switch-hitter mostly played a part-time role, coming to the plate 409 times in 124 games played. However, he posted a respectable .257/.339/.411 slash line, .327 wOBA, and 109 wRC+. Castro struck out at a 24.2% rate, with an 8.3% walk rate. He also had a .157 isolated slugging percentage.

Most of his time was spent in the Twins’ outfield, where he had zero defensive runs saved and -2 outs above average. However, he has over 700 career innings logged at both second base and shortstop and also played 219 frames at the hot corner this year. While Castro isn’t elite at anything, he does a lot of things at an average level. He is a jack of all trades, master of none.

The only thing you could argue he does at a well above-average level is run the bases. He went 33-38 in stolen base attempts and was worth +6.4 base running runs. Castro was in the 82nd percentile of sprint speed as well.

Castro clocked in with a +1.73 WPA, which ranked in the top 50 among players with 200+ plate appearances. For a part-time utility man, that’s definitely good, if not impressive. A lot of that stems from his .999 OPS in high-leverage situations in 2023. He also batted over .300 with a .905 OPS in late and close games.

The only thing is Castro may be hard to pry from the Twins. Both Kepler and Polanco could get moved because they have one year of control remaining. Castro, on the other hand, has two more years left on his contract, both via arbitration. But if there’s any chance the Twins would listen to a deal involving Castro, the Pirates should at least consider it.

Bryce Miller - WPA: +0.83

The Seattle Mariners have an overload of pitching, while the Pirates have a bare-bones starting pitching staff. It’s a skeleton crew, basically, so a trade between the Pirates and Mariners lines up well. One of the many young pitchers the M’s may be willing to listen on offers for is Bryce Miller.

Miller had a relatively solid rookie season. In 131.1 innings, Miller pitched to a 4.35 ERA, 3.98 FIP, and 1.14 WHIP. His 22.2% strikeout rate and 1.23 HR/9 were right around league average, however he limited walks very well. His 4.9% BB% was the 8th lowest rate among arms with 130+ innings pitched last season.

The 25-year-old has a smorgasbord of pitches. He threw five offerings at least 5% of the time. His most used pitch was his fastball, a mid-90s offering with nearly 2600 RPM of spin on average. It only drops 11.8 inches, making it one of the best riding fastballs in the league last season.

Miller threw both a slider and sweeper. Of the two pitches, his traditional slider was better, holding opponents to a mere .244 wOBA. Both his sinker and his change-up held opponents to a sub-.300 wOBA as well. The sweeper happened to be the worst of his five offerings. He also threw a curveball on occasion, but less than 1% of the time.

Miller had the 5th highest WPA this season among rookie starters with 100+ IP. That surpassed fellow standout rookies like Logan Allen, J.P. France, and Grayson Rodriguez. Keep in mind he posted league-average/slightly above-league-average numbers despite skipping Triple-A entirely.

Miller is easily the boldest trade candidate on today's list. However, if the M's listen to offers regarding their young starters, the Pirates need to jump on the opportunity. It could be an easy, albeit maybe not cheap, way to add a decent starter.