Pittsburgh Pirates: Free Agent Wish List

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With a season coming to an end, I want to go over the free agents I think should be at the top of the Pittsburgh Pirates' list of players to go after.

The 2023 season has come to an end. The Pittsburgh Pirates had a roller coaster of a season with a lot of ups and downs. Either way, I personally am looking forward to next year, but the team should be somewhat active in the free agent market. Last year, they spent $30.375 million on Major League free agents, plus another $5-$7 million in trade acquisitions. In comparison to their previous off-season, they spent just $16.025 million. I think it’s a reasonable assumption they will spend somewhere in the $35-$40 million range this off-season.

The team still has some holes to fill. Some said holes could be filled by prospects, but it would greatly benefit the Pirates if they went out and signed a free agent or acquired someone via trade to solve the issue both quickly, effectively, and easily. Today, I want to go through my 2023-2024 off-season wishlist. I’ll try to be as reasonable as possible here.

The first thing I want to get out of the way is that I both want the Pirates to, and think they will, re-sign Andrew McCutchen. What Pirates fan doesn’t want the Pirates to re-sign him? He’s probably the very first thing on everyone’s wishlist. Because I think he’s such an obvious choice to be at the top of any Pirates’ free agent wishlist, I will choose to exclude him.

Jordan Montgomery

The Pirates have a lot of young, but talented starting pitching options for 2024. The Opening Day rotation will consist of some form of Mitch Keller, Johan Oviedo, Luis Ortiz, Andre Jackson, Roansy Contreras, Bailey Falter, and Quinn Priester. They should get some young reinforcements later on in the year, but adding a veteran who can provide both stability and solid innings is a must. If there’s any pitcher on the free agent market who can fill said role, it would be left-hander Jordan Montgomery.

Montgomery has pieced together his third straight quality season. In 188.2 innings, Monty owns a 3.20 ERA, 3.56 FIP, and 1.19 WHIP. Montgomery has a 21.4% strikeout rate but has combated that with a healthy 6.2% walk rate, and 0.86 HR/9. It is the third straight season in a row he has posted an ERA+ above 112, as well as the third straight year he’s started at least 31 games.

That might all seem to price him way out of the Pirates’ range, but there are some things that might work in the Pirates’ favor. Even though he has a career-best ERA, he’s not pitching all that much differently than he was in 2021-2022 when he had a (still quality) 3.65 ERA.

Montgomery had about the same walk rate (6.3%), a slightly higher srikeout rate (23.1%), and HR/9 (1.06) between the two seasons. His exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate have all stayed within 1% of each other over the last three seasons. His xFIP, SIERA, xERA, and DRA- have also had a close to net-zero change. It certainly helped he has a 2.79 ERA with the Texas Rangers, though the Rangers also rank top ten in defensive runs saved and outs above average.

So why do I have any hope of the Pirates signing Montgomery (besides the fact he’s pitching about the same as he always has)? He seems a little pricey, doesn’t he? I agree with that sentiment, but Ben Cherington loves his veteran left-handed pitchers. Each and every season since becoming the Pirates’ general manager, Cherington has signed at least one veteran left-handed starting pitcher. In 2020, he got Derek Holland. 2021 was Tyler Anderson. 2022 was when they signed Jose Quintana. This past year, it was Rich Hill.

Now granted, each of those guys were back-of-the-rotation, one-year rentals. The Pirates haven’t given out a multi-year contract to a starting pitcher since Ivan Nova in the 2016-2017 off-season, and that was a relatively low-cost deal. But if there was an off-season for the Pirates to go all-in on an MLB free agent starting pitcher, this is the year, and Jordan Montgomery is the guy.

Last year, the Pirates spent about $17 million between Hill, Vince Velasquez, and Austin Hedges. I could see them offering that kind of AAV to Montgomery. Will he accept it? It’s obviously not a guarantee, and I don’t know what Montgomery’s market will look like/other potential offerings will be either. But I am really hoping that the Pirates give 110% effort in signing a good pitcher.

David Robertson

The bullpen needs a good reliever who can be asked to take on high-leverage innings. David Bednar has the 9th inning on lockdown, and the likes of Colin Holderman, Ryan Borcuki, Dauri Moreta, and rookie Carmen Mlodzinski will be in the running for the set-up men roles. But it would certainly help if the Pirates got another reliable, higher-leverage reliever, especially since it doesn’t look like youngsters Jose Hernandez and Colin Selby looked like they needed a few more minutes in the oven this year.

If that’s the case, then the Pirates should look into right-hander David Robertson. Robertson is the oldest relief pitcher in baseball. At 38 years young (will turn 39 on April 9th), the veteran righty is still going strong, and looks to continue to be a force out of the bullpen going into the 2024 campaign, his 16th big league season.

Robertson pitched to a 2.05 ERA, 3.58 FIP, and 1.00 WHIP with the New York Mets. This included a 27.9% strikeout rate, 7.6% walk rate, and 1.02 HR/9. Robertson’s quality results got him attention on the trade market around the deadline and was shipped to the Miami Marlins, where it looks like he struggled, but just on the surface.

The right-hander’s numbers in Miami aren’t good looking, with a 5.06 ERA, and 1.59 WHIP, albeit a solid 3.49 FIP. He struck out more batters with a 30.9% strikeout rate and his HR/9 dipped to 0.84, but his walk rate shot up to 12.4%. However, a slightly deeper dive reveals that Robertson only really struggled in the month of August.

Robertson allowed ten earned runs in ten innings during the month of August. He allowed two home runs, as well as six walks during this month. However, after struggling horribly in August, as he pitched 10.1 more innings in September, allowing just two earned runs, no homers, walking six, but striking out 19. Robertson’s ERA on the season is 3.03, but his ERA outside of August is 1.95, and it’s also the only month Robertson’s ERA rose above 3.10.

While Robertson is aging, he’s aging like fine wine. He is throwing harder than he ever has before with more spin than in the past. Robertson sat 93.3 MPH with his cutter, the fastest he’s ever thrown it. His slider is sitting at 85 MPH with 2762 RPM, both of which are career bests. His curveball is the only pitch he didn’t post career-best metrics with, but in terms of spin and velo, it is the second-highest year in both regards.

The Pirates need to bring in at least one good higher-leverage relief pitcher. A late-inning combination of Bednar, Mlodzinski, Holderman, Borucki, and Lopez could be one of the best in the league, and the second coming of the Pirates’ Shark Tank. Robertson can handle both a 7th/8th inning set-up role, but also close games out when asked to.

Carlos Santana

The Pirates are more than familiar with Carlos Santana, as they signed him last year to a one-year, $6.75 million deal. Santana gave the Pirates what they expected: a good glove at first base with some pop and an overall league average bat. The Pirates then traded him to the division rival Milwaukee Brewers where he has continued to give similar production.

Overall on the year, Santana is slashing .240/.317/.426 with 22 home runs through 612 plate appearances. Santana has never been one to strike out much, and his 16.5% strikeout rate is right in line with his career average. His .185 isolated slugging percentage is the highest rate he’s posted since 2019 and just four ticks below his career average. With a .321 wOBA and 100 wRC+, Santana has been one of the closest to league average batters in baseball this season.

Sure, a league average hitting first baseman might not seem like much, but Santana may end up winning the National League Gold Glove at his position. His +11 defensive runs saved leads all players at his position. He is also second to Arizona Diamondbacks’ 1B Christian Walker, and tied with 2022 NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt, and 2023 MVP candidate Freddie Freeman in outs above average at +3.

But there are some red flags that fans should be aware of. The first is his raw power. He’s seen a decrease in this department, posting career lows in exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate. Because of the dip in batted ball quality, he’s also seen a dip in his xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG. While his 10.3% walk rate is still good, it’s the worst of his career by 3.1%. Santana will turn 38 years old in the first week of April, so keep that in mind.

Age is certainly a factor, and you wouldn’t be wrong for worrying if a 38-year-old first baseman would start hitting like a 38-year-old first baseman. But if Santana was willing to sign a similar deal again (something like one year for $5-7 million), then I wouldn’t be opposed to bringing him back. Santana is as consistent as they come.

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