Pittsburgh Pirates: Low-Risk/High-Reward Pitchers To Pursue Based On Stuff+

The Pittsburgh Pirates should look into these low-risk/high-reward pitchers as they ranked highly in the eyes of Stuff+

The Pittsburgh Pirates could definitely use some pitching depth, both in the starting rotation and in the bullpen. If the season were to start tomorrow, the team would go into the year with Mitch Keller, Marco Gonzales, Martin Perez, and some mix of Luis Ortiz, Roansy Contreras, Quinn Priester, Jackson Wolf, and Bailey Falter making up the 4th/5th rotation spots. The Pirates have a quality core in the bullpen, with David Bednar backed by Colin Holderman, Carmen Mlodzinski, Ryan Borucki, and Dauri Moreta. 

But there's no such thing as enough pitching depth. They could definitely use some guys they could stash at Triple-A or in the back of the bullpen in a low-leverage middle or long relief role. Instead of giving this sort of role to a fringe minor leaguer, why not go after a low-cost veteran with some potential? 

I want to examine a few underrated free agents based on Stuff+. Stuff+ is a relatively new statistic that takes the physical characteristics of a pitch, which, according to FanGraphs, includes velocity, spin, movement, and even release point, and puts it on a scale similar to wRC+, OPS+, or ERA+, where 100 is average.

Now, I am not saying that these guys should be at the top of the Pirates' list of free agents to go after. I still expect the Pirates to add one legit starting pitcher and one more reliever. But if the Pirates were to sign any of these arms to a low-cost one-year deal and start them out in a low-leverage role, I would not be opposed to it. Some might even have to settle for minor league deals, which would allow the Pirates to stash them at Triple-A.

Collin McHugh

Collin McHugh finished a two-year deal with the Atlanta Braves last season. McHugh's last season of the contract was not great. He pitched 58.2 innings, working to a 4.30 ERA and 1.57 WHIP, albeit a more promising 4.09 FIP. His 17.5% strikeout rate fell well below his typical strikeout rate, though he still had a solid 0.77 HR/9 and 8.2% walk rate.

Those were mediocre numbers, but in the two seasons prior, McHugh was an outstanding reliever, both for the Braves and the Tampa Bay Rays. In 133.1 innings, McHugh had a phenomenal 2.09 ERA, 2.43 FIP, and 0.94 WHIP. Only six relievers in 2021-2022 had a sub-2.50 ERA and WHIP below 1.00. McHugh was one of them. He also had a strikeout rate of 28.7%, a walk rate clocking in at 5%, and an HR/9 rate of 0.54.

McHugh was elite at limiting hard contact as well. He had an 86.7 MPH exit velocity and a hard hit rate of 30%. In both years, he ranked in the 87th percentile or higher of both stats. His 3.9% barrel rate was the 7th best among pitchers with 100+ innings pitched between the two years.

Now, according to Stuff+, even though McHugh's numbers took a downturn from 2022 to 2023, his stuff did not. He had a 110 Stuff+ rating in 2022 and 111 in 2023. McHugh did not see any significant change in velocity between his sweeper and cutter from '22 to '23. His spin rate also did not have any major difference. McHugh's sweeper averaged out at 43.5 inches of vertical movement, the 43rd highest on average in 2023. Meanwhile, his cutter sat at 25 inches of break, which was 1.9 inches more than average.

McHugh had posted a sub-3.00 ERA in three of his previous four seasons heading into 2023. He may be a little older at 37, but his stuff is as good as ever. Even if he never repeats the 1.55 ERA he posted with the Rays in 2021, I'd still take the odds of him having a quality year as a long reliever in 2024. I'd take 65 innings with a 3.50 or lower ERA out of the pen from McHugh, which is not completely unreasonable.

Jakob Junis

Jakob Junis has worked as a swingman out of the San Francisco Giants' staff for the last two seasons. His numbers are decent, but his underlying stuff is even better. This is another guy the Pirates would be smart about bringing in to fill out the bullpen as their go-to multi-inning guy or spot starter. 

Junis pitched 86 innings in 40 games and four starts. Over half of his games lasted two or more innings. Throughout the innings he pitched, Junis had a solid 3.87 ERA, 3.74 FIP, and 1.29 WHIP. This was a career year for Junis. He struck out 26.2% of the batters he faced, with a walk rate of just 5.7%. His 4.57 K:BB ratio was the 10th best among all pitchers with at least 60 innings pitched. Junis did struggle some with home runs with a 1.33 HR/9, but he was above average in exit velocity (88.5 MPH) and hard-hit rate (35.4%) with an unimpressive barrel rate (8.2%).

All the underlying numbers pointed to Junis having some room for improvement. The right-hander had a 3.66 xFIP, 3.36 SIERA, and an 85 DRA- (92 ERA-). Those are all slightly better than his 3.87 ERA he pitched to in 2023. He could definitely pitch to a 3.50 ERA next season.

Junis threw three pitches with regularity in 2023. That included his slider, sinker, and change-up. All had above-average vertical drop. But in terms of horizontal break, his slider was well above average at 13.1 inches. Junis ranked 25th in slider horizontal break. He does not throw hard, as his sinker averaged 93.7 MPH. Stuff+ put Junis at 113.

Junis is a good pitcher flying under the radar. There are no rumors about his market. Sure, a long-relief/spot-starter role is less glamorous than someone who consistently pitches the 8th/9th inning and is given the highest leverage innings out of the pen, but Junis pitched 86 innings last year with an above-average ERA.