Pittsburgh Pirates: MLB Trade Rumors Predicts 4 Top 50 Free Agent Signings

Left-Handed Pitcher

The next free agent one of the writers predicts the Pirates to land is LHP Sean Manaea. The lefty was used both out of the SF Giants’ rotation and bullpen, working to a 4.44 ERA but 3.90 FIP and 1.24 WHIP. Manaea struck out 25.7% of the batters he faced with an 8.4% walk rate and 1.06 HR/9 rate.

Manaea struggled out of the gates, and it took until May 22nd, until he had a scoreless outing. But once he got settled in, he was a quality arm with a 3.40 ERA, 3.04 FIP, and 1.10 WHIP. The lefty still carried a quality 25.8% strikeout rate but cut his walk rate to just 7.1% and his HR/9 below 1.00 to just 0.6. That made up the last 90 innings of his season.

Manaea had a highly productive fastball and changeup. He adopted a sweeper over his traditional slider, and it was a third highly effective pitch for him. Unsurprisingly, he started to pitch much better once he utilized his sweeper over his slider.

MLB Trade Rumors currently estimates that Manaea will sign for two years at $22 million, making his AAV $11 million a season. Manaea recently opted out of the final year of his deal, valued at $12.5 million. While this deal would see him sacrifice $1.5 million of his salary in 2024, it would earn him more in the long run. I could definitely see the Pirates going after Manaea. MLB Trade Rumors ranks the lefty as the 35th best free agent available.

Veteran Outfielder

The next one is a little more interesting, and that’s right fielder Jason Heyward. The 34-year-old was released from the final year of the ill-fated mega contract he had signed with the Chicago Cubs back in the 2015-2016 off-season. Heyward latched on with the LA Dodgers, where he would have his best season in nearly a decade.

In 377 plate appearances, Heyward batted .269/.340/.473 with 15 dingers. He struck out in just 17% of his plate appearances while carrying an above-average 9% walk rate. Heyward ended the season with a 121 wRC+, the first time he posted an above league average wRC+ since his 2015 season in St. Louis.

The Dodgers basically sheltered Heyward from left-handed pitching. Of the 377 times he came to the plate, only 28 of those plate appearances were against same-handed pitching. To his credit, he didn’t hit horribly against lefties in the small sample size and hit two home runs. But he’s clearly better against RHPs and hit .276/.347/.471 with a 123 wRC+ against opposite-handed pitching.

One thing that has stayed consistent with Heyward throughout all these years is his outstanding right-field defense. He played less than 700 innings out in right but still managed to rack up +5 defensive runs saved and outs above average. He still has one of the strongest outfield arms in the game, as his average outfield throwing velocity clocked in at 90.7 MPH and in the top 87th percentile. His 27.1 feet/second sprint speed was also about average.

Heyward is listed as the site’s 42nd best free agent currently on the market. It makes sense for the Pirates if they want Henry Davis to get more work behind the plate. At an estimated two-year/$16 million deal ($8 million AAV), Heyward could be a potential bargain for the Pirates if they went after him. $8 million a season for a strong-side platoon outfielder with a wRC+ around 120 and elite defense would be a steal.

First Base Help

The fourth and final free agent one of the writers predicts the Pirates to go after is veteran first baseman Brandon Belt, their 45th top free agent listed. After years on the West Coast with the San Francisco Giants, Belt took his talents North of the border for the Toronto Blue Jays.

To Belt’s credit, he hit very well, slashing .254/.369/.490 with a .369 wOBA and 138 wRC+. Belt went yard 19 times and drew a walk in 15.1% of his plate appearances, nearly matching his career-high walk rate of 15.9% set in 2016. Belt’s K% has gone up the last few seasons, but after sitting around 27% in 2021-2022, he saw it rise all the way to 34.9% this past year.

Like Heyward, most of Belt’s plate appearances were taken against right-handed pitching. Only 39 of his 381 trips to the dish were taken against lefties. But Belt was one of the most productive platoon-side hitters. His wRC+ of 146, OPS of .890, and wOBA of .381 ranked top 15 among the 203 batters in 2023 with at least 300 plate appearances against right-handed pitching.

Belt played most of his games as the Blue Jays’ designated hitter, and while he may no longer be the top-of-the-line defensive first baseman he was in his prime, he can still field the position with some grace. While DRS pinned him as a negative defender at just -2 runs, outs above average had him at +1, and UZR/150 clocked him at +2.6. He can hold his own at the position despite his advancing age.

But the contract seems a bit much for an older platoon first baseman. MLB Trade Rumors estimates Belt at one-year/$15 million. At that price, the Pirates may as well just go the extra mile and pursue Rhys Hoskins, who they have at two years/$36 million, which would only pay him $3 million more than Belt in 2024, based on their estimate. Belt has pondered retirement in the recent past, too, but if he can secure $15 million in 2024, I don’t see him hanging up the spikes just yet. Belt is still a good player, and while I wouldn’t be upset if the Pirates were to pursue him, I also think $15 million would be an overpay.

I would be totally okay if this ended up being the most significant acquisition the Pirates make this off-season. That adds two potential good starting pitchers, a decent right fielder, and a solid first baseman. I would like them to aim a little higher and maybe acquire at least one of the better starting pitchers available or see if the trade market holds a better option, but these are not bad options for the Pirates to pursue.