Pittsburgh Pirates: Moves The Team Could Make Within Their Budget to Improve

Sign Hyun Jin Ryu

Estimated 2024 Salary: $5 million

It really feels like Hyun Jin Ryu is the play at this point. Ben Cherington loves veteran lefties. From 2020-2023, he signed at least one each off-season, including Derek Holland, Tyler Anderson, Jose Quintana, and Rich Hill. He's acquired another one in Marco Gonzales via trade, but with another rotation spot still needing some repair, I don't think Cherington is done yet. Hyun Jin Ryu fits the mold of the kind of free agent starters he likes: veteran rebound lefty starting pitchers.

Ryu only pitched 52 innings last season, working to a 3.46 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, but a 4.69 FIP. The South Korean lefty has never been a strikeout machine, but his 17% strikeout rate is 4.5% lower than his career norm. However, his 6.3% walk rate is well above average and doesn't look out of place on his resume. Ryu struggled with home runs last season, allowing 1.56 per 9 innings. But there's a good chance Ryu can improve upon this.

He registered an 87.8 MPH exit velocity, 36.8% hard-hit rate, and 7.6% barrel rate. Ryu also had a 45.6% ground ball rate. All four statistics were considered above average to well above average. His 16.4% HR/FB ratio also suggests that he could improve in this department. His career ratio is only 12.2%, and his HR/FB ratio in the three seasons before 2023 was 13.7%.

For what it's worth, Ryu has underlying metrics comparable to Michael Wacha's. Ryu had a 4.46 xFIP, while Wacha had a 4.47 xFIP. Ryu had a 4.69 SIERA, while Wacha clocked in at 4.43. DRA- also said both veteran pitchers were similar, as Wacha had a 105 remark while Ryu came in at 114. Their hard-hit rates, exit velocities, and barrel rates were also similar. 

Wacha recently signed for $16 million a season, so why do I believe that Ryu would sign for that much less? Wacha is younger, as 2023 will only be his age-32 campaign, while Ryu is going into his age-37 season. Ryu has pitched more than 100 innings just once since the start of 2021 and underwent Tommy John surgery in 2022. Wacha has pitched at least 120 innings each of the last three years.

So, how did I come up with Ryu's estimated 2024 salary? I took the salaries of the Pirates' previous veteran lefty contracts (Holland, Anderson, Quintana, and Hill), added them up, and divided them to find the average salary between them. The average was about $3.4 million. I am rounding up because this year's pitching market seems much more expensive than when the Pirates signed any of those players. Ryu is comparable to Wade Miley, in terms of approach, age, and both being veteran left-handed starters, and he will make $7 million, but is coming off a much better season compared to Ryu.

Of course, that's not a fool-proof estimate, but it's the best estimate I can come up with as of right now. I think Ryu compares more closely to Quintana among those three, given his age and the situation he was in the year prior to signing with the Pirates. Both were older veterans coming off injury-plagued seasons.

Sign Andrew McCutchen

Estimated 2024 Salary: $5 million

The Pirates brought back Andrew McCutchen last off-season to rejoin a young squad. They should do this again this off-season. McCutchen is loved by fans and the young players alike. Bringing him back for another year wouldn't just be fanservice, either. He's still a productive Major League hitter, as well.

Cutch produced a .256/.378/.397 triple-slash, .345 wOBA, and 115 wRC+ through 473 plate appearances last year. His .378 on-base percentage was one of the highest remarks of his career. It was his highest OBP since 2015 in a season where he had at least 300 plate appearances. His 15.9% walk rate was also a career-best.

Despite entering his mid-late-30s, McCutchen's raw power is still there. He had an 89.6 MPH exit velocity (57th percentile) and a 44.6% hard-hit rate (70th percentile). That's the same hard-hit rate he had in 2015 when he finished 5th in National League MVP voting. But his 12.3-degree launch angle was a career-low and partially caused by an elbow injury he played through.

I think many are frustrated that a deal hasn't gotten done yet. It seems like talks between Cutch and the Pirates are moving in the right direction, and Jason Mackey reported that a deal could get done as early as next week. But why has it taken so long? This seems like a deal that should have gotten done the moment free agency opened up. 

So why haven't the Pirates signed Cutch yet? He seemed like their first off-season addition. Even though McCutchen is loved, I understand the Pirates' are cautious about going after McCutchen. He's 37 and just suffered his second major leg injury in the last five years. He tore his left ACL in 2019.

On top of that, he played through an elbow injury this year that severely diminished his power. At the end of June, Cutch had a .455 slugging percentage and .168 ISO. From that point forward, he slugged just .301 with a .095 ISO and missed a week after falling hard on his right elbow. Meanwhile, his launch angle went from 13.1 degrees to 10.9 degrees.

If the Pirates re-sign Andrew McCutchen, I don't see it being more or less than what he signed for in 2023. Last year, he signed a one-year contract at $5 million. Assuming he's healthy and is willing to sign that again, which I don't see why not, then that would bring the total spent thus far up to $10 million on the dot. The Pirates will hopefully get something done soon. The outlook on a McCutchen reunion looks optimistic, as Jason Mackey reported that the two sides could come to an agreement as early as this week.

Acquire Edward Cabrera

2024 Salary: $770,000

The Pirates need another starter, and Ryu alone isn't going to be enough. They should look on the trade market for another arm, and who better than the Miami Marlins, who are both looking for middle infield help and may be willing to part with one of their young pitchers? Among their pitchers who could be moved, I would love to see the Pirates go after Edward Cabrera, given he would be cheaper than either Trevor Rogers or Jesus Luzardo and has a high ceiling.

Cabrera was a solid arm for the Marlins' rotation, pitching 99.2 innings, and working to a 4.24 ERA, 4.43 FIP, and 1.44 WHIP. Cabrera had a strong 27.2% strikeout rate, but he also walked over 15% of the batters he faced, clocking in with a 15.2% walk rate. Cabrera may have walked a handful of batters, but the positives certainly outweighed the negatives of his 2023 campaign.

Along with getting a ton of strikeouts, Cabrera held opponents to just an 87.6 MPH exit velocity, 6.9% barrel rate, and 35% hard-hit rate. The worst among them was his barrel rate, which was still well above average, and sat in the 68th percentile of all pitchers. Cabrera mixed his soft-contact approach with a lot of ground balls and had a 54.3% ground ball rate.

Cabrera is not arbitration-eligible yet. He is still in the pre-arb phase of his contract. Spotrac currently has Cabrera's salary at $770,000. Under $1 million is what you'd typically expect from a player in the pre-arb phase of their contract. If the Pirates were to go through with a trade, like what I suggested here, where the Pirates would be giving up a young player already on the payroll, the net salary would be about the same. But for argument's sake, let's say that doesn't happen, and the Pirates don't send a young player on the active payroll. With Ryu and McCutchen, this would bring the total spent up to $10,770,000, or thereabout.

Sign Michael A. Taylor

Projected 2024 Salary: $4.75 million

The last and final player that would fit within our budget constraint is Michael A. Taylor. Taylor is coming off a relatively solid season with the Minnesota Twins as a platoon center fielder. His calling card is his center field defense, but he can also hit some home runs, two things that would greatly benefit the Pirates.

Last season, Taylor batted .220/.278/.442 with a .308 wOBA, and 96 wRC+. The only thing of value Taylor brought was power, as he hit 21 home runs and had a .223 isolated slugging percentage. But that came at the cost of a mediocre 6.7% walk rate and a strikeout rate of a hair over one-third (33.5%). But with his defensive prowess, you'll take that kind of hitting.

Taylor has major LH-RH splits. When he faced a right-hander this year, he only batted for a 75 wRC+. He still had a respectable .171 isolated slugging percentage, but that's about where the positives end for his production against right-handed pitchers. However, when he faced a left-hander, he had a 146 wRC+ and a .350 isolated slugging percentage.

Taylor nearly matched a career-high in barrel rate at 13.5%, with his single-season career best being 13.8%. His underlying numbers, like his expected BA, expected SLG%, and xwOBA, also suggest he didn't under or overperform his numbers last season.

Taylor racked up +5 defensive runs saved and +8 outs above average. This was a down year for him, believe it or not. Over the course of the last three seasons, Taylor has +43 DRS and +21 OAA. Taylor has the most DRS by a CF by ten runs and is tied with Harrison Bader for the most outs above average in this three-season span as well.

I think something the Pirates could take advantage of is offering Taylor a more regular role on a team that wants to compete next year. Most teams may see him as more of a platoon or 4th outfielder than a full-time regular. He has pretty drastic splits, and he shared center field with Joey Gallo and Willi Castro, both of whom have strong splits against RHP. A $4.75 million salary is a $250,000 uptick from his 2023 salary. It gives the Pirates an outfielder who can hit some home runs and deliver outstanding defense up the middle.

Conclusion

I wish the Pirates would go out, up the payroll to $110 million, and be aggressive from here on out for the rest of the off-season. I don't know a Pirate fan who wouldn't want to see that. But if this is truly the constraint that Ben Cherington has to work with, there are still moves he could make within this budget to improve the team in meaningful ways.

If the Pirates were to make these kinds of moves, then they would be spending about $15.27 million. If the Pirates include a player from their active roster in the Cabrera trade, then it's closer to $14.5-14.6 million. That is within the budget Bob Nutting is giving Cherington. Sure, it's not glamorous, but it's a solid off-season. It solves multiple needs the Pirates have right now.

Adding Ryu and Cabrera brings in two starting pitchers, including one who will have control for multiple more years. Re-signing Cutch gets you your DH/RF. Adding Michael A. Taylor will solidify your outfield defense and push Jack Suwinski to right field, where he may thrive, and platoon with Edward Olivares.