Pittsburgh Pirates: One Breakout Prospect to Watch at Each Position

Let's take a look at a potential breakout prospect for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2024 at each position on the diamond

Last season, the Pittsburgh Pirates saw a handful of their top prospects take another step forward. Most were pitching prospects like Jared Jones, Bubba Chandler, and Anthony Solometo breakout. However, there were some position players who broke out, including Lonnie White Jr. and Jack Brannigan. All five of them should climb Pirates prospect rankings at the start of next season and will be interesting to watch in 2024.

But the Pirates have a lot more, even younger prospects primed to take a leap forward in 2024, and that's exactly what I want to look at today. Each position has at least one Pirates prospect you could identify as a breakout prospect of some sort. Maybe it's their first full pro season, maybe their first look against pro pitching didn't go so well, or maybe they missed some time with injury. Either way, they'll be looking to become some of the Pirates' best prospects after 2024.

Catcher - Axiel Plaz

One of the Pirates' largest international signings in the 2021-2022 off-season was backstop Axiel Plaz, and he's far from our last international signing from that off-season. Plaz burst onto the scene in 2022, batting .382/.500/.706 through 86 plate appearances. With nearly as many walks (13) as strikeouts (16) and a wOBA well above .500 (.550), Plaz had a wRC+ of 209 in his brief pro debut.

But Plaz's second go around wasn't nearly as good. In 131 plate appearances, Plaz batted just .144/.359/.237 with a wRC+ of 81. Plaz walked even more often as his walk rate rose to 16%%, but his strikeout rate skyrocketed to 31.3%. After racking up 15 extra-base hits and having a .324 ISO in 2022, Plaz had just six extra base hits with an ISO below .100 at .093.

But Plaz is still young and has less than 300 career plate appearances, let alone more than 200 in a full season. Plaz has some power projection. He currently stands at 5'11"/165-LBS at just 18 years old. He could add some muscle to his frame. Plaz has also shown some defensive prowess behind the plate.

Plaz should open the year at the Pirates' Florida Complex League affiliate, but could find himself debuting at Bradenton if he looks anything like he did in 2022. Plaz doesn't turn 19 until the second week of August, so it's going to be a while until we see him in the Majors, but he definitely has some of the most potential of any Pirates catching prospect.

Honorable mention: Samuel Escuerdo, Miguel Sosa

Second Base - Mitch Jebb

The Pirates took Mitch Jebb with their second-round pick. The middle infielder was selected out of Michigan State, where he had some impressive numbers in his last college season. Through 241 plate appearances, Jebb slashed .338/.438/.495. Jebb only hit one home run but hustled out 15 doubles. He also had a higher walk rate (13.3%) than a strikeout rate (11.6%). This kind of approach carried over into Bradenton.

Jebb only stepped to the plate 153 times, but it was a promising sample size, as he batted .297/.382/.398 with a .373 wOBA and 116 wRC+. Jebb continued to walk at a high rate of 11.7% but cut his strikeout rate down to just 7.2%. Take it for what you will, and while it was a small sample size, Jebb was one of just 31 total minor leaguers with a K% below 10% in 150+ plate appearances. While his ISO was just .102, he still had a half-dozen two-baggers and went 11-12 in stolen base attempts.

Jebb's game is about making contact and running hard. He had a strikeout rate a touch under 10% at 9.9% throughout college. Jebb received the all-elusive 80-grade for his speed. MLB Pipeline (65) and Baseball America (60) are a little less bullish on his running, but either way, it's a plus-plus tool in his skillset. If he stays aggressive on the basepaths, he's a threat to swipe 30+ bags a season.

Jebb has more power than you may think. Sure, he may never be a 25+ home run bopper, but his bat speed helps him drive the gaps with some authority. With his double-plus speed, he's going to rack up a ton of doubles, and maybe even a decent amount of triples.

Jebb's feel for contact is better than most minor league batters. I think he could end up being Luis Arraez 2.0 but with speed. For the first four seasons of Arraez's career, he batted .314 while only having an 8.4% strikeout rate, but also had a respectable 8.7% walk rate. Some may also draw the comparison to former Pirate All-Star Adam Frazier. Sure, Frazier never struck out much, similar to Jebb, but he never drew more walks than strikeouts in the minor leagues other than in 2016.

Honorable Mention: Jeral Toledo

Shortstop - Yordany De Los Santos

The third and final player of the Pirates' 2021-2022 international class, Yordany De Los Santos was arguably the best prospect from this group. De Los Santos had a promising 2022 season at the Pirates' Dominican Summer League. He then started 2023 at the Florida Complex League, where he batted .328/.397/.464 with a 126 wRC+, seven walks, and 11 strikeouts through 78 plate appearances.

His great start at the FCL earned him a promotion to Bradenton, but he wasn't able to continue to play at that level. He saw 153 plate appearances while batting .183/.322/.256. His wOBA was below .300 at .299 while having a wRC+ of just 72. De Los Santos struck out far more often at 39.2% of the time, but on the plus side, he did walk in 14.4% of his PAs.

De Los Santos has shown plus raw power. His exit velocity numbers have looked good. But he's had some strikeout concerns. De Los Santos has had some issues lifting the ball as well. Although he's not a plus runner, he has been aggressive on the basepaths. He's attempted 43 stolen bases, being successful 37 times in 114 career games. De Los Santos has split his time at shortstop and third base. He has the arm strength to play on the left side of the infield, but the hot corner could be his long-term home.

De Los Santos turns 19 later this month, and he should open the year at Bradenton. De Los Santos has yet to play a full season, but he's definitely one of the Pirates' best infield prospects. He needs to cut down on strikeouts, but he has all of 2024 to do so. If he can show some improvement in that department and lift the ball more frequently, he could start to show off some of the raw power in action.

Third Base - Jhonny Severino

The Pirates acquired Jhonny Severino in the Carlos Santana trade. The infield prospect was the Milwaukee Brewers' top international signing from the same class that De Los Santos, Blanco Jr., and Plaz was from, three of which were ranked as top 30 international prospects by MLB Pipeline. The Brew Crew had offered Severino a $1.23 million signing bonus, and he's coming off a solid, albeit brief 2023 season.

Severino only had 63 plate appearances in 2023 for the Brewers' Arizona Complex League affiliate and the Pirate FCL team. However, he slashed .259/.302/.586. Severino hit five dingers while only striking out 11 times. Severino was extremely aggressive and only walked twice. But this, along with his .233 batting average on balls in play, would probably look better in a larger sample size than just 68 trips to the plate.

Severino has two plus tools. That's his raw power and arm strength. The infielder already stands at 6'1"/185 pounds. Like De Los Santos, his exit velocity numbers are outstanding, and he projects as a plus power hitter. His arm can make deep throws from third base as well. Severino has seen time at both shortstop and third base, however, is already a fringy runner.

He's another hitter with power potential, albeit some questions about his hit tool. But if he figures it out, you may be able to project another 30-home-run hitter. Severino is still a few years away from the big leagues, but an extended look in the DSL/FCL next season could be extremely beneficial for the slugging prospect.

Left Field - Juan Machado

Juan Machado had a very interesting 2023 campaign at the Pirate DSL affiliate. The outfielder is only entering his age-21 season, but won't turn 21 until early June. We may see him get a longer look at A-Ball Bradenton next year, and based on his 2023 numbers, could make a strong impact.

Machado batted .291/.483/.441 with a .464 wOBA, and 156 wRC+ in 178 plate appearances. Machado only hit two home runs with an isolated slugging percentage of .150. But he drew ten more walks than he had hits. His walk rate clocked in at 26.4%, which was the 4th highest among any minor leaguer with 170+ trips to the plate. His OBP was also the third-best among said batters. He also only had a 21.9% strikeout rate.

Machado was ultra-aggressive on the basepaths, attempting 36 stolen bases in 47 games. He was successful about 80.6% of the time, swiping a total of 29 extra bases. Either way, that's about one stolen base every 0.77 games. If he kept up that pace over the course of 150 games played, he would have attempted nearly 115 stolen bases, being successful 93 times.

Originally signed as an OF/2B, Machado mostly saw time in the outfield in 2023. He still saw a few games sprinkled in at second, as well as an inning at first base. Given his speed, he could play up the middle, but his range would probably be best used in the outfield grass.

Machado's strike zone discipline is outstanding. He has spent the last two seasons in the DSL and has the 3rd best walk rate and second best OBP. We shall see how that plays at every level. But if he can continue that pace at a full-season level, he'll get more attention than he's getting right now.

Center Field - Shalin Polanco

Shalin Polanco looked like he was on his way to a breakout season in 2023, but he fell into a slump in July and eventually fell on the injured list, playing his last game on July 19th. But Polanco showed some talent in what was an overall brief season. If he continues to hit anything like he did leading up to his injury, he'll be one of the Pirates' best breakout prospects in 2024.

Polanco got on a hot streak in mid-May that lasted through the first week of July, where he hit .301/.355/.536 with a .404 wOBA and 135 wRC+. Although he had a sub-par 7.7% walk rate and 26.6% strikeout rate, Polanco hit for a decent amount of pop, going yard eight times in 169 plate appearances and having an isolated slugging percentage of .235. He also showed off some base running prowess, swiping 13 bases in 15 attempts.

But after his hot streak, he had an ice-cold slump where he had just four hits in 29 plate appearances. Eventually, Polanco landed on the injured list with an injury, causing him to miss the last weeks of July and then all of August and September. While the season wasn't a complete waste, it was disappointing we couldn't see what a fully healthy Shalin could do over a full season.

Polanco's skillset is the definition of "jack of all trades, master of none." He doesn't have one plus tool, but everything sits around average to above average in the 50-55 range. Polanco's swing has some length to it, but he should develop it into an average tool. He's shown off good raw power and could be a 15-20 home run hitter in the future. Polanco has good enough speed to remain in center field, but if he slows down, he could move to an outfield corner. His arm is strong enough to play any of the three outfield spots, and if he sticks up the middle, he could be a solid defender.

Among all Pirates' position player prospects, Polanco could probably benefit the most from a full season. He only just turned 20 earlier this month, so he's still very young. But if Polanco impresses enough at Bradenton early this year, he could end the season at Greensboro or higher.

Right Field - Estuar Suero

Tell me if you heard this one before: Pirates send a veteran left-handed pitcher to a West Coast team for a tall and lanky but speedy teenage international prospect with massive potential. Comparing Estuar Suero to Oneil Cruz is extremely lazy, but one that makes sense, at least on paper. Suero was acquired from the San Diego Padres as part of the package for Ji-Man Choi and Rich Hill. Suero is young, but he could get an extended look in 2024.

Suero hasn't played much pro ball yet. He has just 394 plate appearances in two seasons, batting just .231/.335/.365 with a .342 wOBA and 87 wRC+. Of the few positives, he has a 12.4% walk rate. However, he's also struck out 28.7% of the time and isolated slugging percentage, clocking in at just .134. But it is still a small sample size, and he's yet to receive 250 plate appearances in any season.

Suero is a 6'5", 180-pound outfielder who uses his leverage to hit the ball a long way. He's a plus runner because he's able to take such long strides. Suero has shown a great feel for center field already, according to FanGraphs. He's already started to add some muscle to his frame, but if he can keep up his above-average speed, he could be a future option for the Pirates in center. But he has a strong enough arm to move to a corner if he must.

The sky's the limit for a prospect with Suero's build. He's a plus runner with plus power and the potential to be an above-average defensive center fielder. His swing is long, but he's still only 18 years old and won't turn 20 until late 2025. Still, he has the talent that could get him to Bradenton before then.

Right-Handed Pitcher - Jun-Seok Shim

The Pirates' top international pick last off-season was South Korean right-hander Jun-Seok Shim. Shim had the opportunity to head into the Korean Baseball Organization draft, where he was considered the best pitcher available. But instead, he decided to find a contract with a Major League Baseball club in the United States. Shim did not pitch much in 2023 as arm injuries limited him, but even a relatively healthy 2024 could shoot him up prospect boards next year.

In the few innings Shim pitched, he looked decent. In total, he only was able to log eight innings and faced 30 batters. But he struck out 13 with just three walks. He also only allowed one home run and three earned runs. In total, batters were able to put a ball in play 14 times against Shim but hit a ground ball half of the time.

Shim has a big fastball that sits mid/upper-90s. When the Pirates signed him, Shim showed off a four-seamer that could top out at 100 MPH. Shim throws two breaking balls. The better of the two is his curveball, a 12-6 looping bender. He also throws a slider with above-average potential, as well as a changeup that he has a feel for. Shim is a 6'4", 215-pound 19-year-old. Even though he's a young flamethrower, he isn't just firing without accuracy. He has good athleticism and a delivery on the lower-effort side.

I think if Shim gets 15-18 starts next year, you may see him on some top 100 prospect lists at the start of 2025. This is a young arm with the kind of talent that could move through the minor leagues at a fast pace.

Left-Handed Pitcher - Hunter Barco

Hunter Barco was the Bucs' second-round pick in 2022 out of the University of Florida. It took a while for Barco to see pro batters. The Pirates knew this as he had Tommy John surgery in May of 2022. Barco looked good in his shortened 2022 college season, owing a 2.50 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 6.27 K:BB ratio through 50.1 innings. But Barco seemingly picked up where he left off in the second half of 2023.

The Pirates were careful with Barco's workload as he only pitched 18.1 innings, but he only allowed seven earned runs, struck out 28, and only allowed six walks. Only one of his nine outings saw him dish out multiple free passes. His ground ball rate was great as well, sitting at 53.5%. Along with a sub-30% fly ball rate, it's no surprise that none of the batted balls Barco allowed left the park.

Unlike Shim, Barco sits in the low 90s with his fastest pitch. That's his sinkerball, which also has about 2350 RPM of spin. His slider is his best pitch, one with a significant amount of arm-side run to it. His change-up also looks like an above-average offering in the mid-80s. Barco throws from a low arm slot, and his wind-up gives his stuff some deceptive qualities. He's shown he can command his stuff very well.

Barco should pitch a mostly full season in 2024. The Pirates may put him on an innings limit, given he hasn't pitched more than 50 innings in a season since 2022. But if he can show he's healthy for a whole season, he could very well be the team's biggest breakout left-handed pitching prospect in 2024. The only reason I didn't put Michael Kennedy here is because Kennedy was healthy for all of 2023 while Barco was injured for the first half.

Honorable Mention: Michael Kennedy