Pittsburgh Pirates: Players Who Must Be on Their Radar at the MLB Winter Meetings

The Pittsburgh Pirates must keep these players on their acquisition radar as we head into the MLB Winter Meetings

Today is the first day of MLB’s Winter Meetings, and the Pittsburgh Pirates must be active here. So far, they’ve been pretty inactive. The only player they have signed to a major league deal is Ali Sanchez, who will presumably be in competition with Jason Delay as the second-string catcher to open the 2024 season. With the rest of the NL Central being active in some capacity, it’s been a frustrating time for Pirates fans.

Luckily, the rest of MLB hasn’t been as active as the NL Central (aside from the Pirates). Many of the top free agent and trade candidates are still on the market. Sure, while I wish the Pirates would go after one of the top acquisition candidates, I know it’s unlikely at best. But the Pirates need to walk away with at least two new players, whether that be via free agency or trade.

What I want to look at today is players the Pirates must have on their radar going into the Winter Meetings. They have to have these guys as players to pursue or acquire during the week. The first players we will look at are free agents, with the next group consisting of trade targets. There are a lot more players I want the Pirates to focus in on, but as of right now, these players should undoubtedly be on their radar.

Free Agents

Michael Wacha

The Pirates need starting pitching, badly; probably the most of any non-rebuilding team, if not more so than some rebuilding teams. One of the players I have wanted the Pirates to sign all offseason is former division rival Michael Wacha. Wacha is coming off his second consecutive quality campaign and looks to post his third good season in a row.

In 134.1 innings, Wacha worked to a 3.22 ERA, 3.89 FIP, and 1.16 WHIP. All of his peripherals were roughly league average or better. He had a 22.4% strikeout rate, a walk rate clocking in at 7.8%, and a HR/9 of 1.00. He was also in the 70th+ percentile of exit velocity (88.1 MPH), and hard hit rate (35.3%).

Seth Lugo

Seth Lugo was teammates with Wacha last year with the Padres. Lugo was given the chance to be a full-time starting pitcher last season with the Friars. For the first handful of seasons of his MLB career, Lugo worked as a multi-inning/swingman type pitcher. However, all 26 of his appearances this past season were out of the Padres’ starting rotation. Despite the change, Lugo pitched well.

In 146.1 innings, Lugo worked to the tune of a 3.57 ERA, 3.83 FIP, and 1.20 WHIP. Lugo’s peripherals were even better than Wacha’s. He clocked in with a 23.3% strikeout rate, a 6% walk rate, and an HR/9 of 1.17. Lugo wasn’t nearly as effective as Wacha at limiting hard contact. He was in just the 8th percentile of exit velocity (90.8 MPH), and the 13th percentile of hard hit rate (44.3%). But Lugo did have more promising underlying metrics than Wacha.

Sean Manaea

Our third NL West pitcher of the day, we have lefty Sean Manaea. Manaea did not get off to the best of starts with the SF Giants. Through his first 26.1 innings, Manaea owned a 7.96 ERA, 6.56 FIP, and 1.77 WHIP. While he struck out nearly a quarter of opponents with a 24.8% K-rate, he also dished out a walk at a 12.8% rate. However, more worrisome is that he had a HR/9 of 2.42.

But from mid-May onward, Manaea would settle down and end the season on a high note. His final 91.2 innings of the year saw him pitch to the tune of a 3.44 ERA, 3.15 FIP, and 1.09 WHIP. Manaea’s strikeout rate took a slight step forward to 25.8%, however his walk rate plummeted to 7%, and his HR/9 fell to just 0.69. Manaea worked out of the bullpen for the most part, but re-took a starting pitching role and pitched well, only allowing six earned runs, striking out 18, and only allowing two free passes in his final four starts.

Wade Miley

Ben Cherington has signed at least one veteran southpaw starting pitcher every year since he took over as the Pirates’ GM. With the massive hole in starting pitching depth, I don’t see why he would buck from this trend. If anything, Wade Miley fits this mould like Cinderella’s slipper and I’m surprised that the Pirates haven’t signed him yet.

Miley pitched 120.1 innings with a 3.14 ERA, 4.69 FIP, and 1.14 WHIP. Miley has never been a strikeout pitcher, though his 16.1% strikeout rate was the lowest of his career in any season he has pitched 50+ frames. However, he did post a quality 7.8% walk rate, and slightly above average 1.20 HR/9. Miley was also in the 83rd percentile of exit velocity (87.3 MPH), 93rd percentile of hard-hit rate (31.3%), and 54th percentile of barrel rate (7.6%).

Justin Turner

First base or second base must be resolved this winter. Jared Triolo can handle both positions, and Nick Gonzales or Liover Peguero could also fill in second base. But either position should be on the Pirate to-do list. A veteran first baseman I’d love to see the Pirates go after is Justin Turner. Turner signed for $8.3 million last season along with a buyout for $6.7 million, which he took.

Turner batted .276/.345/.455 with a .346 wOBA, and 114 wRC+ through 626 plate appearances. He went yard 23 times and posted an above-average .179 isolated slugging percentage. Turner has never once struck out more than 20% of the time in any season, and ‘23 was no different with a 17.6% strikeout rate. Even though his 8.1% walk rate was below average, it is still a respectable rate. I think Turner will end up with a similar deal: a low AAV with a high buyout.

Carlos Santana

The Pirates signed Carlos Santana last offseason to a one-year deal. Santana did pretty well for the Bucs, providing some value with the bat, and a phenomenal glove over at first base. He was then traded to the Milwaukee Brewers where he continued to be a solid line-up presence as well as a good defensive first baseman.

Santana’s bottom line consisted of a .240/.318/.429 triple-slash, a 10.5% walk rate, and 16.5% strikeout rate. This marks 12 straight seasons with a strikeout rate under 20% and a walk rate over 10%. He also went yard 23 times, the eighth time he has accomplished that feat in his career. All told he had a .323 wOBA and 101 wRC+, making him roughly league average with the bat. However with the glove, he racked up +11 defensive runs saved and +3 outs above average.

Jeimer Candelario

After a rough 2022 season, Jeimer Candelario was signed by the Washington Nationals to a low-cost one-year deal with the hopes he could rebound to his 2020-2021 form. Candelario did rebound and was a quality hitter for the Nats. At the trade deadline, he was then dealt to the Chicago Cubs, but is now a free agent.

Through 576 plate appearances, Candelario batted .251/.336/.471. He hit for a career-high rate of power with 22 home runs and a .220 ISO, both of which are career bests. He also had a 9.2% walk rate and 22% strikeout rate. All told, Candelario owned a .346 wOBA and 117 wRC+. Candelario would be a more long-term solution at first base than either of Santana or Turner. Turner mostly played third base last season but split his time between the infield corners with the Cubs in the second half, and has experience in previous seasons.

Trade Targets

Freddy Peralta

The Milwaukee Brewers are open to moving any and all veterans. That includes right-handed starter Freddy Peralta. If there was any potential trade target I’d want the Pirates to go all-in on, it would be Peralta, and there are at least two, very good reasons why. He is a quality starting pitcher who is affordably controlled for multiple years.

Last season, Peralta pitched in a career-high 165.2 innings and worked to a 3.86 ERA, 3.85 FIP, and a 1.12 WHIP. Peralta has consistently posted elite strikeout rates and ‘23 was no different with a 30.9% strikeout rate. However, he posted a career-low 7.9% walk rate. Peralta’s 1.41 HR/9 was a tad high, however, he was well above average at limiting hard contact with an 87.6 exit velocity, and his 16% HR/FB ratio indicates some regression to the mean. Peralta comes with very affordable team control through the 2026 season.

Max Kepler

If the Pirates are serious about giving Henry Davis more reps behind the plate, then they’ll need to get at least one outfielder. If the Pirates want to get bold with it, they should look into Minnesota Twins’ right fielder Max Kepler. The Twins are looking to shed some money, and Kepler’s name has been thrown through trade rumors this offseason.

Kepler batted .260/.332/.484 with a .348 wOBA, and 124 wRC+. Although his 21.4% strikeout rate and 9.2% walk rate were career-worst marks for him, they were still above average. He also went yard 24 times with an ISO of .224. Kepler provided plus defense in right field with +2 DRS and +4 OAA. On top of that, he had a 154 wRC+ in the second half of the 2023 season. Kepler is only controlled through 2024, however.

Alex Verdugo

A more low-key move to fill in the potential outfield void left by moving Davis behind the plate would be Boston Red Sox right fielder Alex Verdugo. Verdugo’s name has come up in rumors more than once this off-season. Given that 2024 will be the last year of his contract, Verdugo makes sense as a trade candidate.

Through 602 plate appearances, Verdugo batted .264/.324/.421 with a .322 wOBA, and 98 wRC+. He had a miniscule 15.4% strikeout rate with a walk rate clocking in at 7.5%. His 13 home runs also matched a career-high. Verdugo was a good defensive right fielder last year for the Red Sox with +9 DRS and +1 OAA at the position.

Marco Gonzales

Marco Gonzalez only pitched 50 innings last season, making his 5.22 ERA, 4.28 FIP, and 1.46 WHIP not fully reflective of how good he pitched. While Gonzales’ season as a whole was a let down as he didn’t throw a pitch after May, he has a strong history of being a quality, and durable starting pitcher, two things the Pirates really need right now.

From 2018 through 2022, Gonzales owned a 3.94 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 4.35 FIP. The lefty only struck out 17.7% of the batters he faced throughout this stretch of seasons, but his 5.9% walk rate was one of the best marks in baseball. But his 1.26 HR/9 was nothing to write home about. Gonzales made 131 starts and pitched 765.2 innings. Only 12 pitchers surpassed 760 frames in these five seasons. Seven, including Gonzales, had an ERA under 4.00.

Jorge Polanco

Along with Kepler, Jorge Polanco’s name has been thrown around in rumors. Polanco only played about half of the season. However, when he stepped to the batter's box, he was a quality hitter once again. This now marks five straight seasons where Polanco has had at least 300 plate appearances and a wRC+ above 110.

When everything was said and done, Polanco batted .255/.335/.454 with a .340 wOBA, and 119 wRC+. He could have been even better, as indicated by his .351 xwOBA. Polanco hit for good pop, hitting 14 home runs. He also posted a healthy 10.5% walk rate, but he also struck out at a career-high 25.7% rate. Polanco’s defense at the keystone is lackluster as he had +1 DRS, but -5 OAA.