Pittsburgh Pirates: Potentially Exploring a Mitch Keller Trade

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With Mitch Keller having just two more years of team control and the Pittsburgh Pirates being unlikely to contend this season, should they consider trading their top starting pitcher?

With the lackluster offseason that the Pittsburgh Pirates have had up to this date, the message from the front office and ownership of wanting to compete in 2024 seems to be far-fetched. There have been no real notable signings that are showing any sort of commitment to strong success in the 2024 season or the future besides waiting for top prospects in the organization to develop and have an impact on the club.

With all of that on the table, arguably the most valuable trade piece on the Pittsburgh Pirates Major League roster is Mitch Keller, and moving him could bring in the type of haul that could have the compete in 2024 message to be put on pause. I want to be clear in this piece that I do not want to see Keller traded and I think that he could be a front line starter for a playoff contending Pirates team in the future, but this offseason has been so dry for the Pirates, the looking at this direction is a possibility.

Before diving too deep into the specifics of a mock trade that I have built for this deal, I would like to note that this would be a trade happening before Opening Day. That is where he will have the most value without any risk.

Trading for Keller now would assure a team two full seasons of team control at a fairly cheap price and be able to negotiate a long-term agreement. However, I am also open to the idea of moving him towards the deadline if the Pirates are looking to be out of it by then. My only fear with that is that you are risking the chance of injury and poor performance which would derail any chance of getting the value you would almost assured to get from him before the season started.

Keller is coming off a career year making 32 starts and posting a 4.21 ERA and career-best 1.24 WHIP over 194.1 IP with 210 strikeouts. Keller was also one of two Pirates that made the 2023 NL All-Star team.

Keller being a reliable arm to take the ball every 5th day is prominent for any team that is trying to contend and at his best can be the no. 2 for a loaded staff. I think that the only thing that people view Keller in a negative light is the collapse he had later in the 2023 season. He just has not put together a full year of dominance. My only rebuttal to that is that having a guy take the ball every 5th day consistently and being a guy that every time he pitches you have a great chance to win is very valuable in today's game.

Teams that I see as landing spots to trade for Keller would be the Philadelphia Phillies, New York Yankees, and Baltimore Orioles. For this mock trade, I will be completing a deal with the Philadelphia Phillies as they are in the midst of a championship window and could desperately use quality arms in the middle of the rotation.

Mock Trade with the Philadelphia Phillies:

The Phillies would receive: SP Mitch Keller

The Pirates would receive: SP Mick Abel + OF Carlos De La Cruz + C Caleb Ricketts

Feel how you want to about the trade if you are a fan of either team, but this is what I believe to be the market for a starting pitcher of Keller's quality and with the 2 years of team control. Breaking down the trade, talks should not start without starting pitcher Mick Abel being a part of the deal.

Abel is ranked the 45th prospect in baseball according to mlb.com and would be the headline of the return that the Pirates are receiving. Abel started in 22 games last year for the Double-A affiliate Reading Fightin' Phils where he pitched to a 4.14 ERA with 126 strikeouts over 108.2 IP and an opponent batting average of .188. Abel is a big right-handed pitcher standing at 6'5'' and has a fastball that can eclipse in the upper 90s. Abel would be on the same track as Pirates top prospect RHP Paul Skenes and the two could amount to be top of line starters for the club in the future.

Outfielder Carlos De La Cruz is a super fascinating prospect in this deal. The Phillies 6th ranked prospect according to mlb.com, stands at a towering 6'8'' and has the power potential that the Pirates are lacking in their farm system. Cruz had a full season in AA in 2023 and hit for a .259 AVG with a .344 OBP, .798 OPS, and with 24 home runs. The main concern with De La Cruz's offensive game is his high strikeout rate (31.4% in 2023), but the offensive upside the 24-year-old could bring to the organization.

Catcher Caleb Ricketts rounds up the trade as more of a developmental prospect but brings solid depth at the catcher position in the organization. The number 15 prospect in the Phillies organization showed through three levels of baseball last season (ROK, A, A+) a consistently good feel for the strike zone and putting a lot of balls in play. The defense needs to be further developed, but catching depth is something that any club will never refuse to have.

Overall, I think this would be a deal that the Pirates would have to heavily consider and for a team like the Phillies, attacking the championship window that they have open now, this could bolster and strengthen their roster. Getting more high quality starting pitching in the organization is never a bad thing and the future of the Pirates rotation would project to be very strong with this deal made.

How the Pirates would pivot with their rotation if they moved Keller before the season is still up in the air. Signing at least 2 or 3 more arms would almost be necessary and maybe even trading for an arm, I hope the Pirates can build something with Mitch here because I do believe that he is a front line guy and organizations take years to get front line starters on their team, especially the Pittsburgh Pirates. Get an extension done and build a roster ready to compete!

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