Pittsburgh Pirates: Previewing the Team's Infield

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a multitude of young infielders who should take the field this season for the team. It could end up being one of their strengths.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are inching closer and closer to contending. Next year will be a pivotal year in the rebuild. With a farm system that has prospects banging on the major league door and the team bringing in a handful of veterans to complement the youngsters, there's a lot to look forward to in Pittsburgh baseball over the next few seasons.

One of the potential bright spots of the Pirates' future is their infield. They have plenty of talented young players coming up the pipeline and many very talented major leaguers looking to take a step forward next season. So with that being said, let's preview the Pirates' 2023 infield.

Catcher

The opening day catching situation does not look great, at least offensively. The Pirates signed Austin Hedges to a one-year deal, and he's coming off a historically terrible season at the plate. In 338 plate appearances, Hedges slashed just .163/.241/.248 with a .225 wOBA, adding up to a wRC+ of just 42. Since the year of the pitcher in 1968, Hedges' '22 is the 14th worst hitting season per wRC+ for a catcher (min. 300 plate appearances). He also owns the 11th worst offensive catching season with a 40 wRC+ in '21. His backup option is currently projected to be Tyler Heineman, who had just a 57 wRC+ last year. Another potential option is Jason Delay, who also had a poor 53 wRC+ in '22.

However, Hedges isn't here for his offense. Defensively, the Pirates are set behind the plate. He's an outstanding defender with +75 career defensive runs saved and +64.7 framing runs. Last year was actually a down year for him, but he still registered +8 DRS and +4.4 framing runs. Heineman was also strong defensively, with +5 DRS and +4.8 framing runs in less than 500 innings caught, and Delay had +2 DRS/+3.5 FRM in just 436 frames. Plus, Hedges only projects as the Bucs' primary catcher for part of the season.

He and Heineman are only here to keep the seat warm from Endy Rodriguez, who has done nothing but hit since arriving to the Bucs. Last year, the switch-hitting catcher batted .323/.407/.590 with a .434 wOBA and 166 wRC+. Rodriguez has always been praised for his plate discipline and posted yet another quality 11.3% walk rate and 19% strikeout rate, marking the fourth season in a row he's walked more than 10% of the time and struck out in less than 20% of his plate appearances. Rodriguez also had video game-like numbers in the second half of the year, with a 1.228 OPS, .516 wOBA, and 221 wRC+ after the all-star break.

On top of that, Rodriguez does fine behind the dish. He can play first base and left field, and he even started to see some games at second base. But catcher is his home, at least until Henry Davis arrives. That could cause some questions down the line, but that's only a good problem to have. Davis batted .264/.380/.472 last year with a 136 wRC+. Known for his power, Davis had a healthy .208 isolated slugging percentage last season. It was an extremely odd season for the former number-one overall pick, as he was plunked 20 times in just 255 plate appearances. Those HBPs caused the injuries that limited Davis to less than 300 plate appearances.

Davis will likely get a call later in the year, given he only made it to Double-A last year and struggled in only the 31 games he played there. Rodriguez, on the other hand, made it to Triple-A. While he only played six games there, he had ten hits, including a home run, in 23 plate appearances. He's only gotten better as well, as his wRC+ at each level since arriving at the Pirates goes as follows: 140 (Bradenton), 151 (Greensboro), 199 (Altoona), and 208 (Indianapolis).

First Base

The Pirates will open the year with a veteran platoon of Carlos Santana and Ji-Man Choi. Choi has good career splits vs. RHP, while Santana has good career splits when he faces LHP. Both were also two of the most shifted on batters in 2022 and were well above average when it came to hitting for raw power. Choi batted .233/.341/.388 with a .322 wOBA, and 115 wRC+.

Although unimpressive numbers for the South Korean first baseman's standards, he played through a shoulder injury in the second half, as he entered the All-Star break with a 145 wRC+. He had surgery to repair the issue this off-season and seems to be back at full strength and ready to play. He was even ready to gear up for South Korea in the Baseball World Classic, but the Pirates barred him from doing so, and while Choi disagreed with the Pirates' decision, it was an understandable move on the Pirates' part. Either way, Choi is a solid part of a 1B duo.

Santana, on the other hand, had a .202/.316/.376 line, .308 wOBA, and 102 wRC+. Santana continued to hit for decent pop, crushing 19 home runs in 506 plate appearances with a .174 ISO while maintaining his outstanding plate discipline. With a 14% walk rate and 17.4% strikeout rate, it was the 11th season in a row the veteran infielder had a walk rate above 13% and a strikeout rate below 19%. Santana had a .352 xwOBA and was still crushing the baseball. He registered a 90.7 MPH exit velocity, 44.9% hard-hit rate, and 9.3% barrel rate. Given the new shift rules for 2023, you could see him excel as a batter.

Both Santana and Choi were solid defensive first basemen in 2022 as well. Santana has always graded out as a positive defender at first. This year, he had +3 defensive runs saved, a +2.1 UZR/150, and +3 outs above average. Choi meanwhile had a career season with the leather, posting a career-best UZR/150 (+2.8) and outs above average total at +2.

The Pirates will also have Malcom Nunez waiting in the wings at Triple-A. Nunez, who was acquired at the trade deadline, had a very good run with the Pirates' Double-A and Triple-A affiliates at the end of the year. In 143 plate appearances, Nunez batted .280/.385/.475 with a .378 wOBA and 134 wRC+. He had a solid 22.4% strikeout rate, but he excelled at drawing walks with a 14.7% BB%. He also performed well for the St. Louis Cardinals' Double-A affiliate and had a .913 OPS, .396 wOBA, and 136 wRC+ from June onward. There are also some reports that Nunez has worked on his defense, both at first base and third base, and it looks like he could be a capable defender on the infield corners.

Second Base

Rodolfo Castro will open the year as the Pirates' second baseman. Castro secured the keystone in the second half of last year, specifically after the Bucs recalled him in early August. Castro ended the season on a very high note, batting .251/.311/.486 from August 10th through the last game of the year. Castro had a roughly average 8.2% walk rate along with a robust .235 isolated slugging percentage in 196 plate appearances. Among players with 180+ trips to the dish in this stretch, he was tied with Jose Ramirez and Christian Walker in ISO. The only red flag in Castro's offense was his 28.1% K%, but overall, he had a .343 wOBA and 121 wRC+.

As a defensive second baseman, he's not great, to say the least. The young infielder has never been known for his glovework, and last year he had -2 defensive runs saved, a -9.2 UZR/150, and -3 outs above average in just 236 innings up the middle. His best position defensively last year was third base, but he's not going to push Ke'Bryan Hayes anywhere anytime soon.

Even though Castro had a good season overall, he could still be overtaken by what I consider the Pirates' most underappreciated prospect, Nick Gonzales. Last year, Gonzales batted .263/.383/.429. Gonzales hit for decent pop with a .166 isolated slugging percentage, and he drew walks at a 13.6% clip. However, the downside is he struck out 28.5% of the time. While his strikeout rate was unimpressive, he still had a quality .365 wOBA, and 127 wRC+/

While his strikeout rate isn't good, it's explainable. Gonzales has gotten off to a slow start in each of the last two seasons. In 2022, he had just a .180/.324/.292 line and 80 wRC+ through May 10th. During this time, he struck out 37% of the time. After May 10th, he hit .306/.411/.506 with a 151 wRC+ and a much more manageable 24.2% K-rate. That still needs improvement, but Gonzales missed all of June and July. When he returned to baseball in early August, he would only strike out 22.7% of the time from there on out. He cut his strikeout rate even further to 20.7% through the final month of the minor league season.

Gonzales isn't considered the next Bill Mazeroski when it comes to fielding, but he holds his own at the keystone. He's also seen time at shortstop at Altoona and third base in the Arizona Fall League, but second base is his home. He may only see time at shortstop or third base if there is an injury and he's forced to play the position.

Shortstop

Oneil Cruz has shortstop on lockdown. The talented and towering 6'7" shortstop batted .233/.294/.450 through 361 plate appearances. Cruz hit 17 home runs, owning a .218 isolated slugging percentage. But his plate discipline was lackluster, with a 7.8% walk rate and 34.9% strikeout rate. Still, he had a .320 wOBA and 106 wRC+, coming in as an above-average batter. However, he did end the year on a hot streak.

From August 20th through the end of the season, Cruz batted .275/.352/.523 with a .377 wOBA and 145 wRC+. Cruz walked more often and struck out less. He upped his BB% to 10.2%, compared to just 5.7% when he entered this hot streak, and cut his K% down to just 31.7% after striking out 37.6% of the time in his first many games. He even started to make more loud contact, upping his average exit velocity from 90.9 MPH to 93.2 MPH, which was the seventh best in baseball during this time (min. 150 PAs).

Cruz did outstanding in this home stretch, but this was more than just a hot streak. The most important thing he was doing was adjusting. The towering shortstop had a swinging strike rate of 11.3%, which was nearly the exact league average rate of 11.2% and much better than the 15.3% rate he had before this hot streak. Cruz also cut his out-of-zone swing rate to just 27% (league average was 32.6%), and while his O-contact rate was still below average at 51.7%, it was still a major improvement from the 48.3% rate he had prior to his adjustments. Overall, he was just making more contact, raising his contact rate from 63.6% to 69.5% (the league average was 76.6%).

Cruz had an eerily similar plate discipline profile during his hot streak to Aaron Judge. Judge's contact rate was 72.2%, less than 3% better than Cruz's. They had an identical out-of-zone contact rate and a swinging strike rate separated by just .5% (Judge registered an 11.8% swstr%). Cruz and Judge also had an almost identical o-zone swing rate at 27% and 26.8%, respectively, though Judge was more aggressive when it came to pitches in the zone. He had a zone swing rate of 67.6%, while Cruz only swung at offerings in the zone 54.6% of the time in his home stretch.

Now sure, it's a small sample size of less than 200 plate appearances (167, to be exact), but it's very evident that Cruz was making the much-needed adjustments at the major league level on the fly. Cruz needs to continue making those improvements next year, but he has already shown he can continue to improve, even at the game's highest level. It will be fun to see what Cruz can do next season.

Third Base

Ke'Bryan Hayes is an extremely frustrating player. Last year, he only batted .244/.341/.345 through 560 plate appearances. He had an above-average 8.6% walk rate and a 21.8% strikeout rate. He was also in the 75th percentile of whiff rate and 63rd percentile of chase rate, so he has a good eye at the plate. However, despite having a 91 MPH exit velocity (top 85th percentile) and 46.8% hard-hit rate (top 84th percentile), Hayes hits for almost no power. He was barely in the triple-digits of ISO at .101 and overall had just a .294 wOBA and 88 wRC+.

Where Hayes struggled was lifting the baseball. Hayes had a launch angle of just 5.2 degrees. Hayes does have an exit velocity in the 85th percentile and a hard hit rate in the 84th percentile; Hayes' barrel rate was just 3.9% and in the bottom 13th percentile. This is what makes him such a frustrating player to watch. No player in the Statcast era has ever posted such good remarks in both exit velocity and hard-hit rate and has fallen shy of the 20-home run plateau in 500+ plate appearances until Hayes this year.

While Hayes needs to make this adjustment, he's not too far off from being a good hitter. He doesn't need to pull a Joey Gallo and focus all his effort into a launch angle of nearly 25 degrees. Guys like Alejandro Kirk, both Willson and William Contreras, Juan Soto, Nate Lowe, Bo Bichette, and Jose Abreu all had comparable exit velocity and/or hard hit rates, yet all had a sub-10 degree launch angle.

If Hayes figures this one thing out, he will be one of baseball's most valuable players. Everyone knows, or at least should know, how great of a defensive third baseman Hayes is. He had +24 defensive runs saved, the most by any player last year, along with +18 outs above average, the third most in the sport. On top of that, he had a quality +7.2 UZR/150. He's even a good base runner, swiping 20 bags in 25 attempts.

Give Hayes an 8-degree launch angle, and wait for the 5.0+ fWAR season. Hayes is so close to becoming such a complete player, with power, plate discipline, fielding, and base running. All he needs is this one adjustment, and you'll start seeing a ton of offensive production from the third baseman.

Depth Players

While the Pirates may not see these players play any notable role or even make their way to the major leagues, the team does have some decent depth options. One is Andres Alvarez. Alvarez batted .220/.329/.429 with a .342 wOBA, and 111 wRC+. Alvarez had a strikeout rate of 27.8% and a walk rate of 14.4% while hitting for above average power. He had a .209 isolated slugging percentage and 20 home runs. He was also a fast base runner with 21 stolen bases. Alvarez played a ton of positions, playing second base, shortstop, third base, and left field.

Another power-hitting infielder who could end up as a part of the team's MLB-ready depth is Aaron Shackelford. In 459 plate appearances, Shackelford batted .243/.306/.482 with a .341 wOBA and 111 wRC+. Shackelford had a solid 8.7% walk rate but struck out 29.4% of the time. On the plus side, he had a .249 isolated slugging percentage and hit 26 home runs. Although first base is his primary position, he played a lot of second base and a few games in right field. He also played a handful of games at third base back in 2019.

One prospect who's seen his stock significantly drop over the last few years is Mason Martin. Martin already showed some red flags in previous seasons, but they were on full display last year. The first baseman batted just .210/.387/.410, registering a .303 wOBA, and 79 wRC+. Martin has always been a high strikeout batter, but his 35.9% K-rate was a career-worst. His 9.6% walk rate and .200 isolated slugging percentage were the only positives. He also has arguably the most raw power in the system, but is severely limited by his strikeouts. He's also only limited to first base and designated hitter. While he can field his position to a playable degree, he's only ever played a small amount of outfield back in 2017 and is a well below average runner with arm strength that would only play at first.