Pittsburgh Pirates: Previewing Potential Rotation Battle

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The Pittsburgh Pirates could have a rotation battle on their hands during Spring Training

The Pittsburgh Pirates are entering 2023 with three starters who are essentially guaranteed a rotation spot. Those three include young right-handers Mitch Keller, Roansy Contreras, and middle-aged southpaw Rich Hill. It's a stark contrast in age between Keller and Contreras to Hill, but it's a solid trio nonetheless. However, the last few spots of the rotation are still undetermined.

Among all the Pirates' final rotation options are Johan Oviedo, JT Brubaker, and Vince Velasquez. Who has the best odds of landing the last two rotation spots between this trio? What strengths and weaknesses do each bring to the table, and what would be the best starting five the Pirates could put out on Opening Day?

Johan Oviedo

The Bucs acquired Johan Oviedo at the trade deadline for Jose Quintana and Chris Stratton. Oviedo was once considered one of the St. Louis Cardinals' better prospects. Oviedo started the year out in the Cardinals' bullpen, making just a single start. Oviedo totaled 20.1 innings out of the pen, working to a strong 2.66 ERA, 3.56 FIP, and 1.08 WHIP. The young righty had a healthy 25.6% strikeout rate to go along with a fantastic 4.9% walk rate. But he also had a mediocre 1.33 HR/9.

However, Oviedo was primarily used as an SP throughout the minor leagues, and that's the role the Pirates slotted him into during September. Although it was just seven starts, he made the best of it, working to a 3.23 ERA, 3.57 FIP, and 1.27 WHIP. Oviedo's strikeout and walk rate moved in the wrong direction, as he had just a 20.9% strikeout rate and 11.9% walk rate but allowed just a single home run in 30.2 innings.

The more important thing is that Oviedo not only maintained his velocity after the move to the rotation but actually saw a slight uptick. Oviedo averaged out at 95.5 MPH with his fastball and 84.7 MPH with his slider as a member of the Cardinals' bullpen. But when he pitched out of the Pirates' rotation, he was hitting 96.5 MPH and 86.5 MPH, respectively.

Among the three options, Oviedo has the highest ceiling. 2023 will only be his age-25 campaign, making him the youngest. He also throws the hardest among the trio. Going into 2021, he was ranked as the Cards' eighth-best prospect. Command has always been one of Oviedo's weaker abilities. But he only walked more than three batters in just three of his seven outings in black and gold, one of which was a clunker start. Some project Oviedo to end up in the bullpen, but he certainly has the ability to be a very underrated starting pitcher breakout candidate.

JT Brubaker

The Pirates have used JT Brubaker as a starting pitcher since 2020. Originally a sixth-round draft pick in 2015, Brubaker took a step forward from 2022. But while there were a handful of positives, there were also a handful of negatives. Overall on the season, Brubaker had a 4.69 ERA, 3.92 FIP, and 1.47 WHIP. His strikeout rate went from 24% to just 22.8%, while his walk rate rose from 7.1% to 8.4%.

But the biggest improvement was home runs. Last year, he had a 2.03 HR/9 but cut that down to just 1.06 this year. Although his ground ball rate increased slightly by 1.2%, most of it was better flyball luck. Brubaker's HR/FB ratio of 22.4% was one of the highest marks since batted ball rates started to be tracked. This year, it normalized to an 11.7% rate, which is almost identical to the league-average rate.

But Brubaker's season can be broken down into three pieces. Brubaker stumbled out of the gate, allowing eight earned runs in his first two starts of the year. Then, Brubaker found himself a groove, working to a 3.50 ERA, 3.67 FIP, and 1.37 WHIP for the next 92.2 frames. But the home stretch of the season did not treat him well. He pitched 44 innings, allowing 31 earned runs. Some bad luck, like a .371 BAbip, didn't help him out either, and he still had a workable 4.11 FIP during this stretch, but his season ended on a sour note regardless.

Despite Brubaker's decreased strikeout rate, he increased his chase rate to 30.6% (62nd percentile) while his whiff rate remained at 27.3% (also in the 62nd percentile). Brubaker has the highest curveball spin rate among Oviedo and Velasquez, coming in at 2813 RPM and in the top 88th percentile. Batters only managed a .250 wOBA against his curve. Though his sinker was also considered above average per run value.

Vince Velasquez

The Pirates signed Vince Velasquez to a one-year, $3.15 million deal this past off-season. Formerly a top prospect in the Houston Astros' and Philadelphia Phillies' systems, Velasquez was part of the blockbuster package that also included notorious former first-round pick Mark Appel that sent Ken Giles to the Houston Astros. After a solid 2016 rookie season, Velasquez has never lived up to the potential he once had.

Velasquez spent the 2022 season as part of the Chicago White Sox's pitching staff. All told, he pitched 75.1 innings in a swing-man role (nine starts in 27 games). Velasquez had a sub-par 4.78 ERA, 4.25 FIP, and 1.23 WHIP during this time. The right-hander struck out just 21.3% of opponents with a 1.31 HR/9, but he did have a quality 7.8% walk rate on the plus side. His ability to prevent walks was about the only silver lining.

Now Velasquez did pitch better as a reliever than a starter. He had a 4.07 ERA but 3.22 FIP and 1.06 WHIP as an RP. However, in the outings he had out of the Sox's rotation, he had a 5.26 ERA, 5.20 FIP, and 1.40 WHIP. Eight of the 11 home runs the right-hander allowed were during his games as a starting pitcher.

Unlike either Brubaker or Oviedo, there is no glaring positive about Velasquez. He was below average in all of Baseball Savant's metrics, and most ERA estimators did not paint him in a more favorable light. At best, instead of being a pitcher with an ERA close to 4.80, he was more of a pitcher with an ERA closer to 4.30-4.50. Velasquez's best performances were as a bullpen pitcher rather than a starter.

Verdict

If the Pirates want to put their best foot forward, Oviedo and Brubaker taking the last two spots would be the best option to open the year with. Oviedo has immense talent, and Brubaker pitched well for nearly a 100-inning stretch last season. Velasquez hasn't had an ERA+ of 100 or greater since 2016, and his best, most recent stretch of games was out of the bullpen.

But the Pirates seemed pretty set on opening the year with Velasquez in the starting rotation. Before the Pirates signed Hill, it almost seemed certain that Velasquez was going to have a starting rotation spot. At the very least, he was penciled in or had an inside track for one of the final spots. Now, it might be more of a two-way race between Brubaker and Oviedo.

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In the end, I, along with most fans, hope the rotation is finalized with Oviedo, Brubaker, and Velasquez getting moved to the bullpen. But I also wouldn't hold my breath on the Pirates opting to go this route. Based on previous comments made by the org with Velasquez, he may still have that inside track.

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