Pittsburgh Pirates: Projecting Bullpen Roles for the Start of 2024

The bullpen could be a strength for the Pittsburgh Pirates this season. How could roles within the bullpen be dished out?

With a little over a month to go until pitchers and catchers report to Bradenton to start spring training, there are still plenty of questions about the 2024 Pittsburgh Pirates. One group that does not have many questions is the bullpen.

While the bullpen could still use another proven lefty, all in all it appears that it will be a strong group this season. But looking a bit deeper under the hood, what roles could pitchers have out of the Pirate bullpen this season? Let's dive into that today.

Long relief - lefty Bailey Falter

You could potentially see Roansy Contreras in this role as well. However, as things currently stand it's more likely the Pirates give Contreras another chance to work out of the starting rotation when the season begins.

Like Contreras, Bailey Falter is also out of minor league options. This could work in his favor of cracking the team's Opening Day rotation. Combine that with the team's need to figure out who their long reliever would be and it could land on Falter.

Between the Phillies and Pirates last season, the lefty posted a 5.36 ERA, 5.25 FIP, 5.8% walk rate, 17.3% strikeout rate, and allowed 17 home runs (1.90 HR/9) in 80.2 innings. He pitched in 18 games, with 14 of them being starts.

Falter pitched much better out of the bullpen last season. In 17.2 relief innings, he posted a 1.02 ERA, while limiting opponents to a .197 batting average to go with a 4.3% walk rate and a 21.6% strikeout rate.

Go to big spot lefty - Ryan Borucki

When Ryan Borucki signed a minor league deal with the Pirates last May it was a move that flew under the radar of most fans. After making 8 appearances with Triple-A Indianapolis, Borucki joined the Pirate bullpen and never looked back.

In 38 appearances, Borucki pitched 40.1 innings posting a 2.45 ERA and a 3.50 FIP. He allowed just 4 home runs (0.89 HR/9), limited opponents to a .181 batting average, walked just 2.6% of opposing batters, and struck batters out at a 21.7% clip.

Will the clock strike midnight in 2024 and see Borucki turn back into a pumpkin? It's possible, but his opposing barrel rate of 6.3%, average exit velocity of 85.7 MPH, and 29.7% hard-hit rate all indicate that his success is repeatable. Regardless, Borucki has done more than enough to earn that opportuntiy out of the Pirate bullpen to begin the season.

High leverage situation arms - righties Dauri Moreta, Colin Holderman, Carmen Mlodzinski

When necessary, Shelton could go to Hernandez or Borucki in a high leverage situation against left-handed hitters. However, righties Dauri Moreta, Colin Holderman, and Carmen Mlodzinski should get a majority of the team's high leverage spots when the season begins.

After being acquired from the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for infielder Kevin Newman, Moreta had a breakout season with the Pirates in 2023. Moreta ran into some trouble in the middle of the season, but started the season strong and capped it off with a dominant September.

All in all, Moreta posted a 3.72 ERA, 2.93 FIP, 10.0% walk rate, 31.8% strikeout rate, and allowed just 4 home runs (0.62 HR/9) in 58 innings pitched. Led by a slider that developed into a dominant pitch (.162 batting average, .265 slugging percentage, 40.8% whiff rate) it did not take Moreta long to become an arm Shelton trusts in high leverage situations. That's where he should begin the 2024 season.

Like Moreta, Mlodzinski burst onto the scene in 2023. Making his MLB debut, the 31st overall pick in the 2020 MLB Draft looked like a budding bullpen star for the Pirates. Mlodzinski pitched 36 innings, posting a 2.25 ERA, 4.03 FIP, 11.8% walk rate, and a 22.4% strikeout rate. He limited opposing batters to a .211 average and he allowed 3 home runs (0.75 HR/9).

Mlodzinski's four-seamed fastball, changeup, and sweeper were all plus pitches last season. If that can continue, then the Pirates will have a very good back end of the bullpen option on their hands for a long time with Mlodzinski.

Out of these three, Holderman played the largest role in 2023. He started the season as the setup man to closer David Bednar. When healthy, Holderman was consistently used in high leverage situations. He did, however, miss time due to a wrist issue. For the season, he posted a 3.86 ERA, 3.29 FIP, 8.3% walk rate, and a 24.2% strikeout rate in 58 innings pitched.

While Holderman will undoubtedly begin the season in a high leverage role, it may not stick. He really struggled in high leverage situations last season and appears to be better suited for a middle relief role. However, he is working on adding a new pitch this offseason which could help him find more success in high levergae spots.

Closer - David Bednar

Having a set closer is not the optimal way to construct a roster or bullpen. That said, David Bednar is going to be Shelton's closer. He is also one of the best in the game, and will once again anchor the Pirate bullpen.

In three seasons since being acquired by the Pirates, Bednar owns a 2.25 ERA and a 2.56 FIP in 179.2 innings pitched. He has recorded 61 saves, walked 7.7% of batters faced, and struck opponents out at a 31.2% clip. He is also a two-time All-Star.

Bednar will be the Pirate bullpen anchor again this season. He is not just the best reliever in the Pirate bullpen, but one of the best relievers in all of baseball. 2024 should be another huge year for Bednar at the back end of the Pirate bullpen.