Pittsburgh Pirates Prospect Depth Chart: Starting Pitching

The Pittsburgh Pirates have added a handful of starting pitching prospects since the start of the rebuild, so what does the organization's starting pitcher depth look like now?

The Pittsburgh Pirates went into this rebuild with so-so starting pitching in the minor leagues. While there were some decent prospects, there wasn’t much on the immediate horizon. But now, the system has gained its fair share of pitching prospects. 

From trades, drafts, and other methods of acquiring young talent, the Pirates have steadily built up a decent core of young pitchers throughout the minor leagues. As we did with the Pirates’ minor league catchers, we are here today to look at the prospects the Pirates have for starting pitching. We’ll first start with the top prospects and work our way through to depth guys.

Top Prospects

Quinn Priester has consistently been listed in the top 100 of prospect rankings since 2020. Priester had a good 2022 season between Altoona and Indianapolis, owning a 3.29 ERA, 3.59 FIP, and 1.21 WHIP in 90.1 innings. Preister had a few bad starts at the end of the year, but it doesn’t take away from his talent. He typically throws in the mid-90s with his fastball but pairs that with a sinker, slider, curveball, and changeup. His curveball is elite, and his slider has also come a long way.

Over the last year, Luis Ortiz has made a name for himself. Ortiz’s numbers might not look great, with a 4.56 ERA, 4.40 FIP, and 1.14 WHIP. But he had a strong 27.1% strikeout rate and a 7.5% walk rate. Where Ortiz struggled was limiting home runs with a 1.45 HR/9. But given his 47.8% ground ball rate, 17.4% HR/FB ratio, and 3.75 xFIP, some bad luck played a role in his struggles. Ortiz looked great in the major leagues, showing off a blazing fastball, wipeout slider, and solid changeup.

Anthony Solometo was the Pirates’ second-round draft pick in 2021, but easily had the talent to be a top-20 selection. Solometo’s first 47.2 professional innings saw him work to the tune of a 2.64 ERA, 2.83 FIP, and 1.05 WHIP. The southpaw struck out 27.1% of opponents while not allowing a single home run. His 10.1% walk rate isn’t reflective of his command as he is considered one of, if not the best, command pitcher in the system. Solometo works with a high-80s/low-90s fastball, slurve, slider, and changeup. He has an extremely unorthodox delivery, which helps add to his deception and effectiveness.

Like Solometo, Bubba Chandler was a top 20 talent, maybe even a top 10 talent, but ended up in the third round because of a college commitment. Drafted as a two-way player, Chandler pitched better than he hit. He worked to a 2.61 ERA, 3.85 FIP, and 1.23 WHIP in 41.1 innings. Chandler allowed just three home runs while striking out over a third of the batters he faced (34.7% strikeout rate), though it also came with a poor 16.2% walk rate. Chandler is a highly talented pitcher, and while he didn’t hit all that well, pitching is probably his future anyway. But it would be nice to see him at least develop to the point where he could be an occasional pinch hitter.

Mike Burrows has made leaps and strides to becoming a quality pitching prospect. He’s always been known for his elite fastball and curveball. Both have extremely high spin rates and good velocity. Though it was always a question as to whether or not his change-up would ever develop into a reliable offering. It might not be the best changeup in pro baseball, but it’s become a solid third pitch. Last year, Burrows had a 4.01 ERA but a strong 3.29 FIP and 1.21 WHIP. Like Priester, a horrendous final start bloated his numbers.

Last but not least, you have Jared Jones, who has arguably the highest ceiling among the Pirates’ pitching prospects. Now Jones did not have a good season at Greensboro. He only had a 4.62 ERA, 4.85 FIP, and 1.35 WHIP. On the plus side, he had a quality 26.7% strikeout rate and a decent 9.6% walk rate. But he had a 1.39 HR/9 rate. But Jones did pitch in an extreme home run-friendly environment. Jones works in the upper-90s with a plus slider. He also has a decent curveball and changeup. Jones could work much better, given a less hitter-friendly environment next season.

Mid-Tier Prospects

Kyle Nicolas probably has the highest ceiling in this tier, though his floor bumps him down. Last year, he had a 3.97 ERA, 4.30 FIP, and 1.30 WHIP. He had a good 25.9% strikeout rate in 90.2 innings with a solid 0.89 HR/9. The downside is he had a mediocre 12.1% walk rate. Nicolas throws a mid-90s fastball, but he can ramp up the heat when he needs to. On top of that, his slider is plus-plus. His curveball projects to be about average, but he has a changeup that’s, at best, a work in progress. Along with questionable command, there’s been talk about whether or not he’ll stick as a starting pitcher because of his lack of a great third pitch. But he does have the ceiling to become a quality starting pitcher.

Thomas Harrington was the Pirates’ competitive balance pick in this past draft and brings a high-floor/low-ceiling type arm to the system. Harrington had a great final season at Cambell last year, working to a 2.53 ERA, .94 WHIP, and 6.2 K:BB ratio. Harrington allowed just a single home run. He also had a 30% strikeout rate and a 4.9% walk rate. Harrington typically works in the 90-94 MPH range but tops out at 96 MPH. His changeup is his best pitch, a mid-80s offering with tumble-like action that gets swings and misses. Harrington works with two breaking balls, that is a slider and a curveball. With excellent command, there’s a lot to like about Harrington.

Po-Yu Chen had an inconsistent 2022 but has shown the talent to become a decent future starting pitcher. The Taiwanese right-hander had a 4.58 ERA, but a solid 3.76 FIP and 1.26 WHIP. Chen’s peripherals included a 24.5% strikeout rate, an 8.6% walk rate, and 0.73 HR/9. Chen sits in the 90-93 MPH range but throws an average curveball, and elite splitter. Chen displayed quality command over all of his offerings as well.

Carmen Mlodzinski also had an inconsistent 2022, but did show flashes of brilliance. The right-hander had a 4.78 ERA and 1.41 WHIP, but 3.77 FIP. Mlodzisnki struck out 24.1% of opponents faced with an 8.7% walk rate. He also had a .85 HR/9. Mlodzinski did have a .344 batting average on balls in play, and did have some solid months during the year.

After the Pirates selected Thomas Harrington, they picked-up Hunter Barco. Despite undergoing Tommy John surgery, he will be an arm to watch in the near future. Barco ended his career at the University of Florida on a positive note. In 50.2 innings, Barco had a 2.50 ERA, .95 WHIP, and 6.27 K:BB ratio. Although Barco allowed six home runs, he also had a 5.5% walk rate and 34.4% K-rate. Barco sits around 92-93 MPH, but throws a wicked slider. He also throws an above average change-up. His cross-fire delivery also adds some deception.

Young Arms Who Are Still Developing

Joaquin Tejada is one of the more interesting players in the Pirate system. Acquired at the 2021 trade deadline in the Tyler Anderson trade, Tejada was considered one of Seattle's better international prospects. He hasn’t pitched much professionally but has flashed decent potential. He typically works in the low-90s, but there is room for him to add some velocity. His real weapon is his curveball, which comes in with about 2900 RPM of spin. He also throws a slider and splitter. He’s still only 19 years old and won’t turn 20 until mid-July.

Michael Kennedy was the Pirates’ big over-slot signing from the 2022 draft. Picked in the fourth round with the 110th overall pick, Kennedy was considered a top-100 talent in this year’s draft. The southpaw throws a fastball, slider, and changeup, all of which project to be average or better. Although he doesn’t throw very hard right now, he is one of the Pirates’ youngest pitching prospects. He just turned 18 on November 30th.

Owen Kellington was one of the many over-slot picks from the Pirates’ 2021 draft class. The right-hander was injured for a good portion of 2022, as he was limited to just ten innings. Kellington throws a fastball and curveball, the ladder of which projects to be well above average. At just 19-years-old (turns 20 in February), there’s definitely some room for him to add some velocity.

Of course, there are plenty of other under-20 prospects who are unranked by most outlets, at least right now. This includes the likes of Pitterson Rosa, Andres Silvera, Isiah Uribe, and Wilber Dotel. 

Swing-Man Type Pitchers

Cody Bolton was once considered one of the Pirates’ top pitching prospects, but after missing two years of play, there were plenty of questions surrounding his 2022 season. But Bolton delivered a solid campaign. In 75.2 innings, Bolton had a 3.09 ERA, 3.81 FIP, and 1.28 WHIP. While he had a 25.4% strikeout rate and outstanding .48 HR/9, he also dished out free passes to 12.4% of the batters he faced. Bolton sits in the 92-95 MPH range with an above-average slider, and solid change-up. His walk rate was a career high by a mile, so it will be interesting to see if he can improve it going forward. Bolton will likely make his debut sometime this season.

J.C. Flowers mostly worked in long relief with two starts sprinkled in between. His long-term role is still up for debate, but for now, I have him as a swing-man pitcher. Overall, Flowers had a 2.88 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, albeit with a so-so 4.18 FIP. Flowers did manage better numbers after June, but there’s a lot more talent than the back of his baseball card says. He has some decent speed, clocking in at 94-96 MPH, but his slider is an elite-level offering. He also throws a two-seamer, but his changeup is a work in progress. On the plus side, he has shown some potential as a starting pitcher. But if he fails as a starter, he does have the stuff to become a high-leverage reliever.

Nick Dombkowski was an undrafted free agent after the 2021 draft, and he delivered a big 2022. In 67.1 innings (36 total appearances), the southpaw had a strong 3.07 ERA, 3.26 FIP, and 1.10 WHIP. Despite only hitting 88-92 on the radar, he struck out over 30% of the batters he faced (30.7%). He also managed a solid 6.7% walk rate and 0.94 HR/9. As stated earlier, Dombkowski isn’t a flamethrower. But both his slider and change-up flash above-average potential, and he’s considered to have above-average command. Dombkowksi worked in long relief and made two starts. He fits the mold of a swing-man type starter.