Pittsburgh Pirates Prospects: 2023 Minor League Season Statistical Leaders

Let's take a look at the minor league statistical leaders in the Pittsburgh Pirates farm system from this past minor league season

The minor leagues has been a focus for the Pittsburgh Pirates for a few years now. With them being in a rebuild, how prospects and other minor leaguers are performing will be important to the Pirates' future. So let's take a look at the best-performing minor league players from this past season.

There are many statistical ways to evaluate players, but we will only look at rate statistics today. For batters, this includes batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, isolated slugging, OPS, wOBA, strikeout rate, walk rate, and wRC+. For the pitchers, we will be using ERA, FIP, WHIP, strikeout rate, walk rate, and xFIP, as well as opponent batting average and most innings pitched.

I am also trying to keep this to players who played most, if not all, of their season at a full-season level. The minimum plate appearances I am looking for is 300. For the starting pitchers, I am requiring at least a dozen starts. So, with that established, let's get into our first player.

(For those interested, you can go back and look at the statical leaders in both the 2021 and 2022 seasons with those two links)

wRC+, wOBA, Isolated Slugging Percentage - Jack Brannigan

Jack Brannigan was the Pirates' third-round draft pick in 2022. He won't be the last '22 draft pick we will mention today, and you couldn't have asked for a better first extended look against pro pitching than what Brannigan turned in. The infielder hit and hit very well between Bradenton and Greensboro this past season.

Brannigan finished the year with a .275/.390/.524 triple-slash, a .415 wOBA, and 146 wRC+ through 309 plate appearances. Weighted runs created plus, or wRC+ for short, is a stat based on wOBA (weighted on-base average) and adjusted for park factors and league run environment. 100 is always average, 101 is 1% above average, 99 is 1% below average, and so on. It's one of the best new-age statistics, and Jack Brannigan led all Pirates minor leaguers in both wOBA and wRC+.

The other statistic that Brannigan led Pirates' minor leaguers in was isolated slugging percentage, which is simply just slugging percentage minus batting average. Brannigan also walked at an elite 14.4% rate but struck out in 29.9% of his plate appearances. Along with providing plus power, Brannigan was a threat on the base paths, swiping 23 in 27 attempts.

Brannigan is an outstanding defensive third baseman. He was so good with the glove the Pirates got him playing time at both second base and shortstop. He played short more often than the hot corner once he got to Greensboro. Brannigan has one of the best arms among the Pirates' position players. He was drafted as a two-way player and threw upper-90s fastballs in college, so making the deepest throws from third and short will likely be easy for him.

Brannigan will likely get his season kicked off at Altoona next year. We will see if the Pirates continue to stick him at shortstop more often than third base. He can play the position, but with so many other shortstops in the system, they might try him elsewhere. His arm would play exceptionally well in the outfield if they also decided to go that route. But Brannigan showed off he has one of the highest offensive ceilings in the Pirates' system by leading all of the franchise's current minor leagues in some of the most important stats.

On-Base Percentage, Walk Rate (Batter) - Termarr Johnson

The second of three 2022 draft picks, Termarr Johnson had an up-and-down 2023 season. But he ended the year on an extremely high note, delivering a ton of promise and much to look forward to in 2024. Johnson also displayed his elite plate discipline this year at Bradenton and Greensboro.

Johnson finished off his 2023 season batting .244/.422/.438 triple-slash, a strong .410 wOBA, and 141 wRC+. The second baseman hit for his fair share of power with a .195 isolated slugging percentage and 18 home runs, but he also walked at an insane 21.9% rate. Johnson struck out an uncharacteristic amount of times with a 26% strikeout rate, but his issues with the strikeout look like they may be behind him after an outstanding second half.

After the All-Star break, Johnson hit .260/.451/.487 with a .437 wOBA and 161 wRC+. Johnson walked even more frequently than he did in the first half, with a 23.4% Bwalk rate. He struck out far less often compared to his strikeout rate before the break of 30.7%, cutting it down to a meager 20% rate. Johnson also hit for more pop with a .227 ISO.

Johnson finished off the 2023 season with a walk rate of 21.9%. Johnson didn't just have the highest walk rate in the Pirates' system. He had the highest walk rate among all minor league batters with at least 300 plate appearances. Detroit Tigers' infield prospect Cristian Santana had the second highest at 21.7%. Johnson was also just one of eight minor league batters with a walk rate of at least 20%.

This was a historically good season for Johnson in terms of walks. He is the first prospect in their age-19 or younger season to draw 100 walks. This was also the highest walk rate from any batter, with at least 400 plate appearances in the minor leagues over the last decade.

It's also no surprise that Johnson led the Pirates' minor league players in on-base percentage. At .422, he outpaced fellow 2022 draft pick Tres Gonzalez by 17 points. This was another rate that was among the best in the minor leagues this year, ranking 29th out of the over 1000 players with 300+ plate appearances across all levels.

Johnson's outstanding second half was promising, to say the least. He significantly cut the strikeouts down while keeping an elite walk rate and hitting for above-average power. Hopefully, he can continue to build upon that in 2024 and beyond.

ERA, FIP, WHIP, K:BB ratio, Strikeout Rate, Walk Rate, xFIP - Braxton Ashcraft

There were just two noteworthy statistics that Ashcraft didn't lead all Pittsburgh Pirates minor league starting pitchers in. We'll get into that in a minute, but let's appreciate Braxton Ashcraft's outstanding rebound season after barely playing at all in any of the last three years.

Ashcraft finished off his 2023 season with a 2.39 ERA, 2.85 FIP, and 1.08 WHIP. The former second-round pick led all Pirates in these three stats. Ashcraft had an outstanding 29.6% strikeout rate, as well as a 5.2% walk rate, marking two more stats Ashcraft led Pirates' minor leaguers in. Leading Pirates minor leaguers in K% and BB% also means he led them in K:BB ratio at 5.73. xFIP (expected fielding independent pitching) estimates how good a pitcher was if they had a league average HR/FB ratio. At 3.28, Ashcraft led all Pirates once again.

Ashcraft's season wasn't just great in terms of the Pirates' organization. It was a great season throughout all of minor league baseball. Among pitchers with at least 12 starts, Ashcraft had the 5th-best FIP, the 9th-best ERA, and the 7th-highest K:BB ratio. Ashcraft also ranked top 30 in WHIP (29th), walk rate (20th), and xFIP (16th).

There were only two stats that Ashcraft did not lead the Pirates' minor league starters in. That was home runs per nine innings and batting average against. Even though he did not lead the Pirates' minor leaguers in these two categories, he was still very good with a 0.68 HR/9 rate and an opponent batting average of .229.

But there was one thing worth mentioning, and something that almost made me leave him off of today's list. That was his innings count. Ashcraft only pitched 52.2 innings despite starting 19 games. Ashcraft pitched at most four innings in any outing. The Pirates used Ashcraft in an untraditional way because he barely pitched from 2021-2022. However, he did reach the minimum requirements despite his atypical usage.

I, for one, hope Ashcraft is used in a more regular starting pitching role moving forward. If he can maintain the upper-90s fastball he displayed last year for Altoona across five, six, maybe even seven innings, Ashcraft may end up being one of the Pirates' most under-the-radar pitching prospects.

Batting Average Against - J.P. Massey

Here is the one of the only pitchers who led Pirate minor league starters in another rate statistic whose name isn't Braxton Ashcraft. That's fellow 2022 draft class member J.P. Massey. Massey had a lot of ups and downs during the 2023 season but overall was a promising year after coming off a rough final season in college.

Massey's season started at Bradenton, where he pitched to a 3.28 ERA, 4.31 FIP, and 1.32 WHIP. Massey had a 27.1% strikeout rate and 0.73 HR/9 but a walk rate clocking in at 11.4%. The Pirates used Massey out of the bullpen twice, and in both times, he struggled. Despite these two appearances making up just 4.2 of his 49.1 innings pitched, they made up six of the 18 earned runs he allowed. If you only look at his starts, Massey had an even better 2.42.

After making the Futures Game, the right-hander was promoted to Greensboro, where he struggled to a 4.65 ERA, 5.54 FIP, and 1.35 WHIP. His strikeout rate dipped to 19.4% while his walk rate ballooned to 17.4%, though his home run rate was still solid at 0.87. Granted, of his nine games at Greensboro, only two resulted in more than two earned runs allowed. These two games made up over 50% of his earned runs allowed, even though they made up less than a quarter of the innings he pitched.

Massey's season was cut short, as the Pirates placed him on the developmental list late into August. This was also his second stint on the developmental list. This doesn't necessarily mean that he was injured, but the Pirates opted to let him rest a few times in the second half of the season. But even though his season was cut short, Massey still held opposing batters to just a .207 batting average against him, which was the best among Pirates minor league pitchers.

He also had a hefty 59.1% ground ball rate, which was another statistic that Massey led Pirates' minor league starting pitchers. That undoubtedly helped Massey hold opponents to a batting average right around the Mendoza line. It also helped that he had an above-average strikeout rate at Bradenton.

HR/9 Rate - Wilber Dotel

We finally reach the end of today's article with the second pitcher statistical leader. That is Wilber Dotel. The best way to describe Dotel was he played with fire all season but never got burnt. But one of the positives of his year was his HR/9 rate, in which he led all Pirates' starting pitching prospects.

In 78.2 innings, Dotel owned a 3.09 ERA and a minuscule 0.34 HR/9 rate. Batters also only had a .219 average against him. But that's about where the positives end for Dotel's season. The right-hander only had a 16.8% strikeout rate. But walks were also a massive issue with a 12.8% walk rate. Even though Dotel did not allow many home runs, he only had a 40.3% ground ball rate and a 34.4% fly ball rate.

At the end of the season, Dotel had a 4.85 FIP and 5.56 xFIP. Nothing about this was sustainable. Sure, it's not impossible for flyball pitchers to have an above-average home run rate. But a 3.4% HR/FB ratio is unsustainable. Plus, with the amount of walks he allows, he would almost have to keep up an 0.5 HR/9 rate or better to sustain any success.

Dotel's season was weird. There are lots of walks and, a few strikeouts and home runs. We shall see how he pitches moving forward. However, I would be concerned about how he will approach the 2024 after such a worrisome 2023 campaign.