Pittsburgh Pirates Prospects: Building A Rotation Of Underrated Pitching Prospects

Building a potential future starting rotation for the Pittsburgh Pirates consisting of lesser talked about prospects

You could make a future rotation of Pittsburgh Pirates pitching prospects. A starting five of Paul Skenes, Bubba Chandler, Jared Jones, Anthony Solometo, and Thomas Harrington looks pretty good on paper. If the Pirates were to open the year with that as their rotation, that’s honestly better than some Major League rotations. There are plenty of other potential future rotation options behind them.

But that’s a rotation of top-pitching prospects. Skenes, Jones, and Solomon were all part of at least one top 100 prospect list. Chandler’s outstanding second half should put him on some top-100 prospect lists going into 2023. Harrington showed off some good stuff, as well. These five are on most prospect radars.

What I want to build is a rotation consisting of underrated Pirates pitching prospects. Most of these prospects aren’t on any top Pirates prospect list. But they are still prospects who deserve some recognition.

Sean Sullivan

I’ve covered Sean Sullivan enough to the point where you probably know his name if you have read my stuff. Still, Sullivan isn’t on any top Pirates’ prospect lists, and he’s shown some decent talent over the last two seasons. He spent all of 2023 at Double-A, where he produced some solid numbers.

In 113.2 innings, Sullivan put up a 3.88 ERA, 4.16 FIP, and 1.27 WHIP. The right-hander may have had a sub-par 20.4% strikeout rate, a 5.4% decrease from 2022, but his 8% walk rate and 1.03 HR/9 were both above league average. Sullivan also had a great second half with a 3.55 ERA, 3.53 FIP, and 1.24 WHIP after the All-Star Break. More importantly, however, was that he had a HR/9 of just 0.53.

Sullivan is a guy who relies on command over power. He averages out around 91-94 MPH while throwing a slider, curveball, and change-up. While there’s nothing standout about his pitch selection and every pitch sits at an average level (maybe his slider plays at a 55), he does locate everything well and hits his spots with frequency. The right-hander’s wind-up may look like he throws with a much lower arm slot but brings it back up to a three-quarters slot.

Sullivan is only going to be 23 for the entirety of the 2024 regular season. I think he could be an underrated rotation option for next season. Many are obviously excited to see Skenes, Jones, and Solometo in the majors, but don’t sleep on Sullivan. He’s shown talent at every level of the minor leagues thus far and successfully made the jump from High-A to Double-A.

Khristian Curtis

Khristian Curtis was a 12th-round pick by the Pirates in 2023. But Curtis was ranked as a much better talent than a 12th-round pick. MLB Pipeline had him as the 197th-best prospect in the draft. Baseball America was significantly more bullish on him, placing him at 146. Meanwhile, Future Star Series puts him directly in the middle at 172.

Curtis’ 2023 season was not great. In 64 innings, Curtis pitched to just a 7.03 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, and 1.66 K:BB ratio. The right-hander had an 18.7% strikeout rate along with a mediocre 11.2% walk rate. His 1.69 HR/9 rate was also below average in the PAC-12. Curtis did, however, look significantly better in 2022, but only pitched 22 innings.

There were significant injury concerns going into the draft, which led to him falling so far. He did not pitch in 2021 due to ulnar nerve surgery. Elbow issues lingered into 2022 as he needed another procedure to remove stitches in his arm. Although most sites had him ranked as a top 200 draft pick, he ended up going 347th overall, but the Pirates signed him to an overslot deal worth nearly $500K.

When healthy, Curtis can run his fastball into the low-mid-90s with movement. His slider is his best breaking pitch. Scouts observed it as a very firm offering that comes in the upper-80s. Because of how hard he throws it, some say it has cutter-like attributes. Curtis’ best off-speed pitch is his fading change-up. It’s probably the best pitch of his arsenal. He’ll also throw a looping curveball, but it’s considered the worst pitch of his arsenal.

Curtis keeps his arm relatively short throughout his delivery. He mostly uses his size to generate velocity, as he does not throw with an overly complicated or high-effort delivery. His arm slot is from a high three-quarters angle as well.

Curtis has a lot of physicality on his side as he stands at 6’5”, 210 pounds. It will be interesting to see how Curtis can pitch in a fully healthy season. MLB Pipeline made it sound like he had trouble tunneling and commanding his pitches because of his injuries. Future Star Series stated that he is trending upward.

Antwone Kelly

Antwone Kelly was one of the Pirates’ international signees in the 2020-2021 off-season. So far, Kelly has had a solid professional baseball career, but he finally reached Bradenton last season. But overall, he pitched well between the Florida Complex League and A-Ball, tossing a total of 43.2 innings.

Between these innings, Kelly owned a 2.89 ERA, 2.95 FIP, and 1.26 WHIP. Kelly’s 9.9% walk rate may not have been great, but he offset that with a strikeout rate of nearly 30% (29.1%). Impressively, he did not allow a single home run. But he didn’t have an elite ground ball rate, only clocking in at 35.5%.

Kelly appeared in two games for the Marauders at the end of the minor league season, but this gives us some insight into his pitch mix. Kelly primarily threw a low-80s slider in these games, with a low-90s four-seam fastball as his second most used pitch. His sinker was his third pitch and sat with similar velocity to his four-seam fastball. He occasionally mixed in a change-up, but it was rarely used.

Kelly’s delivery is low-effort while tossing from a low arm slot. Kelly starts from the first base side of the mound before firing toward home plate. Kelly stands at 5’10”, 185-LBS. Although he may not be tall for a pitcher, he could add some muscle as he moves up to the minor leagues and, hopefully, the big leagues.

Kelly has worked as both a long reliever and starting pitcher. Last year, he only made two starts, but nine of his 14 total appearances lasted at least three innings. I don’t see a reason for Bradenton to use him primarily as a starting pitcher next season. Kelly is still pretty young, as he doesn’t turn 21 until the first of September.

Justin Meis

Justin Meis is our second 2021 draft pick of the day, joining Sean Sullivan. Meis was taken in the 11th round of the draft. It’s more likely he’ll end up as a relief pitcher long-term. But he still started a handful of games. A look at Meis’ numbers may make you wonder why he’s on today’s list.

Meis pitched 83 innings, working to a 4.55 ERA, 5.34 FIP, and 1.46 WHIP. The right-hander had a strikeout rate of just 20.9% with a mediocre 12.7% walk rate. He also struggled to limit home runs with a below-average 1.41 HR/9 rate. But Meis did have a strong second half to the season, catching fire after the All-Star Break.

Through his final 34.1 innings of the year, Meis pitched to a 2.08 ERA, 3.59 FIP, and 1.04 WHIP. Meis saw his strikeout rate go from below 18% in the first half to 28.1% in the second half. He averaged 2.05 home runs allowed per nine innings prior to the break but dropped that to just 0.52 in the second half. The only thing that got worse was his walk rate. His 12.2% walk rate was poor already, but saw an uptick to 13.7% in the second half.

Meis throws in the 94-95 MPH range, but his best pitch is his wipeout slider. It sits somewhere between a slurve and a sweeper and comes in around the mid-upper-80s. Meis’ arm action is somewhat whippy as he quickly brings his arm back in his wind-up. Maybe a slight simplification could help improve his command.

Meis made ten starts last season for Altoona, and his numbers out of the bullpen were slightly better than when he was a starter. We shall see the role Meis takes on next season. He’ll likely end up as a reliever where his velocity and break can play up, and lack of control can be hidden to a degree. Still, I decided to include him on this list because he made double-digit starts.