Pittsburgh Pirates Prospects: Debating Who Should/Should Not Be Available in Trades

Untouchable - Paul Skenes

The Pirates drafted Paul Skenes with the number one overall pick, and there's almost no doubt in my mind that if there is anyone in the system who is untouchable, it would be him. The Bucs inked him to a record-setting signing bonus valued at $9.2 million. The hard-throwing right-hander arguably has the highest ceiling of any pitching prospect currently in the minor leagues.

Skenes pitched 122.2 innings for Louisiana State University in their College World Series run, pitching to a 1.69 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, and 10.45 K:BB ratio. Skenes struck out 45.2% of the batters he faced with a microscopic 4.3% walk rate. He also wasn't prone to the long ball, with a HR/9 of just 0.51. After the Pirates drafted Skenes, they were cautious with his innings, only allowing him to pitch 6.2 frames throughout the minor leagues last season.

Skenes throws hard and had the second-highest fastball velocity among all minor league pitchers in 2023. He can top out at 102 MPH when he reaches back for more velocity. Skenes also has a devastating slider and a plus change-up. Skenes isn't just a young flamethrower with little command. He has a well-above-average ability to locate with plenty of athleticism, which should help him further develop his command.

For the Pirates to even start to consider moving Skenes, it would have to be for an insane haul. We're talking about something like George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, and at least one of Bryan Woo, Emmerson Hancock, Bryce Miller from the Mariners, Jesus Luzardo, Edward Cabrera, and Jake Burger from the Marlins. Of course, neither team would make that trade. Skenes is great, but nobody would give up that much for him, and if there was any prospect the Pirates wouldn't budge in their asking price, it would be Skenes.

Overpay Required - Termarr Johnson

Termarr Johnson was selected in the first round of the 2022 draft by the Bucs. Considered far and away the best pure hitter of the draft class, Johnson's first pro season went great. While he got off to a rocky start, he started to put things together during the summer months and had a fantastic second half of the 2023 season.

After the first week of July, Johnson was batting .229/.389/.391, which was good but not what you'd expect from a player who set the record for the highest signing bonus for a fourth-overall pick at the time. He was walking at an extreme 19.7% rate but struck out 31.6% of the time. Overall, Johnson had a .379 wOBA and 120 wRC+. But again, this is not the kind of production you'd be expecting from Johnson.

But through his final 218 plate appearances of the year, Johnson batted .261/.458/.497 with a .445 wOBA and 165 wRC+. Johnson walked in nearly a quarter of his plate appearances with a 24.3% BB%. However, he significantly cut down on strikeouts as his K% dropped to 19.7%. He was also hitting for more power as his ISO jumped to .236. Johnson's batting average was a tad low for someone who was considered the best pure hitter of his class, but he did have a .288 batting average in balls in play, indicating some poor batted-ball luck.

Johnson played some shortstop when he first arrived on the pro scene in 2022 but saw only five games and 46 innings there this season. He projects as a solid defensive second baseman with an arm that will play better on the right side of the infield. Johnson is an above-average runner who can cover some ground up the middle.

I think the Pirates would move Johnson, but for nothing less than a sizable overpay. The Pirates would need to get at least one player who has proven to be an impact player in the Major Leagues and is still in pre-arbitration. While it might be less than what it would take for the Pirates to move Skenes, I don't see it happening, either.

For The Right Price/Player - Jared Jones, Anthony Solometo, Bubba Chandler, Thomas Harrington

The Pirates have a lot of pitching prospects that they might be willing to listen to offers on. All but one of them was a former high school pick. Jared Jones was a second-round 2020 selection who had a great 2023 season, making significant strides in his control and pitching to an above-average level at Triple-A. He is one of the hardest-throwing minor leaguers with good breaking stuff.

Anthony Solometo was another second-round pick by the Bucs the following season. Solometo also pitched well in the minors this year. Although his numbers took a hit going from High-A to Double-A, he was among the Eastern League's youngest pitchers over the last decade. Plus he pitched to an average to above average level overall for Altoona despite this being his age-20 season. Solometo's velocity has slowly gotten better and even topped out at 95 MPH this year. With a plus slider and solid change-up, he has a good pitch mix. However, Solometo has some of the best command throughout the minor leagues.

Bubba Chandler was taken the round after Solometo. 2023 was his first full season of play, and like Johnson, got off to a bumpy start. He had trouble locating and his stuff wasn't playing to the level it should have been. But in the second half of the year, Chandler posted a sub-2.00 ERA and saw his walk rate drop significantly. Chandler was getting way more swings and misses while hitting his spots more frequently. It will be fun to see him carve up Double-A batters next year (assuming he isn't included in a trade).

Finally, there's Thomas Harrington. Harrington was a first-round competitive balance pick in 2022 and their first pick after Termarr. Harrington had a quality campaign between Bradenton and Altoona. While Harrington does not throw hard, he has a spin-efficient fastball that carries extremely well through the zone. He reworked his slider to make it more of a sweeper, too. His change-up also looked fantastic. Harrington's curveball is his worst pitch, but still one that could play to an average level. I think he is one of the most underrated pitching prospects currently in the minors.

It is a little counter-intuitive for the Pirates to trade pitching prospects who are nearly MLB-ready when pitching depth at the Major League level is their weakest link right now. But if the Pirates can get an impact player by trading one or two of these pitching prospects, then they should do it. Of course, they shouldn't just make a trade to make a trade. If one or multiple of these prospects were to headline a trade, it needs to be for the right player. However, I think the Pirates definitely would listen on these prospects if a team called asking about them.