Pittsburgh Pirates Prospects: Deep Dive Into the Farm System's Pitching

The Pittsburgh Pirates farm system has a deep group of pitching prospects. So, let's take a comprehensive look at all the noteworthy pitchers the team has to currently offer.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have one of the best systems in baseball once again. After losing some prospects, mostly to names graduating rookie status, the Pirates have added a handful more top names from the draft, and most recently the trade deadline. However, a good portion of their system is filled with notable pitching prospects.

Building around pitching is probably the best route to go. Pitching is arguably the most important part to the most recent World Series winning teams. Not only is starting pitching arguably the most vital area of building a team, but it’s also the area where depth is the most important. So today, I want to take a look at all the noteworthy pitching prospects in the system, going from the very top all the way down to the depth options.

Note that these aren’t in any particular order. I will also give a brief overview of how I divided each category.

Top Prospects

Here’s the very best the Pirates have to offer right now. These prospects not only could make the Majors within the next two seasons, but they could also be potential ace-like pitchers and rotation anchors. These are the guys that should frontline a Pirates’ future starting pitching rotation.

Paul Skenes

The Pirates and Paul Skenes broke the all-time signing bonus record when they took him with the first pick in the 2023 draft. Skenes is well deserving of that $9.2 million bonus. The right-hander was a key cog (arguably the most important player) in LSU’s College World Series run. In 122.2 innings, Skenes worked to a 1.69 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, and 10.45 K:BB ratio. Skenes only allowed seven home runs, while striking out over 200 batters (209 for a 45.2% strikeout rate). That might be impressive, but what's more impressive is his walk rate below 5% at 4.3%.

Skenes has three legitimate plus to elite offerings. His fastball is hitting 97-100 MPH and topping at 102. Then there’s his wipeout slider, which was basically unhittable last year. His changeup is a slept on pitch, only because his four-seamer and slider are that good. It's another pitch he can rely on. Skenes isn't just a young flamethrower with no idea where it's going either. He dotted up opponents and painted the edges with his elite stuff. Skenes is even athletic, as he worked some as a catcher and first base while with Air Force prior to his transfer to LSU.

Jared Jones

The Pirates took Jared Jones in the second round of the 2020 draft as a hard-throwing high schooler. After showing a ton of talent in both 2021 and 2022, it seems like it’s all coming together for Jones this season. In 78.2 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, Jones owns a strong 3.31 ERA, 3.43 FIP, and 1.16 WHIP. Jones has an outstanding 0.64 HR/9 to go with a healthy 27.3% strikeout rate and an 8.9% walk rate. Although his ERA is over 4.70 at Triple-A at the moment, part of that is because his batting average on balls in play is at .322. All of his peripheral stats have gone in the right direction since getting to Indy.

Jones doesn't throw as hard as Skenes (very few do), however, he does throw hard at 96-97 MPH and has hit 100 before. Jones' fastball might only be surpassed by Skenes because he throws with around 2500 RPM. Jones also has a plus slider, above-average curveball, and average change-up. The question wasn't whether Jones had the stuff, but the ability to locate it. While his command still isn't great, it's definitely gotten better, and his strike throwing ability (his control) has significantly improved.

Anthony Solometo

One year after taking Jones in the second round, the Pirates then took Anthony Solometo in the same round of the 2021 draft. Solometo was also a high school pick. He’s already made it to Double-A and is the second-youngest pitcher at that level. Overall in 92.1 innings between Greensboro and Altoona, Solometo has a 2.73 ERA, 3.14 FIP, and 1.16 WHIP. He has a 27.9% strikeout rate, 8.6% walk rate, and 0.49 HR/9. Solometo has done extremely well at Double-A, especially considering just how young he is.

After starting off with two flamethrowers, let's slow it down with Solometo. The lefty hits about 91-94, but that's plenty of velocity for him. He also throws a quality slider and a good changeup. Solometo has the best command in the system and can put the ball just about wherever he wants. He also has a wind-up and delivery reminiscent of Madison Bumgarner and Dontrell Willis, so he also has deception to his outstanding command.

Thomas Harrington

The next top pitching prospect is Thomas Harrington. Harrington was a first-round competitive balance pick from their 2022 draft class. Harrington has pitched 92.2 innings for Bradenton and Greensboro, working to a 3.69 ERA, 3.79 FIP, and 1.27 WHIP. Harrington has both a great 28.1% strikeout rate and a 6.1% walk rate. His HR/9 is his weakest number, though 0.97 is still fairly solid. Harrington’s numbers for Greensboro aren’t too impressive, but his BAbip is nearly .400 at the moment, inflating his ERA.

Harrington typically sits 92-94 and tops out at 96. Although he doesn’t have elite velocity, he does have good spin and it carries through the zone. Of his two breaking offerings, his slider is the better pitch. It has above-average potential, though his curveball isn’t terrible either. Overall, his second-best offering is his tumbling changeup. Harrington also has plus command and has shown a ton of control thus far.

Mike Burrows

Oh, what could have been. Mike Burrows ascended from mid-tier prospect with relief risk to a borderline top-100 prospect in 2022. Burrows pitched to a 4.01 ERA. but a 3.29 FIP, and 1.21 WHIP in 94.1 innings in 2022. Burrows struck out 28.2% of opponents with a quality 7.8% walk rate. A pitcher who consistently limited home runs, Burrows had an HR/9 rate of just 0.76. Even these numbers are underselling him, as he gave up six earned runs while making two outs during his final start of the season. His ERA going into that game was 3.46.

Burrows was projected to potentially play a key role for the Pirate 2023 rotation, but after just 6.2 innings, the right-hander had to undergo Tommy John surgery, likely eliminating him until the second half of 2024. Either way, Burrows certainly has talent.

His fastball/curveball are plus offerings. His four-seamer sits 93-96 MPH with elite spin, coming in around 2500 RPM. His curveball has even more spin, sitting around 3000 RPM. There were always questions as to whether or not his changeup would improve enough to become a quality offering, and he did so in 2022, making it an above-average third pitch. He was even working on a second breaking pitch during Spring before his untimely surgery. 

Mid-Tier Prospects

A mid-tier prospect doesn’t mean that these names are bad or unworthy of future success. Even the best teams can’t have five aces. Most of these names project as #3-#5 starters. However, that also doesn’t mean none could rise above expectations and become something greater.

Hunter Barco

Hunter Barco may have risen enough already to put himself into top prospect status had it not been for his late start to the 2023 season. Barco underwent Tommy John surgery in May of 2022 when at the time he had a 2.50 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 34.3% strikeout rate, and 5.5% walk rate for the University of Florida. The Pirates took Barco in the second round, and he’s only just returned to action over this past month. Barco pitched 7.2 innings at the Florida Complex League, allowing just one earned run, walking two, and striking out nine before his recent promotion to Low-A Bradenton.

Barco sits in the low-90s and pairs that with a good slider. His third offering is a changeup. Overall, Barco can put his offerings where he wants in the strike zone. However, Barco also has some deception in his delivery. It’s a crossfire delivery with a low arm slot, which further helps his stuff play up.

Jackson Wolf

Jackson Wolf is one of the newest members of the Pirates. A fourth-round pick by the San Diego Padres in 2021, Wolf has had a quality 2023 season prior to being traded to the Bucs for Rich Hill and Ji Man Choi. In 88.1 innings, Wolf has a 4.08 ERA, 3.86 FIP, and 1.09 WHIP for the Padres’ Double-A affiliate. This also includes a strong 29.8% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate. The only number on his stat line that’s not great is his 1.22 HR/9 rate. Wolf made his Pirate organizational debut on Sunday, allowing just 1 earned run in 4.2 innings pitched at Double-A Altoona.

Wolf is a soft-tosser, averaging 88-90 MPH. While his four-seamer does not have any plus qualities to it, it does play well off his above-average slider and curveball. He also throws a changeup, albeit mostly to just opposite handed opponents. Wolf has shown improved control this season, as he’s cut his walk rate down. He also throws with a side-arm arm slot.

Po-Yu Chen

One of the Pirates’ 2020-2021 international signings was right-handed Taiwanese pitcher Po-Yu Chen. Chen has steadily worked his way up through the Pirate system and is currently residing at Greensboro where he has a solid 4.00 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, but a 5.24 FIP. Chen does have a decent 23.8% strikeout as well as an 8.4% walk rate. But home runs have given him some trouble with a 1.55 HR/9. Some of that can be attributed to Greensboro’s home run friendliness. Plus, he’s been very good since May, owning a 3.05 ERA, 4.85 FIP, and 1.21 WHIP over his last 79.2 innings.

Chen only sits in the low-90s, typically sitting 91-94 MPH. He’ll also throw a slider and a curveball, but his best offering is a splitter that has the potential to be a plus offering. His other stuff sits at a below-average to average level, though he has shown good command over all of his stuff. With Chen’s recent success, he could very well get moved up to Altoona within the next week or two.

Kyle Nicolas

It’s been a rough year for Kyle Nicolas, and an extremely disappointing follow up after a solid, and even promising 2022 campaign. Nicolas owns a 5.99 ERA, 5.01 FIP, and 1.71 WHIP. Although he has a strikeout rate of 26.1%, it’s about the only positive you can draw from his year. He also has a 1.47 HR/9 and 12.3% walk rate. Nicolas was promoted to Triple-A earlier this year, but it’s resulted in an ERA over 9.00 (9.35).

While it’s been a rough go of things for Nicolas, he still throws a good fastball, as well as a good slider. There were always questions as to whether or not he would need to move to the bullpen long-term, and this might be it. His curveball was average at best and he barely had a change-up. Plus so-so command compounded the lack of an above-average third offering. We’ll see how the Pirates move forward with Kyle Nicolas.

Braxton Ashcraft

Braxton Ashcraft was a second-round pick in 2018, but this is the first time he’s getting an extended look as a professional. Ashcraft played at short-season levels in 2018-2019, didn’t pitch in 2020 because of the canceled season, then pitched less than 50 IP in 2021 before undergoing Tommy John surgery, which knocked him out of 2022 as well. Regardless, he’s returned strong, working to a 2.54 ERA, 2.87 FIP, and 1.13 WHIP. The right-hander has struck out nearly 30% of opponents (29.7%), while keeping a strong 5.4% walk rate, and 0.72 HR/9.

Ashcraft is now working in the upper-90s with spin on his four-seam fastball. He’ll also complement that pitch with a slider and curveball, which are about average offerings. If Ashcraft has such a good fastball, a solid curveball and slider to complement it, and a strong walk rate, then why isn’t he at least a borderline top-100 prospect? Well he is still recovering to some degree. The Pirates have yet to use Ashcraft as a typical starter, giving him less than five innings in all of his outings. Regardless of if he ends up as a starting or relief pitcher, he is still a prospect to watch.

Teenagers Who Could Rise Significantly In The Near Future

This category consists of the Pirates’ most recent top international signees and high school draft picks. Typically these guys aren’t highly ranked on prospect boards. However, that’s mostly because they’re still so young with raw talent. Plus they’ve yet to really play against professional opponents. There’s a good chance that in two or three years, they might be some of the Pirates’ best prospects.

Michael Kennedy

Michael Kennedy is one of the Pirates’ best left-handed pitching prospects and the only high school arm they signed from their 2022 draft class. Kennedy has pitched 32.2 innings for the Pirates’ FCL affiliate team, working to the tune of a 2.48 ERA, 3.35 FIP, and 1.26 WHIP. Kennedy has struck out 32.8% of his opponents, as well as allowing just one home run. The only thing is he’s put up a mediocre 11.7% walk rate.

Kennedy is sitting 89-91 MPH, though his four-seamer does have traits that make up for a lack of elite velocity. FanGraphs states his fastball has tail and can carry through the zone. The lefty also throws a slider and a changeup. His lower three-quarters arm slot helps create a two-plane break on his slider. He also has an easily repeatable delivery, which will help his command in the long run. Kennedy is one of the youngest prospects in the system, as he won’t turn 19 until late November.

Zander Mueth

Zander Mueth is our second 2023 draft pick we’ll look at today. Mueth was taken in competitive balance round B. Mueth is a big right-hander, sitting at 6’6”, 205 pounds at just 18 (he turned 18 just recently in late June), and has a wind-up that is similar to both Chris Sale and Tanner Houck. 

For a young high schooler who is barely 18, Mueth is throwing hard. He’s averaging 92-94 MPH and peaking at 97. This is especially true given that he has a Sale/Houck-like arm angle. You’re talking about a guy who might be sitting 93-96 MPH by the time he’s MLB-ready. His slider has so much breaking action he has trouble keeping it in the zone. Then there’s his changeup, which has the potential to be an average pitch. Mueth does have some questions surrounding his command, but it’s too early to tell if that will be a long-term problem or not.

Jun-Seok Shim

Jun-Seok Shim was the Pirates’ big catch of the day during the 2022-2023 international signing period. Shim was projected to be one of the top picks in the Korean Baseball Organization’s amateur draft. However, instead of being picked by one of the KBO’s teams, he opted to go stateside and signed with the Pirates. Shim hasn’t pitched much, but has definitely flashed the talent that made him arguably the best amateur pitcher in South Korea.

Shim was already topping out at 100 MPH as an 18-year-old. He typically sits 95-98 MPH, which is still extremely fast for a high school aged kid. His best secondary pitch is his 12-6 curveball, a second offering with plus or better potential. Both his slider and changeup lag behind but have shown the potential to be reliable pitches. Shim isn’t just a hard-throwing kid with no accuracy. He has shown to have a good feel for all of his stuff. Plus, he has a lower-effort delivery and has good athleticism to boot, which only helps in the long run.

Notable Unranked Names

Not being a ranked prospect doesn’t mean that you’ll never been a good Major League player. Some very good Major Leaguers didn’t get much, if any attention by prospect evaluators. The Pirates certainly have some notable names that aren’t on very many radars.

Sean Sullivan

Sean Sullivan is still one of my favorite unranked prospects in the system. The right-hander was the team’s 8th round pick in 2021. After an up-and-down 2022 season where he flashed potential, Sullivan was then sent to Altoona, where things have been a bit more bumpy. In 74 innings, Sullivan owns a 4.26 ERA, 4.35 FIP, and 1.32 WHIP. Although his walk rate sits at 8.2%, he has a sub-20% strikeout rate (19.5%), and an HR/9 rate of 1.34. Although his HR/9 rate is much better than last season, some of that is just regression to the norm, as he had a 26.7% HR/FB ratio last year, and a more normal 9.3% rate this season.

Sullivan is deceptively young, only 22 years old. He sits 92-95 MPH with his fastball and has some deception to his wind-up. He throws with an almost side arm like wind-up before going with a more typical arm slot. He also throws a slider, change-up, and curveball. Nothing here is elite, or even above average, however, he does show good command over everything.

J.P. Massey

J.P. Massey is another 2022 draftee, coming in the 7th round. The right-hander has a pretty solid 3.54 ERA and 1.35 WHIP, but an atrocious 5.03 FIP. Massey has a 23.8% strikeout rate and 0.92 HR/9, but a 13.6% walk rate. Granted, some of these numbers are a bit inflated. In the two games, Massey came out of the bullpen at the start of the season, he gave up six earned runs and four walks. Plus a few bad starts since getting moved to Greensboro have thrown off his bottom line.

Massey throws pretty hard for a starting pitching prospect, sitting 92-96 MPH. He pairs that with a slider, curveball, and changeup. Massey has a lively arm but has struggled with command, both through the early part of his pro career as well as throughout his time in college. 

Derek Diamond

Derek Diamond was selected in the 6th round of the 2022 draft. The right-hander, while showing great control, did not fare well for Ole Miss during their World Series push. Regardless, Diamond started out his 2023 season with a 3.98 ERA, 3.70 FIP, and .123 WHIP in 74.2 innings for Bradenton. Although his 20.4% strikeout rate was unimpressive at best, Diamond had a walk rate a shade under 5% at 4.9%, 53.3% ground ball rate, and HR/9 rate of 0.6. Because of his solid remarks at Bradenton, Diamond has since gotten promoted to Greensboro where he’s allowed two ER in seven innings, has struck out five, and has only allowed a single walk.

Diamond sits in the low-90s with his fastball and has plus spin. He also throws a slider, as well as a change-up and curveball. Some evaluators liked Diamond at the time of the draft as they saw him as an unfinished product. Diamond is a strongly built 6’2”, 200 pounds, and topped out at 97 during 2022, so there is some potential here.

Hung-Leng Chang

Hung-Leng Chang was one of the Pirates' highest paid international signees from the 2021-2022 off-season. Chang has had a poor 2023 season, though he's only thrown 32.2 innings. However, he owns just a 4.96 ERA, an identical FIP, as well as a 1.44 WHIP. Both Chang's 20.1% strikeout rate and 13.2% walk rate are unimpressive. But he's only allowed two home runs. Chang also was impressive in his first few professional outings in 2022.

Chang does not throw hard, but he is only 21 and has a projectable frame. He is a rail-thin, 6'3", 160 pounds. Chang could add some muscle and velocity, and sit closer to 91-94 MPH by the time he's 23 or 24. Overall, Chang throws five different pitches. Chang has an advanced feel for pitching for such a young prospect as well.

Breakout Prospects

For some prospects, it might take a season or two to find their footing. However, they certainly have the talent to figure things out in the long run. On top of that, they’ll get the chance to show that they were (or are worth) the attention they originally got.

Bubba Chandler

Bubba Chandler was one of the best high school arms in the 2021 draft, but the Pirates were able to sneak him in the third round because of his college commitment. Chandler’s first full season as a pitcher only has had its ups and downs. He currently owns a 5.08 ERA, 4.81 FIP, and 1.58 WHIP on the season. Chandler’s walked more batters than you’d like to see with an 11% walk rate but has a quality 26.4% strikeout rate and 1.16 HR/9. Chandler has seemingly found his groove recently, with a 3.32 ERA, a 27.8% strikeout rate, but a 5.6% walk rate over his last 43.1 innings.

Chandler has a plus fastball, along with a quality slider. His other two pitches include a curveball and changeup. There were some expected growing pains for the young, but talented pitcher. He was a two-way player, and this is the first season that he’s focused solely on pitching. He’s athletic, as the Pirates drafted him as an RHP/SS, but some of his issues with command are rooted in his wind-up and delivery. However, Chandler is still highly talented and has already shown some improvement. Plus he’s only 20, and by the end of 2024, he could be pushing for a Major League promotion, assuming some of these improvements stick.

Owen Kellington

Owen Kellington was an unheralded high schooler out of Vermont. Kellington had some insane numbers in college, and the Pirates took the righty in the fourth round. Kellington’s first extended look against pro batters hasn’t gone too well, pitching to a 4.35 ERA, 4.81 FIP, and 1.38 WHIP. Although he has a 27.8% strikeout rate, but has a below-average 1.05 HR/9 rate and a 14.3% walk rate. One thing Kellington does have going for him is that he’s been pretty good over his last six outings, with a 3.18 ERA, 4.01 FIP, and 1.01 WHIP.

While we’ve looked at a lot of pitchers who aren’t hard throwers, Kellington is the definition of a soft tosser. In his most recent outing, Kellington only averaged 90.6 MPH on his four-seam fastball. Kellington’s fastball does not have velocity, but Kellington is a junkballer. He uses a low-spin tumbler as his primary off-speed pitch, as well as a big curveball. His change and curve both have the potential to be plus offerings. It will be interesting to see if Kellington can keep pitching well, and put it all together eventually.