Pittsburgh Pirates Prospects: Dissecting the Struggles of Jared Jones & Anthony Solometo

Jared Jones

Let’s start with Jones. After an outstanding start to the season at Altoona, the hard-throwing righty was sent to Triple-A Indianapolis, and his numbers aren’t bad, but they’re not great either. He has a 4.78 ERA, 3.73 FIP, and 1.29 WHIP. Jones’ 28.5% strikeout rate is an improvement from Double-A, but his walk rate has gone up by about 1% (9.8%), and his HR/9 is 0.81. That’s still solid, but another area that has gotten worse.

Those numbers might not be horrible, but a let down after his strong start to the season. Without context and just looking at it from a glance, you might start to worry about his performance. But once you are given some context of the kind of league Jones is pitching in and how old he is, Jones’ numbers actually look pretty good.

The International League is as hitter-friendly, if not more, than during the peak of the steroid era. Batters are hitting .261/.356/.439 with an OPS of .795. Having an ERA of 5.00 makes you better than league average (5.19 is the average). The most hitter friendly year in baseball since the turn of the 1900s was 2000, where the league average triple-slash was .270/.345/.437, and the average ERA was 4.77.

Jones and his 4.78 ERA is nearly a half run better than average. Triple-A is also experimenting with the automated strike zone, which many pitchers are still getting used to. Jones pitched part of the season without it at Double-A before having to make the adjustments with an automated strike zone at Indy.

Jones’ other rate statistics are also much better than the league average. Walks are handed out like candy on Halloween as the league average walk rate is 11.8%. The average strikeout rate is just over 20% at 21.7%.

Home runs are also fairly common, as the HR/9 in the Eastern League is 1.30. On average, there’s about a hit per inning (9.0 H/9 rate), while Jones has a 7.9 H/9. Jones is significantly better in all respective statistics.

Here are some other noteworthy facts about Jones’ season. There are 82 pitchers with at least 70 innings pitched in the International League. Jones ranks top ten in FIP (5th), xFIP (6th), WHIP (8th), strikeout rate (4th), and HR/9 (T-9th). He is also top 15 in batting average against (13th), and K:BB ratio (11th). Even though his ERA is a tad high, take into consideration his .321 batting average on balls in play, which could be inflating his ERA slightly. I think it’s reasonable to say that Jones is a top 10 pitcher in the International League this season.

Also, just keep in mind that Jones is in his age-21 season (turned 22 in the first week of August), and he’s pitched over 70 innings (77.1 to be exact). He is the second youngest pitcher at Triple-A this season to have thrown at least 50 frames. The only one younger than him is San Francisco Giants’ top pitching prospect Kyle Harrison, who is only younger by six days.

Overall, Jones’ 2023 campaign is the 13th youngest at Triple-A over the last five seasons.  He is also the 7th youngest pitcher to have thrown at least 70 innings in the International League over the last decade (since 2013). Jones has also done well over his last four starts, only allowing six earned runs, striking out 25, walking just eight, and allowing two home runs over his last 24 innings of work.

Anthony Solometo

The other guy that some might start worrying about is Anthony Solometo. Like Jones, Solometo got off to an outstanding start before getting promoted to the next level. But over his last 51.2 innings, Solometo has a 4.35 ERA, 3.83 FIP, and 1.22 WHIP. He has a strong 6.5% walk rate , though a so-so 1.05 HR/9 and 23% K%. Batters are also hitting .245 against him.

When you look at it on paper without context, it looks like Solometo is struggling, badly. Double-A is where you see the separation between prospects and minor leaguers, and Solometo and an ERA above 4.00 doesn’t look too pretty. But that’s without context. Here’s what I see once adding context.

The league average ERA in the Eastern League is 4.27, which Solometo is less than a tenth of a run worse than. Batters take walks at a 10.8% rate, but Solometo is well below 8%. Solometo’s HR/9 rate is 1.05, which is exactly league average. Base runners aren’t much of an issue for the lefty, as his 1.22 WHIP is better than the 1.38 league average rate.

The only rate stat he is worse than league average by 1% or greater is strikeout rate. The league average is 25.7% while his is 23%. Even though his ERA is above 4.00, if you take out his shortest start of the season where he allowed three earned runs in just one frame, his ERA drops to 3.91.

Plus you also have to take this into consideration. Solometo won’t turn 21 until December second. He’s already pitched over 50 innings at Double-A in his age-20 campaign. Over the last five minor league seasons, there have been just 24 pitchers to have thrown at least 50 IP in their age 20 or younger season at the Double-A level. That’s out of 1390 pitchers. Of those 24, five have come from the Eastern League, including Solometo.  There have been just 30 pitchers in the last decade to have thrown at least 50 innings at Double-A in their age-20 season over the last decade, and Solometo is one of them.

Instead of looking at it as a top prospect struggling at arguably the most important level of the minor leagues, maybe we should look at it as Solometo being the 13th youngest pitcher to throw 50+ innings at Double-A over the last five years in one season. He is also the youngest pitcher in the Eastern League this year to have thrown at least 50 frames by over a whole year younger. Not only has he been able to reach Double-A at an age where many top prospects are still at Low-A, he’s been able to produce league average numbers as well.

You can call it a glass half full perspective, you can call me biased, and you could say I am only looking at it through rose colored glasses. But like all things in life, context matters. Things have nuance, and what you see at first glance isn’t always the full story.

Here’s what I see: I see two young pitchers who have immense talent whose numbers aren’t great at two levels where they’re one of the youngest pitchers in their respective leagues. They’re young enough that they wouldn’t look out of place at Low-A or High-A ball. The fact they’ve been able to put up respectable numbers should mean something, even if they aren’t jumping off the page.