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Pittsburgh Pirates Prospects in Position to Make Their MLB Debut in 2023
The 2023 season should see plenty of Pirate prospects graduate from the minor leagues to make their MLB debuts
The Pittsburgh Pirates are nearing their way to contention. They've made a handful of additions this offseason, and with time left to make more additions, they might not be done after all. But the future of this team is going to rely on the prospects. The Pirates have built up a strong farm system, and many of the players they have acquired throughout this rebuild could debut next season.
Today, I want to take a glance at every single prospect who could debut this year. Now that doesn't mean that all of these prospects will make a significant impact. Some will, but some might make their debut and get optioned back to the minor leagues, and some might not even lose their prospect status.
It should be a fun season ahead, with the return of Andrew McCutchen and the arrival of some exciting prospects, so whom could we expect to see make their debuts in 2023?
Position Players
The big name we'll get out of the way first is Endy Rodriguez. The switch-hitting catcher batted 323/.407/.590. Rodriguez's 11.3% walk rate and 19% strikeout rate was the fourth year in a row the backstop had a sub-20% strikeout rate and walk rate above 10%. On top of that, he had a .266 isolated slugging percentage with 25 dingers. Between his outstanding plate discipline and plus power, Rodriguez had a 166 wRC+ and .434 wOBA.
Despite how good Rodriguez's final line was, it doesn't do his performance enough justice. After a freezing cold month of April, Rodriguez would then go on to hit .339/.429/.632 with a 182 wRC+. After the all-star break, Rodriguez was nigh-unstoppable. He batted for a wRC+ well over 200 at 221 (121% above league average), with an OPS of 1.228 and wOBA at .516.
After Endy, we have another highly touted catching prospect, this time in the form of former first-overall pick Henry Davis. Davis was only healthy enough for 255 plate appearances but hit .264/.380/.472 with a .385 wOBA and 135 wRC+. Davis had a solid 8.2% walk rate with a 20% strikeout rate. Power is Davis' calling card, and he hit for a .208 isolated slugging percentage last season. Davis's injuries weren't all his fault, either. Davis was hit by 20 pitches. Only two minor league players have been hit 20+ times in a season in less than 300 plate appearances in the upper levels of the minor leagues (Double-A and Triple-A) since 2006. It's only happened once at the major league level since the Dead Ball Era.
Next, we have what I consider the team's most undervalued prospect, Nick Gonzales. Gonzales is coming off a season in which he batted .263/.383/.429 with a .365 wOBA and 121 wRC+. Although he worked a walk in 13.6% of his plate appearances, he also had a 28.5% strikeout rate. However, Gonzales had an atrocious start to the year. While the second baseman did miss about two months, his final 219 plate appearances of the season saw him slash .306/.411/.506 with a .403 wOBA, 150 wRC+. He had a much more manageable 24.2% strikeout rate, and through the final month of his season, he only struck out in 20.7% of his trips to the plate.
The Pirates had a few prospects breakout last season, but Matt Gorski went on an absolute tear with the bat this year. Gorski slashed .280/.358/.598 through 325 plate appearances. He had a wOBA above .400 at .411 and a wRC+ just above 150 at 152. Gorski had a 10.2% walk rate, but power was his strong suit, as he hit 24 home runs with a .318 isolated slugging percentage. On top of providing incredible power, he also swiped 21 bases in 24 attempts. Gorski mostly plays the outfield but has seen a handful of games at first base. Overall, he's generally considered a decent defensive outfielder with a strong arm. As Marty recently wrote, Gorski could have a big 2023 campaign.
Acquired at the trade deadline, Malcom Nuñez also is coming off a breakout 2022 campaign. Plus, he's the Pirates' top first base prospect. Nuñez posted a quality .265/.367/.466 line between the Cardinal and Pirate Double-A affiliates and Triple-A Indy. He also had a fantastic 14% walk rate and a 20.9% strikeout rate. Nuñez's .204 isolated slugging percentage was a career-best for him. Nuñez had an outstanding summer as he put up a .913 OPS, .396 wOBA, and 136 wRC+ from June through the end of the year. He also made some major improvements compared to his last two seasons that helped him capitalize on his plus raw power.
One prospect whose minor league performance has gotten overlooked is Jared Triolo. Triolo batted .282/.376/.419. Triolo walked at a 12.7% rate with a strikeout rate of just 17.6%. Although Triolo saw his power decrease from 2022 to 2022, Triolo still had a 121 wRC+. This marks the third season in a row Triolo struck out less than 20% of the time with a wRC+ of at least 110. Like Nunez, Triolo heated up when the weather started to get warmer. From June through the end of the season, the infielder had a .878 OPS, .385 wOBA, and 140 wRC+. He also had a 165 wRC+ and OPS approaching 1.000 at .995 after the All-Star Break. Triolo is considered an outstanding defensive third baseman, but he more than holds his own at shortstop. He's also fast enough to play the outfield, in which he saw a few games in center, and is willing to play both positions on the right side of the infield.
The Pirates do have two outfield prospects who have a chance to make their debut. That is Matt Fraizer and Connor Scott. Both Scott and Fraizer are coming off a poor season. However, Frazier had an amazing 2021, and Scott was also reasonably solid in 2021. Although they might not be the best prospects the Pirates have to offer, both could fill a fourth outfield role in the future.
Starting Pitchers
Pittsburgh's top pitching prospect Quinn Priester is set to take over a regular starting rotation role sometime this year. The former first-rounder worked to a 3.09 ERA, 3.59 FIP, and 1.21 WHIP. Priester has never been a big strikeout pitcher, but he still managed a respectable 23.6% strikeout rate. He also had a solid 8.0% walk rate, but his biggest strength is inducing ground balls and preventing home runs. Priester had a 50.6% ground ball rate and a 0.60 HR/9. But two of the six home runs he allowed came in two of his final three starts. Priester allowed 11 earned runs in his 17th and 19th start of the season. Despite these two outings making up just 8.9% of his innings pitched, the number of runs he allowed totaled a third of the total earned runs he let in all year. Outside of these two outings, Priester's ERA drops from 3.09 to 2.40.
Preister throws in the mid-to-high-90s, working with both a fastball and sinker. His curveball is one of the best of its kind in the minor leagues. Priester has also developed his slider to an above-average degree. Although most evaluators aren't very bullish on Priester, it's mostly because he doesn't miss bats. But he still posts an average to slightly above average strikeout rate and gets a ton of ground balls.
Mike Burrows is also set to become a regular starting pitcher in the major leagues sometime this year. Burrows worked to a 4.01 ERA but 3.29 FIP and 1.21 WHIP. Unlike Priester, Burrows gets a ton of strikeouts. His 28.2% strikeout rate is the second year in a row he's had a strikeout rate above 28%. He also had a walk rate of just 7.9%, making his K:BB ratio 3.58. Despite not being a ground ball pitcher, he still had a quality 0.76 HR/9. The final start of the season also saw Burrows a ton of earned runs. He only pitched two-thirds of an inning but allowed six earned runs, making up 14.3% of his total ER allowed but less than 1% of the total innings he pitched. Burrows entered that game with a 3.46 ERA/3.11 FIP/1.15 WHIP.
Burrows has always been known for his devastating fastball/curveball. The right-hander is a spin-rate darling, consistently working with above 2500 RPM on his fastball and 3000 RPM with his curveball. But his change-up has always been considered a distant third pitch. However, over the past two seasons, Burrows has made major strides with his third offering to the point it's an extremely usable pitch.
One of the Pirates' biggest additions from the 2021-2022 off-season, Kyle Nicolas, is coming off a quality 2022 campaign. He could end up being the most overlooked Pirates pitching prospect going into 2023. Nicolas had a 3.97 ERA, 4.30 FIP, and 1.30 WHIP in 90.2 innings of work. Nicolas had a strong 25.9% strikeout rate to go with a decent .89 HR/9, though he also dished out a free pass to 12.1% of opponents faced. His overall numbers were not very impressive, but there is one start you can trace back to inflating his season numbers. During his third start of the year, Nicolas allowed eight earned runs on four home runs in just two innings. Outside of that, he had a 3.25 ERA, and his HR/9 dropped to 0.51.
Nicolas is a hard-throwing right-hander, typically working in the mid-to-upper 90s. He also has a plus-plus slider. However, his curveball is average at best, and his change-up is barely considered a fourth offering. That leads many to believe he ends up in the bullpen long term. But if he can show even just slight improvement with his curveball next year and show he can handle Triple-A batters, that outlook may change.
Former first-round competitive balance pick Carmen Mlodzinski is also on track for a 2023 debut. Mlodzinski had an up-and-down 2022. The right-hander owned a poor 4.78 ERA and 1.41 WHIP but also had a solid 3.77 FIP, 24.1% strikeout rate, 8.7% walk rate, and 0.85 HR/9. Mlodzinski showed the talent to be a decent pitcher, though it came in spurts rather than consistency.
Mlodzinski sits in the mid-90s while also throwing a slider and change-up. He has a high ceiling, though a low floor. Next year will be a make-or-break season for Mlodzinski, but at 24 and starting the season at Indy, there's a decent chance he at least makes his major league debut in some role.
Relief Pitchers
Colin Selby may have been the most surprising player among Pirate minor league arms last season. A late-round selection out of a D3 college, Selby never appeared to be more than organizational depth. But he made some major improvements in 2022 and even earned a 40-man roster spot. Selby owned a 2.27 ERA, 2.92 FIP, and 1.21 WHIP through 35.2 innings. Selby struck out nearly 30% of the opponents he faced (28.9%) with an outstanding 0.50 HR/9 rate. The right-hander had a ground ball rate above 50%, which is one of the reasons he prevented home runs as well as he did.
Selby's weakest number was his walk rate. He had a 9.4% walk rate, which is still a more than a manageable number. Selby throws a high-90s fastball with a plus slider and curveball. Selby definitely has the potential to become a high-leverage reliever sometime next year. He, along with Yerry De Los Santos, Colin Holderman, and David Bednar, could form an extremely underrated back-of-the-bullpen quintuple.
Tahnaj Thomas had a fantastic summer last year, rebounding from an awful 2021 and reinventing himself as a reliever. From June through September, the flamethrower managed a 1.98 ERA, 2.70 FIP, and 1.05 WHIP. Thomas has always been a great strikeout pitcher and had a 28.5% K-rate, but walks have consistently been an issue. However, during this stretch, he cut his BB% down to just 6.9%. On top of that, he had a .5 HR/9 rate.
Thomas has a fastball that can hit triple digits. Along with that, his slider is above average. Though his change-up is rarely used, and when he has used it, it's well below average. That has always been the sticking point for Thomas, as he's consistently been a two-pitch pitcher. But after being put into a position where he could take advantage of his strengths and adjust to his new role, Thomas went on a hot streak and put up great numbers.
J.C. Flowers is certainly one of the more interesting names in the Pirates' system. An outfielder during college, the fourth-round pick is still fairly new to pitching. Nevertheless, he has some very good stuff on the mound to go with plus-plus athleticism. Flowers also didn't get off to a great start, but by June, he was fully settled in. His final 38 innings saw him post a 2.61 ERA, 3.31 FIP, and 1.03 WHIP. Batters struggled to get hits off of Flowers, holding them to a .184 average against. Plus, he had a 27.3% strikeout rate, a 9.1% walk rate, and a .47 HR/9.
The outfielder-turned-pitcher can hit the upper-90s with his fastball and typically sits in the 94-96 MPH range. However, his slider is the real weapon. It's one of the best in the minor leagues. He also throws a two-seamer and a change-up with average potential. Flowers pitched multiple innings in most of his outings and made two starts all season. The pitch mix and athleticism give him a brighter outlook than most relief prospects. It would be nice to see him receive a larger workload and become a starter. Flowers does have the excuse of not having much experience under his belt. He has 203.1 innings between college and professional levels.
Undrafted free agents typically aren't considered to be among your top prospects, but Nick Dombkowski will certainly get a chance to prove himself next season. Dombkowski played at three levels of the minor leagues, starting the season at Bradenton and ending the year at Altoona. All told, he pitched 67.1 innings, working to a 3.06 ERA, 3.26 FIP, and 1.10 WHIP. Dombkowksi had the best strikeout rate among Pirate minor league relievers at 30.7% but also had a healthy 6.8% walk rate and 0.94 HR/9.
Despite the number of strikeouts he induced, Dombkowski only works in the 88-91 MPH range. But he throws a slider with above-average spin and a change-up with decent movement. His best tool is his ability to locate, which helps his stuff play up. Dombkowski worked in a swing-man role, making 36 total appearances and two starts. He might not be a high-leverage guy, but there's definitely value in a pitcher who can go two innings at a time.
Another left-handed reliever of note is Tyler Samaniego. A 14th-round draft pick, Samaniego is coming off a season in which he had a 2.46 ERA, 3.45 FIP, and .80 WHIP. Samaneigo struck out just over a quarter of opponents with a 25.5% strikeout rate and allowed just two home runs in 47.2 innings. The southpaw's ground ball rate of 57% was the seventh best among Pirate minor league arms with 30+ innings pitched.
There were a few worrying factors about his season, though. While the lefty decreased his walk rate from 16.2% to 7.8% after moving from Greensboro to Altoona, his strikeout rate plummeted from 35.3% to just 19.8%. He also had a .142 batting average on balls in play. Granted, he was a heavy ground ball pitcher, but that is still extremely low. But Samaniego definitely could carve out a role in the Pirates' bullpen. If either Jarlín García or Jose Hernandez struggles, then you might see Samaniego take over their role.
Cody Bolton had a solid rebound campaign. Although there were a few red flags, he could become a solid swingman-like pitcher. After missing two years of playing time, Bolton had a 3.09 ERA, 3.81 FIP, and 1.28 WHIP. He struck out just over a quarter of the batters he faced with a 25.4% strikeout rate while only allowing four home runs in 75.2 innings. But the red flags were that he had a 12.4% walk rate and an HR/FB ratio of 5.1%, making his HR/9 rate's sustainability questionable.
Next. Opportunity Knocking for Tahnaj Thomas. dark
He mostly worked in a swing-man role, with 14 starts across 30 appearances. Bolton has never been a flamethrower and sits in the 91-94 MPH range. Nevertheless, his fastball, slider, and changeup are all average to slightly above-average offerings. Bolton will turn 25 in Mid/late June. In the event of an injury, he might be one of the first guys promoted.