Pittsburgh Pirates Prospects: Minor League Season Predictions

The Pittsburgh Pirates still have a strong farm system, so let's make some predictions for the upcoming 2023 season

Earlier this month, I took a shot at some Pittsburgh Pirates' predictions for their 2023 season. With the amount of talent at Triple-A and on the big league roster, it will surely be an interesting year. Overall, it should be a transition season. While the Pirates may not be contenders, they should at least start to see marketable improvements throughout the team. At the end of the season, we could be looking at a pretty decent team.

But now I want to take a look at some predictions for the minor leagues. Despite having some top prospects graduate, the Pirates still have a deep farm system that ranks top 10 among most evaluators. My predictions are based on a few things: who will be in the farm system, what level they will play at, how much they are projected to play, and some other subjective/objective factors. I also am not considering guys who are projected to break their rookie status at some point this season, so don't expect to see Endy Rodriguez, Luis Ortiz, Quinn Priester, or the like here, even though they are highly talented players.

Top Performing Position player Prospect
Henry Davis

Now don't see this as I think that Termarr Johnson will not be a great performer. But Henry Davis will start the year in the upper levels of the minor leagues, which I am taking into account. Davis will start the year at Altoona and potentially make his debut. Meanwhile, Johnson will likely start the year at Bradenton and make it to Greensboro.

Davis produced pretty good results with the bat, slashing .264/.380/.472 through 255 plate appearances. The backstop displayed solid plate discipline with an 8.2% walk rate and 20% strikeout rate. Davis, known for his power, had a .208 isolated slugging percentage. At the end of the season, Davis had a .385 wOBA and 136 wRC+.

The strange part of Davis' season comes in the number of times he was hit by a pitch. He was plunked 20 times in total, which, in less than 300 plate appearances, is almost unheard of. Some of these hit by pitches were the main root of his injuries throughout the year. Davis missed chunks of May, July, and August.

When he's healthy, Davis shows off the kind of offensive potential that made him a top-three talent in the 2021 draft. He'll be that .280 batter with an ISO of at least .250 many are looking forward to. He'll definitely make his debut sometime next season, but it might be late into the year. It will at least be in the second half, which puts into question if he would graduate to rookie status. If that is the case, the next guy up would be Termarr Johnson.

Biggest Pitcher Breakout
Jared Jones

The Pirates' 2020 second-round pick, Jared Jones, showed massive amounts of potential at Bradenton in 2021. His solid seasons at Low-A earned him the promotion to Greensboro the following year, but he failed to live up to the expectations. Although, it should be noted that he was very young for the level.

In 122.2 innings, Jones worked to a 4.62 ERA, 4.85 FIP, and 1.35 WHIP. Although Jones posted a similar ERA in 2021, his FIP jumped by nearly a whole run. He still carried a healthy 26.7% strikeout rate and cut his walk rate down below 10% to 9.3%, however, his HR/9 rate went from just 0.82 the previous season to 1.39 the following year. Now granted, Greensboro is known as a hitter's paradise, and the league average ERA in the South Atlantic League was 4.46, but it was not a great sophomore season for Jones either way.

So why do I think Jones can improve at arguably the minor league's most determining level? The first reason is Jones had an HR/FB ratio of 16%, about a 4% uptick from 2021. If he can get that back down to 12%-ish, his HR/9 will drop significantly. The difference between a 16% HR/FB ratio and a 12% HR/FB ratio on 150 ground balls is six home runs (24 to 18). There's also no question Jones has the stuff to back up a great performance.

Jones typically works in the upper-90s with a plus-plus slider. Along with his fastball/slider, he also throws an above-average curveball and decent changeup. The major question mark when the Pirates drafted Jones was if he could harness his powerful arsenal, and he has certainly developed in terms of limiting walks and locating his offerings.

It's not as if Jones hasn't shown he can be a decent pitcher. He was trending upward heading into the 2022 campaign after looking very good at Bradenton. Double-A may be a real test for him, but I believe that he has the talent and potential to conquer Altoona. He definitely has the stuff to play at that level.

Biggest Position Player Breakout
Lonnie White Jr.

I could go with a less bold option here and a less risky one like Tsung-Che Cheng or Yordany De Los Santos, but Lonnie White Jr. certainly is both bold and risky. The top outfield prospect will likely miss at least the first month to month-and-a-half of 2023; however, once he's back to 100%, he has the potential to become what the Pirates saw in him back when they signed him to a big over slot deal in 2021.

It's not as if White Jr. hasn't shown he can be a highly productive player. In 40 career plate appearances, White Jr. has batted .263/.300/.579 with a .388 wOBA and 123 wRC+. He's shown off his power potential in the small sample size, hitting for an ISO over .300 (.316) and hitting three home runs. Not only is White Jr. a risky pick here because of his injury, but he has also struck out 17 times to oppose just two base-on-balls (42.5% strikeout rate, 5% walk rate).

On the flip side of things, White Jr. has the tools to become one of the Bucs' best prospects. He has lightning-quick bat speed, which helps him generate above-average pop. He's also one of if not the fastest minor leaguer the Pirates have, and he's an outstanding defensive outfielder. He has the potential to be a 20/20 Gold Glove threat from center field but has the arm to play in a corner if need be.

Sure, with his injury and the strikeouts, White Jr. is one of the Pirates' highest-risk, but his tools make him one of the team's highest-reward prospects as well. Once he returns to Bradenton in late May/early June, I think he'll rebound after a rough start to 2023 and finish the year on an extremely high note.

Best Newcomer
Thomas Harrington

It was hard to pick who I think will end up being the Pirates' best minor league rookie. Jun-Seok Shim definitely has the potential to be that, but because he'll likely not play a full season, that bumps him just below Thomas Harrington. Harrington is a right-hander who the Bucs selected in the first round with their competitive balance pick.

Selected out of Campbell University, Harrington put the finishing touches on an impressive 2022 campaign that saw him work to a 2.53 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 6.17 K:BB ratio through 92.2 innings. He struck out 30% of the batters he faced with a minute 4.9% walk rate. Both pale in comparison to him allowing just a single home run for a 0.10 HR/9 rate.

Many evaluators believe that Harrington is the high-floor/low-ceiling type of prospect. He only sits in the low-90s and relies on a slider, changeup, and curveball. However, his ability to spin his fastball helps it ride through the zone. His changeup is a plus-plus pitch, and his slider also sits at an above-average level. His curveball is the worst of the bunch, but it's still not a terrible pitch, and he can certainly use it effectively.

There are a few other factors that may help him in the long run and help him play beyond his prospect profile. He currently stands at 6'2", 185 pounds, giving him some projection to work with. He also has plus command, which helps his stuff play up. Another factor is his good athleticism he shows on the mound.

Super Sleeper Position Player Prospect
Hudson Head

When the Pirates traded Joe Musgrove, arguably the most worthwhile prospect in the return at the time was Hudson Head. The former third-rounder was an over-slot signing by the San Diego Padres in 2019 and fell to the third round because of his high school football career getting in the way of his baseball career. Either way, Head has posted average to above-average numbers since arriving to the Pirates, but in a three-true-outcome manner that comes with a whole lot of risk.

Head only batted .234/.343/.387 with a .339 wOBA, and 104 wRC+. The only positives he brought with the bat was a good OBP fueled by an 11.2% walk rate and 13 stolen bases but in 21 attempts. Head's .153 isolated slugging percentage wasn't terrible but was a 28-point drop from 2021. But the massive red flag was his 33.6% strikeout rate, which is the main cause of his issues with batting.

So what reason should you believe in Head next season? The outfielder ended the season on a very positive note. After the All-Star Break, Head batted .266/.364/.484 with a 13.3% walk rate and .218 isolated slugging percentage. Overall, he had a .380 wOBA and 130 wRC+. But the point I want to focus on the most is his strikeout rate. He still went down on strike three 30.1% of the time, but that was a 5.3% decrease from the start of the year up until the All-Star Break.

His strikeout rate is still a tad worrying, and it was a small sample size of less than 150 plate appearances, but it's still a >5% decrease. Head has the tools to play a decent outfield. He's a great base runner who has flashed an above-average glove. He mostly played in center but has played in both outfield corners.

Head needs to continue cutting his K% down. He's already made a step in the right direction, but not only needs to maintain but improve as well. But I am a believer that he will take that major step forward in 2023, and continue his hot streak from the second half of 2023, and potentially become a future part of the Bucs' outfield.

Super Sleeper Pitching Prospect
Sean Sullivan

One of the Pirates' later-round picks in 2021 was Sean Sullivan. Overshadowed by the likes of Henry Davis, Bubba Chandler, Anthony Solometo, White Jr., and Braylon Bishop, the Bucs' 9th-round selection certainly wasn't a flashy pick, but one that has a chance to thrive next year given some better-batted ball luck.

Sullivan worked to a 4.68 ERA, 5.47 FIP, and 1.36 WHIP throughout 75 innings. The right-hander's 25.8% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate were both above the league average of 25.2% and 10.5%, respectively. Where Sullivan struggled was home runs as he gave up long balls at a 1.92-per-9 rate.

But his home run issue may not be an issue next season. While Jones had a 16% HR/FB ratio, Sullivan's was even higher at 26.7%, the 4th highest among all minor league pitchers with 70+ frames. Sullivan didn't even have a terrible ground ball rate at 41.3%. If his HR/FB ratio was a much more reasonable 12%, he would have had an 0.86 HR/9 (assuming he would induce the same amount of ground balls).

Sullivan isn't much of a flamethrower, averaging out in the low-90s. He throws a slider, curveball, and change-up, but with decent command. Overall, everything plays at about an average level, but his command helps his stuff get the extra oomph. For Sullivan to break out, he just needs better flyball luck. Almost no pitcher is able to sustain an HR/FB ratio over 25%. Since batted ball data started being tracked, an HR/FB ratio of 25%+ has happened just 13 times in the minor leagues and six times in the majors (min. 70 IP),

Top Ranking Prospect
Dylan Crews

If you don't think following along with Dylan Crews hasn't been fun, you either have been living under a rock and don't know who Crews is or hate baseball. Crews is so far out in front of all other draft prospects right now it's not even funny. There's a very good chance that he breaks the all-time signing bonus record for a draft prospect.

Crews' numbers at LSU are otherworldly. He is batting .529/.653/.954 with 19 (nine home runs, ten doubles) total extra-base hits in just 118 plate appearances. That's a rate of about 46 home runs and 51 doubles a season. Batting over .500 and having a slugging percentage approaching one thousand might not even be the most impressive part of his stat line. He's walked over double the amount of times he has struck out with a 27:12 BB:K ratio. That comes out to a 23.4% walk rate and a 10.8% K-rate.

The cherry on top is the exit velocity of over 100 MPH. Sure, it's with an aluminum bat, but you don't maintain an exit velocity over 100 MPH on bat composition alone. Dylan Crews is playing college baseball like it's MLB The Show on rookie difficulty. He has gotten a hit in all but one of his games this year. Even in that one game, he went hitless, he still drew a walk, meaning he has reached base in every single contest. Of his 24 games played, 14 are multi-hit affairs.

Crews is an above-average runner with a strong arm in the outfield. He's mostly played centerfield for LSU this season, where he has shown the talent to be an average to slightly above-average defender up the middle. However, many project him to be a right fielder, where his fielding would play way up. But the fact he could eventually end up as a center fielder long-term is putting the finishing touches on a perfect prospect profile.

There's no doubt that when the Pirates draft Crews, he'll be one of the highest-ranking prospects in baseball. He might even clock in the top ten out of college; he's that good. The Pirates might have taken the best high school hitter in Termarr Johnson and the best college hitter in Crews the draft has seen in almost forever in the past two drafts.